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Winning on the PGA TOUR is no small feat.
Over the past five seasons, 1,181 different players have played it in at least one tournament. Only 103 of them – less than 9% – achieve a victory during this period.
Since the end of the pandemic last May at the Charles Schwab Challenge, only three players have won their first victory: Richy Werenski (Barracuda Championship), Jason Kokrak (CJ CUP @ SHADOW CREEK) and Carlos Ortiz (Vivint Houston Open). In the past five seasons, 24% of PGA TOUR victories have gone to first-time champions. The other three quarters of the time, the winning player has already been to the top of the mountain at least once in his career.
Which young star will burst into our golfing consciousness this season? Will a veteran take the next step in his career by securing this elusive victory? Using the club’s 15th Performance Index and several other player and course trends, we digged into the numbers to find out who was most likely to score their first PGA TOUR victory. Here are some of the most interesting projections revealed by our 15,000 simulations.
Tommy Fleetwood
Odds of winning on the PGA TOUR this season: 24.0%
Our predictive model is based on the assumption that Fleetwood will split his time between the PGA TOUR and the European Tour for the remainder of 2021, as he has done in the past. This plays a big role in his probability of winning this season. The 15th Club projects that Fleetwood’s base chance of winning a PGA TOUR event is higher than some of the other names higher on this list.
Five-time European Tour winner Fleetwood looks like a slam dunk to win at least once over the next two seasons of the PGA TOUR. He already has four finalists on the TOUR, including two in major championships. Two seasons ago, he was in the top 15 of the TOUR in Strokes Won: Off-The-Tee, Strokes Won: Tee-to-Green and Strokes Won: Total.
Matthew fitzpatrick
Odds of winning on the PGA TOUR this season: 28.4%
Fitzpatrick, the 2013 American Amateur Champion, fits the Fleetwood mold from a planning standpoint. The 26-year-old Englishman has won six European Tour victories, including last year’s event, the DP World Tour Championship.
Fitzpatrick was among the best on the greens on the PGA TOUR last season, placing second in Won Strokes: Putting. He was also in the top 10 in putting from 4 to 8 feet, putting outside 25 feet and in average distance putts made per round. It seems like a matter of time before he gets hot enough to clinch his first PGA TOUR victory.
Sam burns
Odds of winning on the PGA TOUR this season: 36.8%
Recipient of the Jack Nicklaus Award as the Best Player in College Golf in 2017, Burns has amassed an impressive collection of statistics during the fall portion of the 2020-2021 PGA TOUR season. Burns is third in TOUR for strokes won: Off-The-Tee, fifth for driving distance and fifth for Greens in regulation. He currently leads the TOUR in total drive and is up over 100 spots from last season in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.
Burns may not have to wait long for that first win. How does it sound this week? On the American Express last year, he finished tied for sixth, capping his week with a 63 at the Stadium Course (he only needed 20 putts in the final round, the least of all players on field). Burns has averaged 5.75 per-breakers per round in his career eight rounds at the event.
Abraham Ancer
Odds of winning on the PGA TOUR this season: 37.3%
In the last four seasons of the PGA TOUR, Abraham Ancer has finished 14 in the top 10 – the third greatest player without a win during that time. His average ranking is climbing a promising scale: from 70th in 2017-18, to 45th in 2018-19, to 16th last season. Prefer the strokes won: Total? It’s the same trend – 79th, 53rd, 20th.
Ancer has three finalists on the TOUR, including a year ago at this week’s event. Ancer loved the Stadium Course in 2020 – at 15 under par he had the best score of the week in both laps at this track. He also led the field for the week in the regulation greens. Ancer’s time to secure the number one victory may be on the immediate horizon.
Will zalatoris
Odds of winning on the PGA TOUR this season: 37.3%
Perhaps no male soccer player, regardless of tour, has played golf more regularly in 2020 than Will Zalatoris. Between the PGA TOUR and the Korn Ferry Tour, Zalatoris finished 13 in the top 10. It was the top 10 of events sanctioned by the Official World Golf Ranking last year, two ahead of Dustin Johnson (11), Bryson DeChambeau, Justin Thomas and Mikael Lindberg (a player who competes in the Nordic Golf League, a tour professional based in Scandinavia).
Zalatoris finished tied for sixth at the US Open, then followed up with two more top 10 finishes before the fall ended. Former ACC Player of the Year is currently ranked in the top 10 of the TOUR in Strokes Won: Off Tee, Strokes Won: Approach, Strokes Won: Tee-to-Green, Driving Distance and Average Scores , to name just a few. Zalatoris should soon be all over the radar of golf fans – if it isn’t already.
Scottie Scheffler
Odds of winning on the PGA TOUR this season: 37.5%
Reigning Rookie of the Year PGA TOUR, Scheffler currently occupies a unique place in history: he is the only player to have an under 60 round on the TOUR, but no wins. I imagine he would like to change that distinction, and quickly.
Analyzes from the 15th Club indicate that it probably will, and soon. Scheffler’s current average winning probability – the odds that he’ll win any average event he starts on the PGA TOUR – is over 4%. It might not sound like a lot, but it leads to an almost 38% chance that he will win the No.1 win before this year’s TOUR Championship.
Scheffler was an elite ball forward on the TOUR last season, ranking 10th in both strokes won: off the tee and strokes won: tee-to-green. Scheffler placed 161st putting 10 feet indoors, so a moderate improvement on shorter putts could pay the former American junior amateur champion big dividends.
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