When are you going to buy a cell phone?

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The days when people were camping outside the shops to get their hands on the latest smartphone could be numbered, according to recent sales figures.

Despite the dazzling array of new devices on display at the recent world congress in Barcelona: folding phones, button phones, phones with huge batteries, expensive phones, budget phones, phones ready for 5G technology … they do not do not fly exactly shelves.

Samsung's overall operating profits declined 60% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2019.

Apple slashed its iPhone sales forecast earlier this year, slowing down, especially in China.

Since then, he has repositioned himself to focus on services rather than gadgets, unveiling a new streaming TV platform, a gaming portal and a credit card at a prestigious event in March. , which was attended by Oprah Winfrey and actor Reese Witherspoon – with no other camera in sight. .

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Sales in China, the largest telephony market in the world, fell by 20% in February 2019.

This is their lowest level in six years, according to figures released by China Academy, a state-affiliated research unit specializing in information and communication technologies.

Sales had already slowed down in Europe, says Marina Koytcheva, technology markets badyst at CCS Insight, and elsewhere, with the possible exception of India and Africa.

"I do not think I've seen the market with such a negative outlook in the last 10 years," she says.

"I do not think we'll ever see growth again five or ten years ago."

There are several reasons why.

Innovation (or lack of)

The price of high-end phones has increased significantly in recent years. In 2017, Apple boldly beat the price point of $ 1,000 (£ 775) with the iPhone X, followed by Samsung with the Galaxy Note 8.

"In less than a year, the $ 1,000 phone has become quite normal," said Vlad Savov on the Verge technology website in August 2018.

Critics of the phone industry argue that at the same time, innovation is down. Each new device could have a slightly better camera, processors slightly faster than the previous one, but for the average consumer, a black rectangle is almost replaced by another.

In recent weeks, Huawei and Samsung have unveiled a new vision of the black rectangle – the foldable phone.

The Huawei Mate X unfolds in an 8-inch device. It has split screen capabilities, no notch and is ready for 5G.

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At its unveiling, the public was breathless at the price tag of 2,299 euros (2,600 euros).

For those who have this money to spend on a new phone, is it exciting enough to break the global boredom?

"There will be a small number of big fans who will buy these phones, but they will have to lower the price a lot to make an impact," Marina Koytcheva said.

"They will have to start selling in large numbers."

This will only happen if the device can be useful.

"It's an impressive innovation," Ms. Koytcheva says.

"But why do you need it?"

And here's another potential red flag: Samsung has now postponed the launch of its Galaxy Fold as a result of information reporting broken screens.

Large screens, small pockets

The traditionally male-dominated technology sector has been accused of ignoring at least 50% of its target market – women – by failing to recognize that women's trousers' hands and pockets were generally smaller than those of women. men, while the market was flooded with more and more voluminous appliances.

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Caroline Criado-Perez, author of a new book titled Invisible Women, announced on Twitter that the tech giant had not managed to update the only phone compatible with the average female. size of the hand ".

"Poor applause from my arthritic hands," she continued in the thread now removed on Twitter in September 2018.

5G future

The 5G – the next generation of mobile internet – could give phone sales the vital injection they need.

Promises made in this regard include the ability to download a 15-minute video in one second, potentially redundant broadband at home and allowing all your smart gadgets to connect properly to each other.

However, there are no 5G devices on the market yet.

They are on the way – although global security issues threaten to derail the deployment schedule.

The Chinese company Huawei is one of the few manufacturers of the infrastructure required for 5G and several countries, led by the United States, are worried about whether it can be trusted.

The mobile phone provider O2 said that Huawei only represents 5% of its 5G UK infrastructure, but that it would take time and money to delete everything if the government ordered it.

"In October 2018, we expected 5G to have a positive effect on the market this year," said Marina Koytcheva.

"We thought he would support it, but the 5G is coming more slowly than we expected."

Freedom of the phone

And finally – a growing number of people are choosing to completely withdraw from their phones.

• Are you ready to break with your phone?

Last year, France introduced strict rules regarding the use of smartphones in schools, barring their access to all students under 15 years of age.

Apple, Google and Facebook have also released tools that show you the extent of your speaking time – an initiative hailed with amused horror and some criticism.

"It's like locking up an alcoholic in a drinks cabinet and then helping him count the number of bottles he's consumed," said Catherine Miller, policy director of the think tank Doteveryone. .

The response of the phone industry to this desire to come off was to release phones called companions, smaller handsets with more basic features, designed to keep people in touch without keeping them hooked.

It may be debatable to find a solution to spend less time on your big phone, but also for the listening sector, which spends years producing devices specifically designed to maintain our interest.

Marina Koytcheva thinks that the smartphone market is stabilizing after a few hectic years, but expects 2019 to be "a difficult year".

"The annual sales of 2 billion mobile phones seemed so close a few years ago, but could become a distant dream for the industry," she wrote in a report on declining sales.

"Our new five-year outlook provides for 1.9 billion units on an annual basis until 2023."