GOP gears up to inflict maximum pain on Democrats in debt ceiling fight

• Republicans should hamper Democrats’ efforts to avoid a government default.
• It seems likely that the Democrats will have to raise the debt ceiling themselves, via a reconciliation bill.
• Some Republican senators are prepared to prolong the process to inflict pain on Democrats.

Republicans are blocking Democrats ‘attempts to renew the United States’ ability to pay its bills, pushing the United States closer to the precipice of default.

Congress has just 16 days to raise or suspend the debt ceiling to avoid what could be a catastrophic blow to the economy, ranging from delays in Social Security checks to the elderly, to turmoil over financial markets and cuts to social protection programs like Unemployment Insurance and Medicaid. . The world’s confidence in the dollar would wane. Interest rates would skyrocket, leading to the waiver of mortgage payments, auto loans and credit cards. The S&P rating agency would lower its rating to the worst possible rank of D.

Raising the debt ceiling allows the U.S. government to pay back what it owes, and the limit had to be lifted this year, regardless of Biden’s spending plans. Democrats are pressuring Republicans to help increase it, arguing that both sides have accumulated $ 7.8 trillion in new debt under the Trump administration. Republicans have also raised or suspended the debt ceiling three times under President Donald Trump.

Now that Biden is in power, the GOP is changing course and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is leading the GOP campaign to demand Democrats themselves lift the limit, stepping up efforts to undermine the president’s national agenda. Joe Biden.

Attempts by Democrats to shame McConnell in caving have so far failed. At the same time, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said on Wednesday that Democrats “cannot and will” use budget reconciliation to solve the problem.

Time is running out with no sign of breaking the deadlock.

AP Photo / J. Scott Applewhite

Republicans prepare a round of time-consuming amendments

Even if Schumer changes his mind, some Republicans are preparing to drag out the process to inflict maximum pain on Democrats as they begin to negotiate changes to a $ 3.5 trillion social spending program. They will have plenty of opportunities to do so, because the Democrats’ best bet for raising the ceiling on their own is reconciliation, an arduous and time-consuming process governed by strict fiscal rules. It also allows certain bills to be passed with a majority of only 50 votes.

Some experts say it would take at least two weeks for a party line debt limit increase to succeed. Part of it includes the so-called vote-a-rama, which forces lawmakers to take politically uncomfortable votes one after another in an event that can last for more than 12 hours.

Some Republicans are already expecting to delay an increase in the Democrats’ debt limit with their own amendments.

“We plan to use the rules and also slow down a lot of very bad policies that will forever transform the country,” Senator John Cornyn of Texas, a close ally of McConnell, told Insider. “I don’t mind seeing them wasting some time on reconciliation, which makes them less likely to pass their reckless spending bill.”

“If we have another vote-a-rama, I’m sure I’ll have some amendments at this point. I don’t have one at this stage. We will cross this bridge when we get there, ”Senator Mitt Romney of Utah told Insider.

Others are less certain but still do not consider facilitating reconciliation. If Democrats continue with a reconciliation effort, “there will be amendments as there always are,” Senator Ted Cruz told Insider, adding that Democrats “could inevitably pass whatever they can get with 50 votes. “.

“My personal interest is not to make the process more difficult. I don’t want to make it any easier, because [Democrats] already have all the tools and authorities they need to do it on their own from start to finish, ”North Dakota Sen. Kevin Cramer told Insider.

Another rule in the process could bring political advantages to Republicans and wriggle some Democrats around midterm next year. Reconciliation would likely force Democrats to set a specific debt ceiling to demonstrate it has an effect on the federal budget.

“[Democrats] have to put a number in it, ”Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin told Insider. “They need to show the American public how much they’re going to have to raise the debt ceiling to meet their deficit spending. That is why they must resort to reconciliation. “

The threat of a prolonged a-rama vote would probably not be enough to kill the Democrats’ efforts. A wave of amendments would likely only delay the final vote, and Schumer is unlikely to introduce a bill unless it is positive. Democrats are united to raise the ceiling.

Some are already breaking with Democratic leaders and urging their party to take unilateral action perhaps as early as next week.

“Democrats have all the levers. Even if [Republicans] wants to flirt with default, we won’t allow it, “Virginia Senator Tim Kaine told Insider, saying Democrats shouldn’t wait until the 11th hour and should” just do it “on their own.

Still, it could cement the debt ceiling as a political bludgeon rather than a tool for meeting financial obligations. Raising the limit has long been a bipartisan effort, and has been successful 78 times since 1960. Republicans even enjoyed some Democratic support when they decided to drop the cap in 2017.

This precedent now seems to be on its last legs. And with the debt ceiling still intact, Congress risks another last-minute showdown with serious stakes.