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The future of the United Kingdom and the way it will leave the European Union were sown with uncertainty after Prime Minister Theresa May announced her resignation from the post of leader of the ruling Conservative Party on 7 June.
Although May remains in office as a lame Prime Minister, until his party chooses his successor (a contest must end by July), whoever takes over will become the new British prime minister .
Among the pioneers are right-wing Brexit supporters such as Boris Johnson and Dominic Raab, win for who could ensure a vision of Brexit that further polarizes an already divided country.
What does the departure of May for Brexit mean?
Britain remains scheduled to leave the EU, with or without a withdrawal agreement, on 31 October.
May has failed three times to gain parliamentary support for a formal agreement she has reached with Brussels and her party disagrees on what needs to be done.
A stumbling block for many conservatives is the "safety net" inserted in the May agreement in order to avoid any threat to the peace process in Northern Ireland, which would keep the UK in a form of customs union with the EU.
"The departure of May does not solve anything, its successor will always have to settle the question of how you will negotiate the exit of the United Kingdom from the EU", David Phinnemore, professor of European politics at Queen's University Belfast, told Al Jazeera.
"All indications are that the EU will not reopen the terms of the withdrawal agreement."
Phinnemore said there were "very few indications" that one of May's potential successors would have a credible plan to advance Brexit.
Tim Bale, a professor of politics at Queen Mary University in London, said the Conservatives were waiting for the EU to show flexibility on a question of solidarity with the Republic of Ireland, which considers that support is essential.
"The EU will not sell Ireland on this issue as this would send a terrible message to other small Member States: when spending is exhausted, the bigger states will betray their interests."
Brexit more likely?
In the absence of a formal withdrawal agreement approved by Parliament, Britain will leave the EU without any agreement – a scenario thatthe economists warn that this could be very damaging.
WHowever, it is unlikely that the conservative prime minister will persuade the EU to reopen negotiations, even threatening a Brexit "without agreement".
But although the move to May probably makes "no agreement" more likely, the Parliament strongly opposes this proposal and many MEPs may try to stop it by demanding a second referendum on Brexit.
"The departure in May paradoxically reinforces the possibility of a collapse without agreement on the part of the EU and a second referendum to prevent this from happening," Bale said.
Despite the bravery of the Brexiteers advocating a "no agreement", it can not be taken for granted that May's successor will accept this scenario.
"Once they realize the consequences of a" no deal ", I do not think anyone who holds the power at that moment wants to engage in this way." Said Phinnemore.
Can the new Prime Minister revive the May agreement?
A new prime minister determined to avoid a "no deal" could end up in May – trying to get a deeply unpopular exit agreement through Parliament.
It's a "distinct possibility" that May's successor eventually pushes a version of his agreement on Brexit, Phinnemore said.
"What we have experienced in recent months is that everyone has criticized May's contract, pointing out what he did not like, without giving a realistic idea of what he would look for." He held his position. "
A key question will be whether candidates such as Johnson will be more successful in forging a compromise between MPs, given that the former Foreign Secretary's negotiating skills have not yet been tested. .
Will the new Prime Minister change tactics?
The backstop is the most thorny problem of the Brexit equation, as the Conservative government is backed by the DUP of Northern Ireland, which hates this idea.
Attention could therefore relate to the relationship between the DUP and May's successor and how he chooses to interpret the support.
It has two elements: proposals to maintain either the whole of the United Kingdom in a form of customs union with the EU or only Northern Ireland.
"It comes down to what is most important for many Brexiteers: is it to maintain Northern Ireland in exactly the same way as the rest of the UK or does it prevent the UK from maintaining To enter a customs union ", Said Phinnemore.
What does May's departure mean for British politics
May's main failure is undoubtedly his failure to convene a country divided by the Brexit referendum and opt for a more partisan approach. In the 2016 referendum, 52% of the British voted for the exit of the EU but 48% voted for the maintenance.
"The lesson of this period was that referendums are binary mechanisms that divide and demand that whoever takes control tries to reunite the country," Bale said.
"If you opt for a partisan solution and you favor one side, you will come as a farmer, as Theresa May did."
The Brexit process also confirmed a drift to the right of the ruling party, which Bale thinks he can accelerate under Johnson and Raab.
"But I would like to caution, I do not think Boris Johnson has an ideological bone in his body, he will simply do what he thinks is in Boris Johnson's best interest, and that can change significantly over time, "said Bale.
"As the mayor of London, he was a social-liberal, and it's only recently since he returned to Parliament and he's been watching Trump from across the Atlantic that he's not the only one in the world. he's reinvented himself as a populist politician. "
When Bale was asked what could happen if the next Prime Minister modeled himself on Trump, he said it would further polarize British society.
"That would mean that the cultural wars that are going on in the United States will be imported to the UK as well," Bale said.
"We will witness a strengthening of political rhetoric and a premium on performance rather than actual political success".
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