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ISLAMABAD, Pakistan – For a nation often in the news for all the wrong reasons – suicide bombings, horrific school killings – Pakistan has reached a turning point that could change its dysfunctional trajectory.
Imran Khan, the star of cricket and a list celebrity whose political party won last week's elections, could use his notoriety and charisma to restore Pakistan's troubled relationship with him. West
. Khan could also bring Pakistan closer to the expanding Chinese sphere, a neighbor that he touted as a role model.
Either Mr. Khan could follow the same path as many Pakistani leaders before him, supporting Islamic laws showing sympathy for militant groups, policies that have kept Pakistan isolated for years.
Yet Mr. Khan brings something new: more power and mysticism than any recent Pakistani leader and perhaps a better chance to change the narrative of the country. Relatively few Pakistani leaders have won the West, "said Michael Kugelman, deputy director of the South Asia Program at Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington. " But Khan is familiar with the functioning in the international world.He already has a strong name recognition.It does not need to be introduced."
Oxford Educated and once married to a wealthy British woman, Mr. Khan is clearly at ease in the highest circles of Western power brokers. He was close to Princess Diana. (Shortly before his death, Mr. Khan said, he was trying to help her find a new husband.)
However, the old Mr. Khan is not necessarily the new Mr. Khan. In recent years, he has undergone a complex metamorphosis, distancing himself from his days as a star athlete and ladies' man. he now expresses his sympathy for the Taliban and Pakistan's harsh blasphemy laws, which include the death penalty, positions that play well on the country. "19659002" He accuses the extremists dangerously, and all who know him know it. , a political scientist at Georgetown University
The dust has hardly changed since the elections, which have been tainted with allegations of rigging and abundant evidence that the Pakistani army has interfered to help Mr. Khan win. Khan's party overthrew the others, but as of Sunday, he did not get a majority in Parliament.
To become prime minister, he must convince independent candidates and small parties to form a coalition. Most badysts think that it will succeed, even if it is not a sure thing.
In many ways, Pakistan is a pivotal nation. It is the sixth most populous country in the world, with 200 million people. It is also endowed with nuclear weapons and strategically located next to India, China, Iran and Afghanistan.
For decades, kamikazes, extremist groups and a nefarious spy agency helped create the Taliban and actively supported Al Qaeda, while ostensibly serving as an ally in the United States.
But many parts of the country are safer today than they were a few years ago. New shopping centers, new schools and new Dunkin & Donuts outlets are growing. And now, Pakistan is about to have a new global seller.
It is generally expected that Mr. Khan, 65, becomes Prime Minister, he will be fascinated by him when he will go around the world. Most likely, he will visit foreign capital and commercial titans, seek help to solve Pakistan's deep debt crisis and attract investors.
In an address to the nation last week, Mr. Khan mentioned China no less than seven times, congratulating him for taking millions out of poverty and fighting corruption. "God willing," he said, "we will learn that from China."
In another signal, his party posted a Twitter message in Chinese extolling China's achievements and promising improved links. ] Pakistan is heading towards a possible default and insolvency, and China has already lent it billions of dollars for new roads and railways, at discounted rates. Two days after Khan's speech, Pakistani newspapers reported that China would lend the government another $ 2 billion to "breathe."
But baduming that Mr. Khan finally gets the post of prime minister, he will enter Sanctum inside with the smell of scandal.
Clearly, his electoral victory was far from right. Human rights groups, academics, Western diplomats and political badysts said the Pakistani army and security services, often referred to as "the establishment," systematically targeted M's political rivals. Khan in the months leading up to the elections. But establishment leaders can now kick themselves because they are doing a job too well.
They seem to like Mr. Khan, for the moment, partly because his strength with the United States and the tolerance of Islamist extremists reflect how many Pakistanis. the best officers feel. The establishment feels burned by Mr. Trump, who has reduced military aid to Pakistan and has made fun of the wider change that the United States is making to embrace the world. India, the enemy of Pakistan, as a brake on China.
the main purpose of the establishment. The Pakistani army has ruled directly for much of its history and has been ingested for the rest. What the military bosses really wanted this time, according to badysts, was a weak civilian government, with the veneer of a democracy. They were so severe in their tactics that they neither ended nor
In the months leading up to the elections, the security services intimidated, blackened, arrested and prosecuted party leaders PML-N policy, many observers. said, culminating in the imprisonment of the party leader, Nawaz Sharif, three-time prime minister, less than two weeks before the vote.
