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The New York Giants will begin the 2019 regular season by Dallas Cowboys in Week 1.
The Giants are hoping to get started on the road by getting a rival on the road, but that is – it's always going to be easier than done. Dallas has a great offense, a dangerous offensive weapon, and a strong running game.
And for the second time in two years we have the preseason with questions about how a reworked Giants' defense will perform in the regular season. Gone are Olivier Vernon, Collins Landon, Damon Harrison, and Eli Apple. In their place are Markus Golden, Jabrill Peppers, Antoine Bethea, Dexter Lawrence, and DeAndre Baker.
How will the Giant's revamped defense stand up to the Dallas offense?
By the numbers
- The Cowboys are 22-4 (.846) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the start of the 2016 season – best in NFL. League average: .526
- The Cowboys are 10-3 (.769) when within 7 points at the start of the 2017 season – best in NFL; League Avg: .496
- The Cowboys are 13-3 (.812) when passing for more than 250 yards since the start of the 2016 season – second-best in NFL; League Avg: .515
- The Cowboys are 15-3 (.833) when making 5 or more explosive passes in a game since the start of the 2016 season – best in NFL; League Avg: .532
- The Cowboys were undefeated (8-0) when scoring 22 or more points last season – tied for best in NFL; League Avg: .726
- When Dak Prescott is above his average completion percentage (66.3 percent), his team is 21-4 (.840) since the start of the 2016 season – tied for second-best of 34 Qualified QBs in NFL; League Avg: .628
- The Giants are 3-16 (.158) when within 7 points of the 4th quarter of the 2017 season – worst in NFL. League average: .500
- When Amari Cooper is below his targets (7), his team is 4-12 (.250) since the start of the 2017 season – tied for third-worst of 39 Qualified WRs in NFL; League Avg: .559
Dallas' line is healthy again
Two years ago Dak Prescott went through a bad stretch of football when Tyron Smith missed six games with an injury.
Last year, the Dallas offensive was started by Travis Frederick missing the season with Gullian-Barre Syndrome, and followed by injuries by Connor Williams and Zack Martin.
Two years ago, for Football Outsiders, Dallas' offensive line was fourth in run block, but 15th in sack rate with Smith missing time. Last year, the cowboys is down in the air.
Aimed at the turn of the year, the Dallas offensive line is finally healthy, and that bodes well for their offense. True, Connor McGovern rookie guard Monday, which has impacted their depth. But barring an injury, that will not factor in to Sunday's game.
There are ways an offense can be sub-par (or outright poor), but it is always easier to attack an offensive line. Of course, it 's also true that every quarterback gets worse when they' re under duress, and having a healthy offensive line will make you feel better for the Giants' defense. The Giants invested in their defensive front, adding Dexter Lawrence to the formidable duo of Dalvin Tomlinson and B.J. Hill, but the unit behind them is a question. The team is hoping that Lorenzo Carter can take the next step and be a winner.
1-0 and who starts 0-1 could be a winner in the world of scrimmage.
Does Jason Witten still have "it"
And by "It," I obviously mean the Predator's cloaking device, because it's the only explanation.
Seriously though, Witten's ability to run routes and diagnose and exploit coverings so perfectly throughout his career will likely land him in the Hall of Fame But his work in the past does not matter for right now. What does it matter if it is still able to be reliable in the broadcast cycle?
Specifically for this week, what matters is the Giants can (finally) cover him. The team has gotten a lot in their pass coverage, drafting several corners, Antoine Bethea signing, and formally making 2018 nickel linebacker Tae Davis the starting "moneybacker." In 2018 the Giants' coverage over the middle was hampered by slow processing by Alec Ogletree and poor play by Curtis Riley. The hope is that better play and coordination from Bethlehem, another year in the system for Ogletree, and more But does Witten still have the wheels?
Who's the real MVP?
The answer to that question, at least with regards to the Dallas Cowboys, is obviously Dak Prescott. Starting quarterback is the most important position in football, and arguably the most important position in sports. As the QB goes, so will go the team.
But what about the other 52 players on the roster?
The focus of the offseason has been on Ezekiel Elliott, his contract, and his hold-out. The presumption has been that the Dallas offense simply can not function – or at least not well – without him. But while the Dallas offense is almost certainly better than that, I would argue that Amari Cooper is the player of the Giants need to focus on taking away.
Last year Dallas was mocked for a first round pick to the Oakland Raiders for Amari Cooper, but his acquisition proved to be a turning point in their season. Prior to the trade, Dallas was struggling with a 3-4 record and their future play-off in serious doubt. They went 7-2 after trading for Cooper, winning two final games.
Getting Prescott a true "number one" receiver is a boon, and it's just about every facet of the quarterback's game:
Weeks 1-7 (before Cooper) – 29 attempts per game, 202 yards per game, 62.3 percent completion, 1.1 touchdowns per game.
Prescott's average AY / A (adjusted yards per attempt) was 6.89
Weeks 9-17 (with Cooper) – 36 attempts per game, 274 yards per game, 71.8 percent completion, 1.5 touchdowns per game.
Average AY / A was 8.03.
Elliott was a better runner with cooper than without. Before the Cooperated Cowboys, Elliott average 18.8 carries per game and 4.59 yards per carry. Elliott averaged 21.5 carries per game and 4.79 yards per carry.
The NFL is a passing league, and if the Giants can not get hold of it, it is going to be a long night. But if they can climb a Cooperative from Prescott, then the Giants have a definite chance to start the season with a win.
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