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The Post’s Dave Blezow makes his picks for NFL Week 17 games. Home team in CAPS.
(Note: Selections and point spreads are from Thursday’s Betting Guide).
By the end of Sunday night, the New York Giants could be the NFC East title winners and head into the playoffs. They could be the owners of the third-worst NFL record, which carries with it the third pick in the 2021 Draft. Or the result could end up somewhere in between and not as good as either of these. extremes.
That line reversed six points of a Giants -3 anticipation at Dallas Cowboys -3. The public are clearly in love with the Cowboys offense – which finally took off with Andy Dalton and scored 30, 41 and 37 points over the past three weeks, all victories. The Giants have scored up to 30 points exactly once this season, and that was in the 37-34 loss to the Cowboys on Oct. 11, the game where Dak Prescott was injured. The Giants haven’t scored more than 17 points in any of their last five games.
I think you can kick off the recent scores, and the Cowboys ‘winning streak and Giants’ losing streak through the window starts on Sunday, however. For as much talent the Cowboys have in this game, they are also just as likely to waste that talent. The Giants will attack them hard, with a good plan. If Daniel Jones is healthier and can do more, the Giants can stay alive long enough to activate the Washington-Philadelphia game.
The choice: Giants, +3.
New York Jets (+3) vs. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
The Jets have won two in a row, but just as important for a column like this, they’ve covered the spread in five of their last seven games. That run kicked off Nov. 9 in a 30-27 loss to the Patriots at MetLife Stadium, a game the Jets led by 10 points midway through the fourth quarter. The Patriots are on a short week after losing to the Bills who wrote “season ended” all over the place. The Jets will play tough once again for soon-to-be-fired Adam Gase, and this time around, a win won’t cost them in draft position.
BUFFALO BILLS (-1) on the Miami Dolphins
Miami takes a wild card with a win, which is usually a bigger motivator than the ranking. Buffalo rested the All-Star in Week 17 last year and lost to the Jets, then lost in the first round. I think Sean McDermott is playing this one straight.
CINCINNATI BENGALS (+12) against the Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens also landed a wild card and destroyed Cincinnati, 27-3, on Oct. 11 while Joe Burrow was in good health. There are no style points, however. A sure win of 7-10 points would do the trick. Brandon Allen, who threw 371 yards last week, can keep the Bengals hanging out or put them through the backdoor.
CLEVELAND BROWNS (-10) over the Pittsburgh Steelers
The wide receiver cavalry will return for the Browns, who would win. The Steelers go in the opposite direction, sitting Ben Roethlisberger and a few others. Under normal circumstances, Mason Rudolph could give the Steelers a chance, but it’s essentially Mike Tomlin telling his team that the regular season is over.
Minnesota Vikings (-7) on DETROIT LIONS
Matthew Stafford says he’ll play if he can, but he’s already donated enough body parts to the Lions’ desperate cause. Dalvin Cook is out, but the Vikings have other full backs who can get a few yards and maintain the double threat.
Atlanta Falcons (+6.5) over TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Good for Bruce Arians to keep his foot on the accelerator after clinching a playoff berth, that makes sense because the fifth-seeded faces NFC East in the first round. But let’s stick with Matt Ryan and the Falcons, who belatedly missed an overtime field goal in Kansas City.
CHICAGO BEARS (+5.5) over the Green Bay Packers
The Bears have won three straight wins and would claim a win here. The Packers could clinch the seed, allowing them to be the only NFC team to rest next week. They’ll do everything, but there’s plenty of room under this number.
Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5) vs. DENVER BRONCOS
The Raiders are 1-5 in their last six games, and the win has been a disaster for Gregg Williams. But in every game you can still see how dangerous this team is. The Broncos archival will bring out the best.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+14) on INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
The Jaguars face the only team they beat, long ago in Week 1. The Colts need a win and a loss in Tennessee, and could face a disappointment if the Titans win big in the dashboard. No need for Jags to tank now that Trevor Lawrence is secure.
Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) on KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
KC clinched the AFC seed and Andy Reid will rest players including Patrick Mahomes. The Chargers have had a frustrating season but still have the firepower to beat a selfless foe.
Arizona Cardinals (+1) v LOS ANGELES RAMS
As much as I respect Sean McVay and fear Aaron Donald, this game seems to come down to Kyler Murray playing (possibly diminished), and John Wolford replacing Jared Goff (and being without Cooper Kupp).
San Francisco 49ers (+5.5) on Seattle Seahawks
Seattle needs both the Packers and the Saints to lose to have a chance at the seed. If there’s bad news on the scoreboard in Glendale, Ariz., It could give the 49ers a chance to cover or upset.
CAROLINA PANTHERS (+6.5) vs. New Orleans Saints
New Orleans still have a chance against the No.1 seed and goodbye, but can’t imagine Sean Payton letting Drew Brees take too many hits here. Teddy Bridgewater is still 7-3 CEP as an underdog this season and 24-6 as a career dog because the Panthers closed as a 1 point favorite in Washington last week.
(Update: The Saints will be without Alvin Kamara, who tested positive for COVID, and all of their running backs will miss the game because they were close contacts. Line dropped by half a point to Saints – 6).
Tennessee Titans (-7.5) on HOUSTON TEXANS
Houston has burned me several times as an underdog, but I have confidence in Mike Vrabel to rebound from loss in the snow to the Packers. Prior to that, the Titans were averaging 37.4 points per game in their previous five games, and the Texans D have been horrible.
Washington (-1.5) on PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
It’s still early in the week so we have to guess if Alex Smith will play for the WFT. While his availability has a say in the outcome, the defensive line of Chase Young, Jonathan Allen and Montez Sweat is what gives Washington their best shot at crossing the NFC East finish line.
Best bets: Bengals, Falcons, Jaguars
Lock of the week: Bengals (locks 4-11-1 in 2020).
Last week: 9-7 in total, 2-1 best bets.
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