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On January 7, 2019, Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, attends the groundbreaking ceremony of the Tesla Shanghai Gigafactory in Shanghai, China.
Aly Song | Reuters
It seems less and less likely that Tesla will find a buyer to save him from his financial difficulties and offer him an additional source of financing, Bernstein told his clients on Monday.
European auto badyst, Max Warburton, wrote in a note that, although the CEO of Volkswagen is likely to take a look, the offer of buying any of Tesla's badets would not be really supported.
"What are the badets? Tesla no longer has a truly differentiated technology. The production plant is below normal. Gigafactory is probably not essential (and can be claimed by Panasonic) "wrote Warburton. "The brand still has value, even if it declines quickly.The Supercharger network also has some value.So maybe these are recovered.But at what price?"
"We have a hard time selling it," he added.
Tesla used approximately $ 950 million in cash in the first quarter (for a total consumption of $ 5 billion since 2017), raising new concerns about its long-term financial health. A few weeks ago, Tesla managed to raise $ 2.35 billion in new capital, including $ 750 million in common stock and $ 1.6 billion in convertible bonds. Others have suggested that another technology company, such as Apple, could invest and buy Tesla when its badets would be down.
Craig Irwin, an badyst at Roth Capital Partners, told CNBC last month that the electric car maker could have sold to Apple six years ago at $ 240 per share. The stock is down 48% over the last six months to $ 185.16 per share.
Although Warburton is not Bernstein's Tesla badyst, he covers a number of European automakers that could be trapped if Tesla failed. Palo Alto, California-based automaker puts "enormous pressure" on traditional equipment manufacturers' ratings in Europe, Tesla's initial success suggests barriers to entry into the electric vehicle market were not as expensive as expected.
"Its technology seemed ahead of all other OEMs – damaging the relative position of the German brand.Tesla has gained market share from German OEMs in the US, UK and other regions", wrote Warburton.
But "the financial failure of Tesla would force investors to change their views on traditional equipment manufacturers, which would show how difficult it is for a new entrant to succeed," he added. "Most importantly: it would change the opinion about the size and growth rates of the electric vehicle market."
Toni Sacconaghi, Bernstein's senior badyst for Tesla's business, has a stock market weighting of Tesla shares.
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