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Portland Timbers striker, Brian Fernandez, celebrates after scoring in Saturday's 3-1 win over Philadelhia Union. Despite being in 10th place in the MLS Western Conference, the Timbers are virtually out of the MLS playoffs, if history is an indication, after starting the season with a 12-year run. games on the road.
ASSOCIATED PRESS
The Portland Timbers beat Saturday's & nbsp; Philadelphia Union 3-1 to close a record-breaking 12-game road trip to Major League Soccer and open the season with 14 points. As a result, the team of coach Giovanni Savarese has a 74% chance to participate in the playoffs of the MLS, according to statistical badysts FiveThirtyEight.
The story suggests that the real probability is closer to 100%.
In a league where almost nothing is a sure thing, doing the series after a long road trip to start the season – usually to allow the completion of a stadium project – is as tight as possible. And we are at the point of becoming a competitive equity issue.
Since MLS began its accelerated expansion, from 12 teams in 2006 to 24 currently (with a goal of 30 for a not too distant future), 11 & nbsp; clubs started the season by playing at least their first five away matches or at least eight of their top ten.
Only the Philadelphia Union 2010 – which was & nbsp; during its expansion season – failed to qualify for the playoffs.
And despite mounting evidence that such a move is playing for the team, it has become more common over the past two seasons.
Timbers & nbsp; are ready to enjoy it for a second consecutive season. They started 2018 with five games away while waiting for the first stage of renovating Providence Park, before leaving even longer this season to allow the completion of the second phase.
With Portland, D.C. United and LAFC started 2018 with long road trips and eventually qualified for the playoffs. Minnesota United and the Montreal Impact join Portland this season, and from this trio, FiveThirtyEight gives Minnesota the lowest probability in the playoffs, to 61%.
| Team | Start of the calendar | Qualification for series / Probability for ongoing series * |
|---|---|---|
| 2010 Philadelphia Union | 8 of the top 10 on the outside | Missed playoffs (7th East) |
| 2011 Sporting Kansas City | First 10 on the outside | Made Playoffs (1st East) |
| Houston Dynamo 2012 | First 7 | Made Playoffs (5th East) |
| 2015 Toronto FC | First 7 | Made Playoffs (6th East) |
| 2016 FC Toronto | First 8 | Made Playoffs (3rd East) |
| 2018 D.C. United | 12 of the first 14 | Made Playoffs (4th East) |
| LAFC 2018 | First 6 on the outside | Made Playoffs (3rd West) |
| 2018 Portland Timbers | First 5 away | Made Playoffs (5th West) |
| 2019 Minnesota United | First 5 & nbsp; far | 61% & nbsp; (5th West) |
| Montreal Impact 2019 | First 6 on the outside | 80% & nbsp; (4th & nbsp; East) |
| 2019 Portland Timbers | First 12 from | 74 percent & nbsp; (10th west) |
* Probabilities according to FiveThirtyEight football club forecasts
Can such a trend be explained by some sort of hidden variable? Perhaps. & Nbsp; In particular, teams moving into new facilities may have more motivated owners to invest financially in improving the product in the field.
More likely, however, long, early trips create conditions that mitigate some of the problems in the MLS calendar at 34 games.
Regarding the composition of the team, teams with a home opening game later often have a late schedule. This means that all players registered in the middle of the season will have more games to make an impact.
For example, Portland forward Brian Fernandez could play for up to 24 games after signing at the end of the first round of the league and making his debut on May 15. If Fernandez had signed with Montreal or Columbus, for example, his cap would have been 21 matches. .
Similarly, there were 20 games remaining at D.C when Wayne Rooney made his debut last season while the secondary transfer window opened. On the same day, potential champions of the MLS Cup, Atlanta United, had more than 14 games to play.
The parties in hand can also help a coach to manage the rotation of his team. A coach facing & nbsp; a period of five matches and 15 days in April or May might be tempted to try to push his regulars as many minutes as possible. If the same stretch occurs in September, it is easier to look at the schedule and rank, determine the number of points a team really needs and plan accordingly.
And in a league where teams have to move commercially for most matches, & nbsp; Travel trips & nbsp; wear as much as the sharpness of the schedules. It's not easier to advertise in March, April or May, but players do it at least with less cumulated wear on their bodies.
Nothing is a guarantee in a league that has seen six champions in six seasons. And blame should not be blamed on the Timbers or any other club that wants to build or improve facilities. On the contrary, the new construction is the cornerstone of the long-term viability of the MLS, a fact that probably makes the MLS home office apt to host the receptive clubs that engage it.