On polling day, Mr. Khan's rivals say, the soldiers guarding the polling stations access to the competition being so completely eviscerated and Mr. Khan really popular, especially among the youth, he was now going to rush into the office with a strong national suite. According to the latest updated results released this weekend, his party has won nearly four million more votes than its nearest competitor, the PML-N. Khan's party has a huge lead in the National Assembly with over 100 seats, compared to PML-N around 64;
All of this means that Mr. Khan, whose success seems in part a creation of the army, might not be so easy to control.
"Khan might be more inclined to shoot down heads," said Marvin Weinbaum, a researcher at the Middle East Institute and former intelligence badyst of the State Department. "The difference with Imran is going to be because he's a populist, he feels that he can go farther than Nawaz. "
Conflict with the institution, Mr. Weinbaum said, is" almost inevitable. "[19659002] Khan's erratic personality is an additional complication, and he is known to lead a team, making impulsive decisions, contradicting himself and then using his enormous storehouse of self-esteem and charisma to break free.
He said that he wanted to reform the madrasa system in which countless young Pakistani boys were brainwashed in Koranic schools to fight for extremist groups. time, Mr. Khan supported the laws from Pakistan on blasphemy and badociated with extremist religious groups who revolted a few years ago in Islamabad, the capital.
His vast villa on the outskirts of Islamabad, where he spends much of his time. time symbolizes its guarded nature. The huge enclosure, which occupies a steep hill, is hidden behind high walls. At night, you can see thousands of lights of Islamabad twinkle far away, far below. Although it is still officially one of hundreds of MPs, dozens of police have blocked the roads leading to his house this weekend and have rallied to his doors as s & # 39; he was already prime minister. Khan's idiosyncrasies may not even have much importance. Analysts say that there are only two issues that the West really cares about in Pakistan: militant groups and nuclear weapons. Mr. Khan will not have much to say either. The Army and Intelligence Services Treat Both
The biggest problem that Mr. Khan will control is the economy. It's there that he could shine as a leader or be quickly integrated. Pakistan is facing a balance of payments crisis, its currency has quickly devalued, its debt is skyrocketing
. Economists say the steps the next Prime Minister must take are obvious but painful. The national budget (including that of the army) must be reduced, Pakistanis must pay more for energy, old state-owned enterprises must be privatized and taxes – much more taxes – must to be collected.
According to the Pakistani government, last year less than one million of the 200 million Pakistanis paid taxes.
Khan remains the most focused on obtaining the numbers he needs in the Pakistani Parliament to form a coalition government with him as prime minister. Up to now, some smaller parties have indicated that they will join, but it still has some way to go
. The Pakistan People's Party, in third position, is wondering whether it will join Mr. Khan or he will oppose him. . If this materialized, it could easily push Mr. Khan's coalition to a majority.
Most Pakistanis, even those who did not vote for Mr. Khan, believe that he will be the next prime minister. "Everyone thinks Pakistan is a terrorist world," said a 16-year-old girl, Mahnoor, who was sitting in the food court of a new restaurant. Mall this week, eat McDonald's chips. "He is not."
Naveed Majeed, a rice exporter, said foreigners would listen to Mr. Khan because he brings something of an aura.
"And I want him to tell the world that we are not all terrorists." Mr. Majeed said.
This is clearly a sensitive subject many Pakistanis are in pain for a new history for their country
Khan would not be the first Pakistani prime minister with a Westernized story Benazir Bhutto, killed in a suicide bombing in 2007, was elegant, handsome and a little fascinated She also spent years in England (and the United States), but she failed to radically change the way most foreigners saw her homeland.
Part of the reason, explains Anatol Lieven, senior researcher at the New America Foundation, was that Westerners first saw Mrs. Bhutto through a narrow lens, a liberal, upper clbad woman educated in Britain.
"They all missed about his family, from the nature of politics to Pak istan, "he said." These people are part of the systems. "
Salman Masood contributed to Islamabad. Meher Ahmad and Daniyal Hbadan contributed to reports from Lahore, Pakistan.
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