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COVID-19 has taken its toll with the NFL’s Week 12 schedule. The Thanksgiving game between the Baltimore Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers has been pushed back to Sunday afternoon and then back to Tuesday night due to an outbreak of positive tests on the Ravens, including quarterback Lamar Jackson.
The Denver Broncos may have to use a running back in the home quarterback Sunday against the New Orleans Saints.
Here are my picks for the rest of the weekend, with lines and comments from Wednesday’s Post’s Bettor Guide and updates as needed.
Home teams in CAPS:
Sunday
New York Giants (-5) on CINCINNATI BENGALS
The Bengals don’t have much time to prepare Brandon Allen to resume the offense from Joe Burrow. Allen was the pick after Ryan Finley did nothing last week in the second half as a 9-7 lead over Washington turned into a 20-9 loss. The moderate road favorite has been a new role for the Giants lately, but Joe Judge’s side leads the NFC 7-3 ATS and is on a divisional playoff chase while their opponent has finished.
Update: The current line is Giants -6.
NEW YORK JETS (+7) on the Miami Dolphins
What a difference a receiving body makes. Denzel Mims extends the field, shoots penalties and makes disputed holds. Jamison Crowder and Breshad Perriman are contributing to it, and there was even a sighting from Chris Herndon last week. It’s no coincidence that they are 3-1 ATS since this crew got together. If Sam Darnold returns, he’ll play for his career in the Jets, and a few wins can get Trevor Lawrence out of the picture. The Dolphins couldn’t handle it as a 3.5-point road favorites in Denver and I have no interest in doubling that down.
Update: Ryan Fitzpatrick is set to start at the Dolphins quarterback with rookie Tua Tagovailoa seen as questionable with a thumb injury. The line remains Dolphins -7.
Los Angeles Raiders (-3) on ATLANTA FALCONS
The Raiders offense got extremely dangerous with a ground game from Josh Jacobs, Henry Ruggs deep threat and Darren Waller catching everything else. Kolton Miller’s return to the left tackle really helps Derek Carr. Maxx Crosby and Jonathan Abram will make enough defensive plays to help Vegas pull out.
Update: Falcons RB Todd Gurley will miss the game with a knee injury. The line remains Raiders -3.
Los Angeles Chargers (+6) on BUFFALO BILLS
Rightfully so, they stayed away from the Chargers as big favorites last week and were rewarded with some nice back coverage by the Jets. This time around we’re taking Los Angeles with enough points to eventually inoculate ourselves against one of its cardholders should have won, but we blew it off. While the Chargers are 3-7 and the Bills are 7-3, both teams are 5-5 ATS. Justin Herbert, the former Oregon Duck, shouldn’t have much of a problem with Orchard Park forecast with partial sunshine, 49 degrees and light to moderate winds.
Update: Chargers have started IR’s RB Austin Ekeler and it’s expected to return to the lineup. The Bills put critically endangered WR John Brown and OL Cody Ford on IR. The line fell to Bills -4.
Tennessee Titans (+4) on INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Tennessee quickly took revenge for their 34-17 home loss to the Colts two weeks ago. Indianapolis deserved the win, but it’s a new day for two 7-3 teams. Imagine that Mike Vrabel will have something new, and there seems to be a little more Titans value at that price.
Update: The Colts will be without a start RB Jonathan Taylor, who was placed on the COVID list on Saturday. The line dipped to Colts -3.
Carolina Panthers (+4.5) ahead of MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Teddy Bridgewater is still uncertain for the Panthers, but it looked like he was set to return last week. Carolina has covered four road spreads, most notably in New Orleans and Kansas City. The Vikings looked like they were starting to roll before giving up 180 rushing yards in a loss to Dallas.
Update: Bridgewater is indeed set to make the start on Sunday against the team he started his career for. The line fell to Vikings -3.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (+2.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals
The line shuttled between 2.5 and 3, with sharp punters dipping to Patriots +3. I don’t get their price, but it at least seems to be the sharper side.
Update: Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray, who appeared to have suffered a shoulder injury in the previous game against the Seahawks, was taken off the injury list at the weekend and everything is said to be fine. The line, however, fell to Cardinals -1.5.
Cleveland Browns (-6.5) ahead of JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
The Browns have given up just 30 points in their last three games. They performed in terrible weather, but they also terrorized Carson Wentz last week. The Jags lost the excellent DE Josh Allen and two other defensive starters last week.
Update: WR DJ Chark and Chris Conley also left for the Jaguars. The Browns will miss CB Denzel Ward. The line went to Browns -7.
DENVER BRONCOS (+6) against the New Orleans Saints
The Saints have now won their last six games without Drew Brees in the past two seasons as Taysom Hill opened wide in a 24-9 victory over the Falcons. Nonetheless, there is room here for the Saints to win again but not cover up, as Hill has to win outside on the grass.
Update: According to several reports on Saturday night, three quarterbacks – Drew Lock, Brett Rypien and Blake Bortles – were taken off the training ground on Saturday and sent home over concerns over their maskless contact with quarterback Jeff Driskel, infected with COVID-19. ESPN has reported that WR Kendall Hinton or RB Royce Freeman may be required to play quarterback. The game was taken off the table in most sports betting on Saturday night and then reposted at many Saints -14 or -14.5.
San Francisco 49ers (+6.5) on LOS ANGELES RAMS
This is as big a rest gap as you’ll see in the NFL, with the 49ers being goodbye and the Rams set to travel across the country after a physical victory Monday night in Tampa Bay.
Update: The 49ers announced on Saturday that three players – RB Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. and CB Richard Sherman – have been activated outside of IR. In addition, OT Trent Williams and LB Joe Walker have been disabled from the COVID-19 list and both are listed as questionable. The line remains Rams -6.5.
The Bucs were terrible in prime time, but great on Sunday, and it’s a great place to bounce back for Tom Brady. This gives the impression of a game that will see a lot of lead changes and even a small gap could matter.
Update: Bucs coach Bruce Arians said center AQ Shipley was asked to retire after sustaining a neck injury in the loss to the Rams last week. The line remains Chiefs -3.5.
GREEN BAY PACKERS (-8.5) on Chicago Bears
The prime-time dogs have been good bets this season (22-12 ATS). But even though the Bears are goodbye, they still have no idea who their quarterback will be, as Nick Foles and Mitch Trubisky are injured. You don’t want to be on this side if the answer is Tyler Bray.
Update: The Bears has put an end to the mystery and named Trubisky as the starter of this game. Interestingly, the line went half a notch down to Packers -9.
Monday night football
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (+5) on the Seattle Seahawks
Carson Wentz was brutal and Doug Pederson gave him no answer. You wonder if the Seattle defense, which gave up the worst (by far) 343.7 passing yards per game, might be the tonic they both need. The Eagles still have a good team, if the attack can come out of the ditch.
Update: Lane Johnson, arguably the Eagles’ best offensive lineman, is out for the season after sustaining an ankle injury last week in Cleveland. The line jumped a bit at Seahawks -5.5.
Tuesday evening
Baltimore Ravens at PITTSBURGH STEELERS
The game was off the table on all sports betting as of Saturday night. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson and RB Mark Ingram and JK Dobbins were excluded and six other players were placed on the reserve / COVID-19 roster on Saturday. If this game is played, the Post’s betting guide handicappers and Richard Witt will make further selections from the dominant points spread. You can find it in the Tuesday editions of The Post and at nypost.com.
Best bets: Maroons, giants, chargers.
Lock of the week: Browns (locks 3-7-1 in 2020).
Last week: 5-9 in total, 1-2 best bets.
Thanksiving: 1-1. Lions (L), Washington (W).
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