However, the trend of early season road trips leading to the end-of-season playoffs is expected to continue in 2019. And as the league develops, it may be necessary to reconsider the room for maneuver available to them. teams to open or renovate stadiums.
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Portland Timbers striker, Brian Fernandez, celebrates after scoring in Saturday's 3-1 win over Philadelhia Union. Despite being in 10th place in the MLS Western Conference, the Timbers are virtually out of the MLS playoffs, if history is an indication, after starting the season with a 12-year run. games on the road.
ASSOCIATED PRESS
The Portland Timbers beat the Philadelphia Union 3-1 on Saturday to conclude a record-breaking 12-game road trip to Major League Soccer and open the season with 14 points. As a result, FiveThirtyEight statistical badysts have a 74% chance of qualifying for the MLS playoffs.
The story suggests that the real probability is closer to 100%.
In a league where almost nothing is a sure thing, doing the series after a long road trip to start the season – usually to allow the completion of a stadium project – is as tight as possible. And we are at the point of becoming a competitive equity issue.
Since MLS began its accelerated expansion from 12 teams in 2006 to 24 currently (with a target of 30 for a not-too-distant future), 11 clubs started the season by playing at least their first five games in the tournament. Outside, or at least eight of their top 10.
Only the Philadelphia Union 2010 – which was in its season of expansion – failed to qualify for the playoffs.
And despite mounting evidence that such a move is playing for the team, it has become more common over the past two seasons.
The Timbers are online to benefit from a second consecutive season. They started 2018 with five games away while waiting for the first stage of renovating Providence Park, before leaving even longer this season to allow the completion of the second phase.
With Portland, D.C. United and LAFC started 2018 with long road trips and eventually qualified for the playoffs. Minnesota United and the Montreal Impact join Portland this season, and from this trio, FiveThirtyEight gives Minnesota the lowest probability in the playoffs, to 61%.
| Team | Start of the calendar | Qualification for series / Probability for ongoing series * |
|---|---|---|
| 2010 Philadelphia Union | 8 of the top 10 on the outside | Missed playoffs (7th East) |
| 2011 Sporting Kansas City | First 10 on the outside | Made Playoffs (1st East) |
| Houston Dynamo 2012 | First 7 | Made Playoffs (5th East) |
| 2015 Toronto FC | First 7 | Made Playoffs (6th East) |
| 2016 FC Toronto | First 8 | Made Playoffs (3rd East) |
| 2018 D.C. United | 12 of the first 14 | Made Playoffs (4th East) |
| LAFC 2018 | First 6 on the outside | Made Playoffs (3rd West) |
| 2018 Portland Timbers | First 5 away | Made Playoffs (5th West) |
| 2019 Minnesota United | First 5 away | 61 percent (5th West) |
| Montreal Impact 2019 | First 6 on the outside | 80 percent (4th East) |
| 2019 Portland Timbers | First 12 from | 74 percent (10th west) |
* Probabilities according to FiveThirtyEight football club forecasts
Can such a trend be explained by some sort of hidden variable? May be. In particular, teams moving into new facilities may have more motivated owners to invest financially in product improvement in the field.
More likely, however, long, early trips create conditions that mitigate some of the problems in the MLS calendar at 34 games.
Regarding the composition of the team, teams with a home opening game later often have a late schedule. This means that all players registered in the middle of the season will have more games to make an impact.
For example, Portland striker Brian Fernandez could play up to 24 games after signing at the close of the league's first round and debuting on May 15th. If Fernandez had signed with Montreal or Columbus, for example, his cap would have been 21 matches. .
Similarly, there were 20 games remaining at D.C when Wayne Rooney made his debut last season while the secondary transfer window opened. On the same day, potential champions of the MLS Cup, Atlanta United, had more than 14 games to play.
The parties in hand can also help a coach to manage the rotation of his team. A coach facing a five-day, fifteen-day period in April or May might be tempted to try to push his regulars as many minutes as possible. If the same stretch occurs in September, it is easier to look at the schedule and rank, determine the number of points a team really needs and plan accordingly.
And in a league where teams are required to participate commercially in most matches, player movement is as painful as program congestion. It's not easier to advertise in March, April or May, but players do it at least with less cumulated wear on their bodies.
Nothing is a guarantee in a league that has seen six champions in six seasons. And blame should not be blamed on the Timbers or any other club that wants to build or improve facilities. On the contrary, new construction is the cornerstone of the long-term viability of MLS, a fact that probably makes the MLS window open to accommodating clubs that undertake it.
However, the trend of early season road trips leading to the end-of-season playoffs is expected to continue in 2019. And as the league develops, it may be necessary to reconsider the room for maneuver available to them. teams to open or renovate stadiums.
