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The two presidents chair very different national economic models
A trade agreement between the United States and China – if that happens – will probably not have the effect of ending the rivalry between the two economic giants.
Both sides have been waging a trade war over the past year, with adverse consequences for the global economy.
But many say their dispute goes far beyond trade – it's a power struggle between two very different worldviews.
Agreement or not, this rivalry should only widen and become more difficult to solve.
"We have entered a new standard in which US-Chinese geopolitical competition has intensified and become more explicit," said Michael Hirson, Asia director of the Eurasia Group consulting group.
"The trade agreement will temper a phase of the US-Chinese power struggle, but only temporarily and with limited effect."
According to badysts, the rivalry between the United States and China is likely to manifest itself in the crucial sector of technology, as both sides try to badert themselves as a world leader in technology.
Technology transfer issues have been at the heart of trade negotiations between the two largest economies in the world in recent months.
"All countries now correctly recognize that their prosperity, wealth, economic security and military security will be tied to the maintenance of a technological advantage," said Stephen Olson, Research Fellow at the Hinrich Foundation, an advisory body. on world trade.
The technological battle
Many say that the technological battle between the United States and China is already underway – and that the Chinese technology giant Huawei is at the center of it.
Huawei has recently been the subject of intense international scrutiny, with the United States and other countries having expressed safety concerns about its products.
The United States has banned federal agencies from using Huawei products and encouraged their allies to avoid them.
Both Australia and New Zealand have blocked the use of Huawei equipment in the next generation 5G mobile networks.
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The US government has accused Huawei of being a risk of spying, which he firmly denies
But Huawei said it is independent of the Chinese government. Its founder, Ren Zhengfei, told the BBC in February that his company would never conduct espionage.
The dispute reached its climax with the arrest of the founder's daughter in December and, more recently, the lawsuit brought by Huawei to the US government.
Huawei also launched a public relations offensive by publishing a full-page ad in the Wall Street Journal, urging Americans to "not believe everything you hear".
"The term" cold war "is used excessively in the context of the general tensions between the United States and China, but describes more and more precisely the competition in the field of technology," said Mr. Hirson.
The quarrel around Huawei is "symptomatic of this intensified geopolitical competition," he adds.
"This rivalry is much more difficult to solve than the problems of pure trade."
How did we come here?
US concerns about China have increased in recent years, as has the influence of China around the world.
Its huge "Belt and Road" initiative, the "Made in China 2025" plans and the growing importance of companies such as Huawei and Alibaba have all contributed to these fears.
US Vice President Mike Pence summed up the mood in a speech in October, saying China had chosen "economic aggression" rather than "a stronger partnership" by opening up its economy.
China's hopes of adopting a more Western model have given way to recognition that its economy has prospered alongside a system run by the state, not in spite of it.
"China has become much more explicit in its ambitions over the last few years," said Andrew Gilholm, director of badysis for China at Control Risks.
"Therefore, no one imagines that China will follow a western liberal democratic model, or converge towards a market economy as the people hoped for a few years ago."
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Chinese exports have exploded in the last two decades
Some badysts believe that a stalemate between the two parties was inevitable.
Their different systems have always made people clumsy in the global economy, while clashes between existing and emerging powers are commonplace in history.
"What we are dealing with here are the frictions between the traditional market economy, the free trade economy, the principles of the Washington Consensus and, for the first time, a huge technologically sophisticated and managed economy. centrally, playing the game according to another set of rules., "says Olson.
What is happening now?
As the race for technology accelerates, badysts expect the US to continue using non-tariff measures to fight China.
Restrictions on Chinese investment in the United States, the limited capacity of US companies to export technology to China and the increased pressure on Chinese companies are all tools that could be used, have- they declared.
"Non-tariff measures do not attract market attention to tariffs, partly because their impact is harder to quantify, but they can have a far-reaching impact," Hirson said. .
International trade
More from the BBC series taking an international perspective on trade:
A new US law pbaded last year could facilitate this refoulement.
It has strengthened the government's power to review – and possibly block – commercial transactions involving foreign companies by expanding the type of transactions that can be reviewed by the US Committee on Foreign Investment (CFIUS).
The committee reviews foreign investments to see if they pose a risk to national security.
Last year, even before the new law was pbaded, a highly publicized transaction involving the sale of US money transfer company MoneyGram to Alibaba's digital payment division, Ant Financial, it's collapsed when companies have not obtained the required CFIUS approval.
New American-Chinese standard?
The development of Sino-US relations from here will depend in part on the type of trade agreement reached.
Penetrated by equal tariffs, both parties have been willing to speak since the agreement reached on a truce in December.
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President Trump has been harshly treated against China on the trade issue
But badysts say relations between the two giants could be different, regardless of any trade deal.
They could have "a fully cooperative, flourishing and mutually beneficial relationship" in some areas but put obstacles in others in what Mr. Olson described as "selective decoupling".
An increasing number of areas could be fenced, especially those related to technology, he says.
"Will Huawei ever be able to participate meaningfully in the construction of the 5G network in the US? This seems unlikely."
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