When is the RBNZ and how could it affect the NZD / USD?

Overview of the RBNZ

We have the RBNZ monetary policy statement issued today, which appears much later than usual, the time has been postponed to 12 am / 9am Sing / HK or 0100 GMT.

The markets are seeking that the RBNZ maintain the OCR at 1.75%, but potentially for an even longer period than previously contemplated, with a slightly dovish shift in language orientation. The press conference that will follow an hour later will also be crucial.

Analysts at ANZ Bank New Zealand said the RBNZ would join the growing list of central banks around the world, recognizing the risks of slowing global growth:

"But these are not just global factors: the flow of data on the domestic market has been more moderate since the November declaration as well, with market prices predicting an 85% reduction by the end of the year. end of the year, and we believe that the Bank will want to subscribe to this vision reflecting the evolution of the balance of risks.However, given the distance and speed with which the market has evolved, the bar to meet market expectations are high, "badysts said.

In addition, "the fact that the RBNZ became ultra-dovish this week is not a necessary ingredient for our call for the next move in the OCR to be void." Regardless of the wording of tomorrow's statement we believe that the need for further monetary stimulus will become clear at the end of the year, "added badysts.

How could the RBNZ affect the NZD / USD?

Technically, for the event, the prize is set for an escape in one way or another. However, it is not uncommon for such a complex event to occur because it may not cause any reaction. Should the bank stick to what is expected of them today – a dovish bias, one would expect some inconvenience, but is the question already taken into account? The pair has already fallen more than 0.6940 this month due to expectations such that short-term US yields are attracting flows. In fact, a surprise of the bank in the press release or in the press release that highlights the strength of some aspects of the economy would be a good downside game in AUD / NZD and the 1.0400 level would likely attract bearish. However, relative to the dollar, we have already seen a sharp decline in the Fibo retracement to 23.6% in the DXY overnight. The bulls will seek to take advantage of the fragility that reigns there. On the downside, the NZD / USD may aim for a break from the low of mid-January to S2 around 0.6706, before 0.6670, and the threshold of the area below 0.6670. On the upside, 0.6800 falls between SMA 200-D at 0.6753 and Fibo at 38.2% from the recent decline from the highs of late January.

Key notes:

About the interest ruling and the RBNZ's statement

The interest rate decision of the RBNZ is announced by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. If the RBNZ is keen on the inflationary outlook for the economy and raises interest rates, it is positive or bullish for the NZD. The RBNZ rate return contains explanations of its decision on interest rates and comments on the economic conditions that influenced its decision.