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(Reuters) – Goldman Sachs has reduced its target for economic growth in the United States to 5.6% for 2021 and 4% for 2022, citing an expected decline in budget support until the end of next year and a consumer spending recovery later than expected.
The company previously forecast gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 5.7% in 2021 and 4.4% in 2022, according to a study released Sunday by authors including its chief economist Jan Hatzius.
They pointed to a “more lasting viral drag on virus-sensitive consumer services” as well as an expectation that semiconductor supply is unlikely to improve until the first half of 2022, delaying inventory replenishment. until next year.
And in addition to the near-term viral trail, they also expect spending on certain services and non-durable goods to consistently remain below pre-pandemic trends, especially “if a shift to remote working causes some workers spend less overall “.
On a quarterly basis, Goldman lowered its fourth quarter 2021 and first quarter 2022 GDP estimates to 4.5% from 5% and lowered its second quarter 2022 estimate to 4% from 4.5% while reducing its third quarter estimate at 3% versus 3.5%. .
However, he increased his estimate for the fourth quarter of 2022 to 1.75%, from 1.5%.
(Reporting by Sinéad Carew; Editing by Lisa Shumaker)
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