Which electric vehicles could generate more than 500,000 sales per year?

March 23, 2019 by Zachary Shahan

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In 2018, 17 models of pbadenger vehicles were sold to more than 500,000 copies worldwide. No electric vehicles were on the list, but we are at a point where some models seem to belong to this elite club.

The Tesla Model 3 has achieved more than 100,000 sales in 2018 and could reach more than 300,000 in 2019. By 2020, it could certainly exceed this threshold of 500,000 units. (Or not, we'll see.) Tesla's Model Y will probably be more popular than Model 3, perhaps a lot more popular, and it's hard to imagine that the crossover habit to make 500,000 sales a year. Apart from these two Tesla consumer models, which electric vehicles could achieve such high annual sales?

Before speculating even more wildly than I was, let's take a look at the 17 models that sold more than 500,000 sales in 2018. These were:

1. Toyota Corolla – 1,187,645
2. Ford F Series – 1 081 272
3. Toyota RAV4 – 837 486
4. Honda Civic – 833 123
5. Volkswagen Tiguan – 791,111
6. Volkswagen Golf – 790 567
7. Honda CR-V – 744,387
8. Volkswagen Polo – 718 983
9. Toyota Camry – 669.130
10. Chevy Silverado – 651,191
11. Ram Ram – 623.477
12. Hyundai Elantra – 621.153
13. Hyundai Tucson – 553,503
14. Toyota Hilux – 549,985
15. Nissan Qashqai – 519,617
16. Honda Accord – 515 144
17. Volkswagen Lavida – 503 940

(Note: There are slightly different versions of this list. If you do not like the one above, here's another one.)

To return to the Tesla Model 3, we recently showed that the car was cost competitive, with the Toyota Corolla (No. 1), Honda Civic (No. 4), Volkswagen Golf (No. 6), Toyota Camry (# 9), Hyundai Elantra (# 12) and Honda Accord (# 16) – despite being a much better car than any of those. It's amazing, and it should show how Model 3 needs more opportunities as more and more people discover the affordable electric supercar as they experiment with Model 3 while calculating the total cost of Possession, while being able to buy Model 3, then as they go from the front and do it.

The Y model, meanwhile, will compete with several other models on this list – the Toyota RAV4, the Volkswagen Tiguan, the Honda CR-V and the Nissan Qashqai. Again, the Y model is more expensive initially, but it will be quite competitive with these vehicles if you consider the total cost of ownership.

Ok, with Tesla on the way (almost), let's think about other models of electric vehicles that could one day break the barrier of 500,000 vehicles (one day by 2023, hopefully).

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Volkswagen I.D.3?

Volkswagen insisted on its ability to produce a model 3 competitor at a lower price. I do not think that the ID3 (or the name of it) will really be a competitor in the key categories, but if it's a decent electric long-range car with a pretty cool design at a price relatively low, it should be in a prime market place. Volkswagen also insisted on CleanTechnica that it creates chains of production of electric vehicles intended to produce as many vehicles that the consumer will buy. Of course, we've heard that kind of thing before, but I think Volkswagen is serious.

If I understand correctly, Id.3 could replace Golf in the long run. As you can see above, the Golf was the 6th best-selling car in the world in 2018, with nearly 800,000 sales.

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Volkswagen I.D. Crozz?

Identity Crozz is in the category of vehicles of the 2020s. It's a brilliant, it's cumbersome and people will want it. The price that Volkswagen is considering with this model is not very clear, but it is a Volkswagen, so it should be affordable.

There is a lot of cars on the list of the 17 above, and not so many crossovers or SUVs, but if it's done well, the I.D. Crozz could replace the Volkswagen Tiguan, the Honda CR-V or the Nissan Qashqai – or anything else.

Of course, Volkswagen must first market the Crozz, as well as other models I.D. models.

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Volkswagen I.D. VIZZION?

If the Crozz is still far away, the VIZZION is too. However, we are considering the potential to break the 500,000 / year mark finallynot next year. Given that Volkswagen has several models on the 2018 list and seems to be serious about embarking on the electric vehicle revolution, I presume that a top-level Volkswagen figure on its ID page model has a hit at 500,000 a year at some point in the 2020s. We'll see.

Identity VIZZION is certainly a pretty car, but it also has a very futuristic and luxurious look. Maybe Volkswagen will just reduce some of these luxury features when the car comes on the market. (It would not be the first time.) Or is this where we are headed?

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Nissan LEAF?

Ah, the Nissan LEAF humble and forgotten. She receives so little love and remains the best-selling electric car in history.

You may be thinking now, "How on earth can the LEAF compete? In all these years, he has not been close to 500,000 per year. I think it's important to take into account the battery experience curve and the evolution of the LEAF range over the years.

