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In recent weeks, the industry's news cycle has looked very positive, the stakeholder sentiment is more cheerful than sardonic and the value of Bitcoin (BTC) has begun to take hold of it. 39; scale. All this, combined with the fact that the trading activity has apparently exploded, left a multitude of commentators on their guard as they eagerly anticipated a notable gathering of cryptographic badets.
However, some have maintained a bearish tone, relentlessly calling the BTC less than $ 3,000. These short-term bears, which have yet to fall back into hibernation, cite the historical cycles of the Bitcoin market to confirm their forecasts. But, could their heart-rending cries for lower lows really materialize?
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Bitcoin bears might not be made yet
Crypto-currencies may be nascent, but in their decade their respective markets have evolved into underlying models. Josh Rager, a leading badyst, recently spoke about one of these trends, quoting Twitter as explaining why it is likely that BTC could revive its low of $ 3,150 and collapse further.
Rager explains that in the 2014-2016 cycle, the BTC fell to a low level, where everyone thought that the market had reached its low point, before establishing a rebound, a higher then a higher high – a series of moves that could signal a bullish breakout or overthrow. However, bitcoin has dropped from $ 380 to $ 160 in a few months.
$ BTC: Comparison of funds from 2019 to 2015
Would be interesting if Bitcoin pushes for a "higher" in the coming weeks
Only for that he repeats 2015 with a slow lateral decline over the next few weeks before the final surrender to fulfill the purchase orders
Just a potential scenario pic.twitter.com/HwlfMglMn8
– Josh Rager ? (@Josh_Rager) March 22, 2019
While the crypto market has recently experienced the same phenomenon, with the exception of the highest peak, Rager has pointed out that it would be interesting to see Bitcoin "renew 2015 with a slow regression" before a "Final capitulation". And with that, he theoretically described that BTC reached $ 4,800 before a vicious and quick draw at $ 1,800 in mid-May, which would be followed by a possible recovery.
It is interesting to note that Rager is not the only badyst to have speculated that $ 1,800 is in the BTC cards. Through the use of historical badyzes and key technical levels, such as the 200-week moving average (200 MA), 300 and 400 MA, Murad Mahmudov explained that Bitcoin's "constant support" would be at a MA300 level. approximately $ 2,400. However, the Adaptive Capital partner has made it clear that Bitcoin could "go down" to $ 1,350, for $ 1,700, "because of past trends and the excessive tension of the 2017 bubble."
A more bullish image
While Rager and Mahmudov seem to be wary of what will happen in this market, others are convinced that the bottom is well established. Ryan Selkis, general manager of the cryptocurrency badyst Messari, said he would be "extremely surprised" if Bitcoin had not found a floor in this bear market.
I would be extremely surprised if the background was not there for that $ BTC bear market.
If you are on the sidelines, what do you expect if it is now?
If you are a long-time bull, the EV at 5 is 25-50x and you will wait until the entry is 20% more attractive?
– Ryan Selkis (@twobitidiot) March 21, 2019
Selkis, who firmly believes that BTC is a better way of storing digital value, explains that for long-term speculators, waiting for the last capitulation event is absurd because the expected value of cryptographic badets is "25 to 50 times "Current prices.
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Of course, this may seem crazy at first glance, especially given the 80% reduction that Bitcoin has experienced, but Selkis is far from alone in supporting such a dynamic investment thesis.
Magic Poop Cannon, an industry commentator that Tom Lee has already praised, said on TradingView that BTC remains in a "very sharp cyclical uptrend", despite the slowdown seen last year. He argued that if Bitcoin is between $ 3,000 and $ 5,000 for most of 2019, lower lows are almost unlikely, as BTC is unlikely to break a line it has never broken.
Regarding feelings, the outlook for crypto also looks promising. The crypto dog wrote the following:
A close friend (a deep insider in the cryptocurrency universe) said this word for word on chat right now:
"Literally, everyone is optimistic Like everyone else Not as usual," haha, everyone is optimistic ".
Everyone is bullish. "
I do not even joke.
– The crypto dog (@TheCryptoDog) March 16, 2019
Even if digital badets are still to fall, some are convinced that it is not necessary to reach exactly the bottom, especially given the considerable potential of Bitcoin.
Alec "Rhythm Trader" Ziupsnys says that it is unwise to actively seek downs. In a tweet, Ziupsnys wrote that trying to find the bottom of the cryptography markets is tantamount to "trying to earn a dime in front of a steamroller", alluding to his thinking process that there is a lot of risk for a potential return. Rager himself once published a similar message, stating that in three to five years, it does not matter if the cost in Bitcoin is $ 1,800 or $ 3,000, because this market will probably have exceeded current expectations.
Featured image of Shutterstock
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