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Senior Republican officials are convinced that President Trump will not cause lasting damage because of new allegations that he has pressured Ukraine to investigate his political rival Joe Biden.
Republican strategists do not reject the gravity of the charges. They are simply skeptical that the current scandal is no more damaging to Trump than to the GOP voters than to a two-year federal inquiry into charges of colluding with Russia to defeat Hillary Clinton. Some Republicans even see an advantage. The indictment lacks critical support from voters, but Democrats in the House are more likely to want to remove the president by extra-electoral means, risking a negative reaction.
"Withdrawal is Trump's asset," said veteran Republican consultant Brad Todd at Washington Examiner. "This would convince many eligible voters that Democrats are totally indifferent to the priorities of their wallets."
"I have not seen any evidence yet that Trump was hurting the Republicans," said Republican strategist Alex Conant. "The Democrats rush to the impeachment to force everyone to join the supporters, which helps Trump in the short term. The essential thing to watch for is whether more Republicans in the Senate are starting to express their criticism. "
Trump refutes allegations that he acted badly in conversations with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, urging him to investigate Biden, the former vice president and leading candidate for the Democratic nomination. The accusation, which Trump has unequivocally denied, suggests that the president has asked a foreign government to overthrow a potential challenger for 2020 that would drag him into dozens of hypothetical confrontations. Trump's personal lawyer, Rudolph Giuliani, made similar requests to Ukrainian officials.
Trump and his campaign are trying to make the most of the situation by raising new reports on Hunter Biden's dubious business dealings in Ukraine while his father was vice-president. The president's allies insinuate that Biden has corruptly used his position as emissary of President Barack Obama's foreign policy to influence Ukraine on behalf of his son. Trump could possibly reverse the situation on Biden, although Republicans are worried about his exposure.
But the steady numbers of Trump voters during his turbulent presidency fueled their optimism.
The approval of his work throughout the investigation of Russia, led by the Robert Mueller Special Council, fluctuated between 39% and 45%. Given this and the polarization of American voters' opinions on Trump, Republicans are less worried about the scandal in Ukraine undermining the re-election of the president than they were at the start of the affair with Russia. The skepticism of Republican voters over media reports criticizing Trump is another reason why party insiders doubt that the incident in Ukraine is leaving any trace.
"The theory of collusion in Russia has finally been dissolved, despite leaks, whistleblowers and hyperventilation of the media," said Scott Jennings, Republican strategist in Louisville close to the leader of the majority in the United States. Senate, Mitch McConnell, Kentucky. "Republicans should be forgiven for saying," We have already seen this film and we know how it ends. "
The Democratic leaders of the Congress are reluctant to accept the dismissal.
In the House, where Democrats control the majority, enough votes to support the indictment would likely materialize if California President Nancy Pelosi gave the go-ahead. But in the Senate, where Republicans reign, there would probably not be enough votes to remove Trump from office. Pelosi's main concern was the voters. A majority opposes dismissal in most opinion polls. Independent voters and majority voters are particularly reluctant to oust Trump in this way. But Pelosi could now be forced to move forward with impeachment.
However, some Republican insiders have nuanced their forecasts. They said that if irrefutable evidence appeared that Trump was relying on Zelensky to target Biden, it could change the political calculation. Indeed, if Trump indicated to Zelensky that his compliance was a condition of US military aid, as some critics suggest, the president risked jeopardizing his chances of reelection.
"If the worst case scenario turns out to be true and the president actually recognizes that he ordered the red code, then yes, I think it will have a negative impact on Trump's position with this small universe but influential voters persuadable, "said Jim Merrill, Republican strategist. in New Hampshire.
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