The next LEAF is expected to have a better battery (a much better battery) while retaining similar prices to those of previous LEAFs. This price is already quite competitive, but I think that the most important potential is what Nissan could do beyond 2020. Assuming that the batteries continue to improve, Nissan could stop increasing its autonomy and start to lower the costs. In fact, he could do it in 2019 when he was aggressive.

In other words, the LEAF could tackle Id.3 in this price range of about $ 25,000 and could even fall to about $ 20,000 if the LEAF were looking for gold. Once again, I'm not saying that this will happen in 2020 or even in 2021, but think about it: it's entirely possible, especially if Nissan removes certain features from low-end versions. And think about it, a LEAF of around $ 20,000 with tremendous cost savings and a competitive range, which could make the LEAF a powerful model of revolutionary electric vehicle capable of dropping cumulative sales .

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Hyundai Kona EV?

Well, if the LEAF and the currently nonexistent models are on the table, one of the most convincing electric vehicles on the market today must be: it's the Hyundai Kona EV (2019 CleanTechnica Car of the year). The Kona EV has superb features, an attractive design, an ideal body and beautiful colors.

The big question that has been asked about the Kona EV is whether Hyundai is aligning the batteries on the market to meet the demand and be able to produce as many crossovers as its customers want. So far, we have no proof.

At the moment, the price of the Kona EV is significantly higher than that of Kona gas, but as noted above, the battery cost curve tells us that the Kona EV will be the most competitive option one day and that the Kona gas will disappear. Hyundai continues to grow while its competitors lose sales. So, although Kona gas does not exceed 500,000 units at the moment, I could see the electric version exceed 500,000 units a day – maybe.

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Kia Niro EV?

Let's be honest, the Kia Niro EV is not that different from the Hyundai Kona EV. There are some differences in some dimensions and in terms of design, but it is easy to mix these models (this happens often) and they share extremely similar specifications.

Kia does not rank among the top 20 companies like Hyundai and this brand difference will likely continue with EV models. Nevertheless, the Niro EV is another convincing option. If he sees price drops over time and if Kia secures the batteries needed to meet demand, he could be acting from an electric grand slam model that will reduce him a day to sales. world of electric vehicles.

May be.

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Tesla Pickup?

I'm sure it did not escape the fact that the Ford F-Series was the world's second-best-selling vehicle model last year and that a few other vans made more than 500,000 sales in 2018. As such , many consumers – and Elon Musk – are very excited about the Tesla pickup truck, which will be unveiled later this year. Given Tesla's success with Model S, X, 3 and Y models, expectations are high for pickup. It seems that Musk tried to moderate some of these expectations by saying that it was a very unique model that might not be suitable for everyone, but he also claimed that it was the product Tesla who fascinated him the most. Stay tuned.

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Tesla Model 2?

Another Tesla model for which we can not give a real picture is Model 2. Oh yes, that's just the name I give it, Tesla did not use that term to my knowledge. I do not know if the design of this vehicle really worked, but after taking a few steps, Elon recently said that Tesla could produce a smaller and cheaper model than Model 3. I guess it's in the $ 25,000 to $ 30,000 and the model will be called Model 2. Assuming that happens, we will surely have to wait at least a few years. However, if that happens, I do not see how a Tesla model under $ 30,000 could do not sell more than 500,000 units a year.

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Ford F Series Electric?

As I mentioned, the Ford F Series was the second car in the world last year in terms of sales. If you think that the industry will gradually switch to 100% electric vehicles – and me too – you can expect that electric versions of some of these models will still be on this list in 10 years. Of course, some models (and some companies) will die, but others will actually electrify, and Ford said it was working on an electric version of the F-series. I'm waiting for Ford to make a decent work in this area and possibly sell more than 500,000 F-series electric trucks in one year. Remember, even if it goes bankrupt before, it is the only manufacturer of Big 3 that was not saved by the US government. He is also entitled to a bailout, right?

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Chevy Silverado Electric?

GM is seriously working on electric powertrains. The Bolt EV was marketed before any other car manufacturer has a long-range electric vehicle in the price range of this car. He also kept the word of this model silent for a long time. I guess it works on an electric van and wants to be the first to market again. A Silverado Electric maybe? Probably not, since GM likes to give new names to its electric vehicles, but let's just call it Silverado Electric at the moment. As battery technology and manufacturing continue to improve (ie costs are constantly decreasing), the truck should really be competitive this time around. Even if that shouldthat does not mean will – at least not for a few years – but hopefully a little bit.

Any other ideas?

All models that you think should do not to be on this list of possibilities?

Want to get out on a long, slender leg and predict when some models will reach more than 500,000 sales a year?

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Keywords: Hyundai, Hyundai Kona, Hyundai Kona EV, Kia Niro, Nissan Kia Niro, Nissan Leaf, Volkswagen ID, Volkswagen ID, Volkswagen ID Crozz