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Let's just leave the claims on both sides and apply some logic.
Iran has long used the Strait of Hormuz and the surrounding shipping lanes – the site of Thursday's attack – to gain global leverage. In 2008, Iranian officials pledged to impose controls on ships in the Strait if they were attacked. In late 2011, Iran again threatened to block the strait in retaliation for US and European sanctions on its oil revenues.
Now, with the US decision to withdraw from the JCPOA, the multinational nuclear deal signed by Iran in 2015, Tehran is once again facing a tougher sanctions, a crumbling economy and a weakening of the hold of his ruling theocracy.
The Strait of Hormuz is Iran's favorite place to get what it wants and, for the moment, it wants to evade the yoke of crippling international sanctions.
In his conciliation process, Abe sent a letter to Trump – but Ali Khamenei rejected the opening, describing Trump as a person not "deserving to exchange messages". By the time Abe and Khamenei met, tankers were attacked in the Gulf of Oman.
Zarif, always the wise diplomat, wanted his tweet to ease global fears that Trump, or one of his regional allies, would spoil himself for a battle. After all, the world shuddered when Trump ordered the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier and his battle group in the Persian Gulf last month.
In addition to international fears, Saudi Arabia has its own interests vis-à-vis Iran, blaming it for supporting Houthi rebels in Yemen who periodically conduct ballistic missiles manufactured by Iran against Saudi civilian airports. This week, a terminal at Abha International Airport was hit, injuring 26 people.
Regional diplomats are worried and with good reason.
The powerful Crown Prince of the desert kingdom, Mohammed Bin Salman, instils fear among his Western partners, who consider him a young, impulsive and responsible for the brutal murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
A month ago, following previous attacks on international shipping in the region, the questions on everyone's lips were: could a Trump-MBS alliance trigger a regional war fueled by the desire for popularity of Trump and MBS's desire to destroy the expansionist theocrats?
That was a reasonable concern: four merchant vessels were attacked at anchor while they were waiting to refuel oil off Fujairah's strategic Emirati port. Some have suspected a ploy of schemes to give Iran a bad image and start the war that everyone feared.
In any war with Iran, the thin coastal cities of the UAE with their gleaming arrows and their handsome palaces would be on the front line. In short, they would have more to lose than their mbadive neighbor, Saudi Arabia.
But in the end, neither Riyadh, nor its allies, nor the United States had the appetite to strike Iran.
That adds at least a little clarity – and there is more.
The attack of these four ships a month ago did not occur in isolation. A few days later, a Saudi strategic pipeline was targeted. The responsibility was claimed by the Houthi militia backed by Iran hundreds of kilometers away in Yemen.
Significantly, the port of Fujairah and the Saudi pipeline are bypbades towards the Strait of Hormuz.
Just like Iran's previous threats on the control of the Strait of Ormuz, the message was this: we can target all oil routes out of the region.
Thursday's attack caused the volume of this message to escalate, further increasing tension – multiple explosions aboard moving ships, fires being reported, injured crew members, everyone having been forced to evacuate.
As in the previous attack in Fujairah, Thursday's incident was sophisticated and required a capability and intent.
Iran owns both types of farms: it has long used the world's sea lanes for oil transportation and a military device, the Revolutionary Guard, which has the skills and hardware needed to carry out such attacks.
The problem for the United States when they accuse Iran of committing such attacks is that the Trump government is viewed with some degree of suspicion even by its allies. And it is even more true for Saudi Arabia.
This should not make the most logical explanation less logical – even if it means examining Zarif's tweet through the prism of Iran's internal affairs.
Zarif is not popular with hardliners, he recently left his post before being reintegrated into his country, the country is divided and it is not illogical that the IRGC acted without the blessing of Tehran . Deeply suspicious would hardly cover this state of affairs.
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