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The effort to hold back Republicans who have won races in tough states was highlighted Monday when Sen. Rob Portman surprised Republicans by announcing he would not run for a third term in Ohio. Republicans will still be favored in Buckeye State but will now face a primary that already seems crowded, with a long list of Republicans considering or already taking action to run.
And there are already fears that others could join him in running for exits as the GOP prepares to serve in the minority for the first time since 2013. Next year’s Senate card has enough swing states that Republicans could take back a majority – but they could just as easily lose more seats.
Republicans are hoping that if anyone else plans to step down, they will announce it soon – as Portman did this year, and not like former Maine Senator Olympia Snowe in 2012 when she retired two weeks before the filing deadline.
“It’s more difficult when you have open seats than when you have incumbents, so hopefully we don’t have any more,” said Senator John Cornyn (R-Texas), who led the election campaign. from his party in 2010 and 2012. “If they retire, I think it’s the right thing to do it early to give other people a chance to get in.
Still, Johnson and other indecisive senators do not seem in a rush. Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), who is 87, said to register with him “in several months”. Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.), GOP Leader No.4, said he did not have a specific timeline for making an official decision. Missouri is a red state and Republicans would be favored there, although Blunt won only narrowly in 2016.
“I still plan to run. But it will become official when I announce a campaign. And I’m not doing that yet, ”Blunt said. “I really haven’t given it much thought to tell you the truth. … I keep thinking that there will be a bit of a breathing space, so far that is not happening.
Republican strategists and advisers said concern over a wave of retirements stems from the party’s unexpectedly losing majority in Georgia earlier this month, with Senators who were on their way to another two years in power suddenly relegated to minority status, and the Capitol under siege by a violent mob the next day.
Additionally, the GOP is settling down for its second impeachment trial and has just spent the better part of five years answering questions about Trump’s combative rhetoric, erratic policy decisions, and the occasional outbursts against members of his own party. .
“After the riot and four years of Trump, which GOP senator in 2022 hasn’t thought about leaving?” said TJ Petrizzo, lobbyist and Republican donor.
For now, much of the focus is on Johnson, as the new Republican National Senate Committee Chairman Rick Scott (R-Fla.), Began trying to convince him to run again in the fall of last year.
Bill McCoshen, a veteran GOP strategist in Wisconsin, said the state’s Republican base is hoping he is seeking a third term and viewed some of his recent comments about the 50-50 split in the chamber as signs positive.
“The base wants to see him run again, and they think he’s starting to pivot to do it,” McCoshen said. “I think he understands the importance of his seat to Republicans who hope to regain a majority in 2022, and the base is hoping he reconsiders not running.
Other senators on the retirement watch list include 80-year-old Senator Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.), Who has served since 1975 and has just become President of the Senate pro tempore for the second time. Leahy was hospitalized on Tuesday after feeling ill on the advice of the Senate attending physician, according to a statement from her office. On the Republican side, 86 years old Senator Richard Shelby (R-Ala.) Is considered a possible retirement, although his seat would be Republican safely. Shelby said he will address his future after the impeachment trial.
Grassley, who would be in his 90s for a good chunk of a potential eighth term, doesn’t understand what it is: “I’ve done it seven times. It’s no different from other times, ”he said on Tuesday. Grassley’s grandson Pat Grassley is the Iowa State Speaker of the House and may succeed him.
The Republican House caucus was also plagued by a wave of retirements in 2018 that ultimately contributed to the loss of the chamber. But with Democrats controlling only a 50-50 Senate and facing a midterm election with a Democrat in the White House, the Republicans’ direct path to majority is likely to prevent further rush to exits.
“The big change here is from majority to minority,” said Scott Reed, a GOP veteran and former US Chamber of Commerce political strategist. “It’s no fun being in the minority as a leader. You lose all your power. “
Reed, however, played down concerns about the effects retirements could have on their outlook in 2022.
“I don’t think that’s a cause for panic, at all,” he said.
Chris Hartline, a spokesperson for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, also dismissed the idea that retirements would be a problem.
“We are confident that we will have strong candidates in all of these states, and they will present a clear alternative to the Democrats’ radical agenda to fundamentally change America,” Hartline said in a statement. “And we are convinced that we will keep these seats and win back the majority.”
In some ways, the 2022 election will be unlike any other. Trump has indicated he will continue to play in the primaries and reduce the prospects for those who have challenged him.
Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) was the only GOP senator to be re-elected to vote against rejecting Trump’s second trial as unconstitutional. She reiterated that she was running for re-election on Tuesday: “How come everyone is asking me that today?”
“An impeachment doesn’t come at a time that is convenient for people’s campaign calendars,” Murkowski said, indicating if his vote would hurt his prospects in Alaska. She was re-elected in 2010, even after losing her primary to a right-wing candidate and being forced to run a written general election campaign.
Republicans are optimistic that despite everything Trump has done to change the party, the midterm approach will be conventional. They are already indicating they are going against Biden’s agenda and are betting on 2022 after the previous one, with the out-of-power party making gains.
After all, the GOP only needs a majority seat and has opportunities in Nevada, Arizona, New Hampshire, and Georgia, among others.
“I think it will be a good term for us because we are in the middle of the term of a Democratic president, determined to destroy the economy. I think we’ll have the momentum, ”said Sen. Kevin Cramer (RN.D.).
Cramer said he not too concerned about retirements but admitted: “It’s easy for me to say that. John Hoeven is running in North Dakota. “
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