Vote of confidence against Theresa May after a historic defeat

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Uncertainty now hangs over next steps in May. Wednesday at noon, she will face the legislators at the time of questions of the Prime Minister, during which it may be under pressure from those who ask for his resignation.

Immediately afterwards, Parliament will begin to debate a motion of no confidence against May's government, which could bring it down and call a general election.

Although the chances of rejecting the motion are in May's favor, the process is almost certainly ugly and could reveal new divisions within his Conservative party.

If the elections are not called, people calling for a second Brexit referendum will be encouraged, but May warned it could be disastrous.

While opposition Labor remains officially committed to Brexit, support for a second referendum is growing in the party, with senior officials saying they would support a new vote. he could not impose a general election.

On March 29, when the United Kingdom must leave the European Union, the scheme should not be settled yet. Experts have warned that a Brexit without agreement could result in chaos in travel, food shortages and a catastrophic economic collapse.

Will May resign?

Last month, in May, pro-Brexit MPs from his own party challenged the party leadership. They can not launch a second challenge against her for nearly 12 months under party rules.

However, it does not prevent May from resigning and starting a contest to become leader of the Conservative Party and – because the Conservatives are the most important party in Parliament – the Prime Minister.

May announced that she would step down anyway before the next elections scheduled in 2022 under the Parliament's Term Act, which established a five-year term, unless there was a vote of no confidence. to the government.

It is also possible that the Prime Minister – after months of humiliation, stress and opprobrium – may simply choose to leave an increasingly ungrateful role. His predecessor, David Cameron, vowed not to resign when he lost the initial referendum on Brexit, and immediately did so.

Vote of confidence

Once May has pbaded the thorny Question Time on Wednesday, the Labor Party will introduce a motion "that the Senate does not trust Her Majesty's Government".

If the motion succeeds, there are two weeks left for May to regain the confidence of Parliament. Otherwise, a general election must be called.

The signs are not particularly good for the job. The defeat of May Tuesday was largely due to a rebellion led by the right wing of his party. If there is anyone that the arch-Brexiteers hate more than May, it's Labor Party leader Jeremy Corbyn and they have no intention of opening the door to him. Prime Minister.

In theory, workers would be able to overthrow the government without too many conservative rebels if May's allies – the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) of Northern Ireland – broke with the government. Unfortunately for Corbyn, however, the DUP has already announced that it would support the prime minister.
Other opposition parties support the Labor Party's call for the holding of elections. However, unless there is a shocking rebellion, they probably do not have the numbers.

If the Labor Party succeeds, the situation would become even more chaotic: parties would be forced to indicate if and how they would implement Brexit, and the subject would almost certainly dominate the election campaign, potentially upsetting the political landscape.

Second referendum

If – and probably when – the Labor Party would not succeed in overthrowing May's government, the party could start campaigning for a second referendum on keeping in the European Union, according to Party Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer .
Proponents of such a vote believe that this would clarify the situation without dubious claims and since denied before the first vote. However, almost all of these fans belong to the losers group of the 2016 contest.

Proponents of pro-Brexit believe that clarity already exists: the country voted in favor of leaving. They see in a second referendum an undemocratic attempt to reverse a loss.

In a speech on Monday, May said that "the confidence of citizens in the democratic process and their political leaders would suffer catastrophic damage" if a second referendum was held.

Between the two camps, there is great fear, even among those who remain, that a second referendum would be a damaging process that could cause lasting harm to British politics.

Already, warnings from the far right targeting supporters of a second referendum have been announced. A large number of MPs wrote to London police complaining of protesters engaging in "intimidation and potentially criminal acts" in Parliament.

Do not agree Brexit

All the above options will take time, which the UK has more and more.

At present, on March 29, the country will leave the EU without an agreement being in place. By all estimates, this would be disastrous for both the UK economy and its neighbors, and could even affect fuel and food supplies in the UK.

Ireland, its nearest neighbor to the United Kingdom, is reportedly preparing a "mega" package of legislative measures to be decisively adopted by Parliament in the event of non-agreement.
May herself warned that a Brexit without agreement would constitute a "real threat to our (British) union," which could fuel independence in Scotland and Northern Ireland.
Last week, MPs voted in favor of imposing financial restraints on the government in all cases, which would be an attempt by Parliament to avoid the worst option.

Revocation of Article 50

If MPs do not have the time, there is an option that could buy some: request an extension of the March 29 deadline under section 50 or revoke it completely.

Article 50 is the law of the European Union that launched the departure process of the UK, the first EU member to do this.

Until March, the UK remains a member state of the EU. The revocation of Article 50 would suspend the Brexit process and maintain the existing situation. The European Court of Justice has recently decided that London can do this unilaterally without consulting other EU Member States.

"The UK is free to unilaterally revoke the notification of its intention to withdraw from the EU," the court said last month.

That would not necessarily mean Brexit. The United Kingdom can still invoke Article 50 when it has a clear transition plan, but it would give the British Parliament time to resolve the situation. This time would probably be necessary for the holding of a second referendum or a general election.

Some may hope that by doing so, lawmakers could simply stop the whole process. The referendum on Brexit was not legally binding and if Parliament does not want to proceed, it is not obliged to do so.

"If an agreement is impossible and nobody wants anything, then who will have the courage to say what is the only positive solution?" The President of the European Council, Donald Tusk tweeted Tuesday evening.

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