Upgrade in Athens before rebalancing

One could say that this meeting surprised even the most optimistic and it remains to be seen if current buyers display the same aggressive attitudes at the catalytic meeting of tomorrow.

As an "easy" reason for today's bullish movement, we could mention the positive international stock market climate, Positive messages of obligations and the recent Moody's report on the Bank's "red" loan proposal.

By taking things in turn, the European markets are moving in positive signs but fully controlled profits, following statements made yesterday by the President of the Fed, Jerome Powell which left open the possibility that the Central Bank will slow down the rise in US interest rates next year.

The president of the US central bank said he "thought that interest rates are now close to the neutral level".

Meanwhile, it seems to continue defusing returns for Obligations of the Greek Government, the 10-year Greek rate being 4.23% (-5 basis points).

Moody's credit rating is positive for the Bank of Greece's proposal to solve the problem of "red" loans. "It is necessary dramatic movement free the branch, "he says.

To return to today's meeting, it should be noted that today's reaction has been accompanied by a sharp increase in turnover (the highest of the last three meetings and overall reinforced measures), but also of a "general mobilization" of the vast majority of the high-capitalization securities, with negative sign, only the titles of the meeting were completed EEC (-0.19%), Titan (-0.41%), motor oil (-0.49%) and OPAP and Sarantis.

All of the above could not change the cautious view of a significant number of market players, believing that the current recovery resulted from two concrete efforts.

First, some traders are convinced that the "inconvenience" of valuations on the Athens Stock Exchange ends somewhere here. and rush to place, facilitating the "work" of potential sellers and second and most important, to create a "price pillow" for the catalyst session of tomorrow due to the final restructuring of the portfolios that bring changes made to MSCI.

With all the above, it is more than obvious whether tomorrow's meeting is decisive because it remains to be seen if there is a return of sellers and even more to what extent the "buyers" ("strong") will be the current buyers (!)

First estimates of badysts

"The process of forced liquidation of banks is expected to characterize the session today, as indirect actions alternate in the loss – making process for the DOJ. Wall Street will likely help shape "National Bank, Alpha Bank and Lamda today announce 9-month results," the company said. Cycle of titles.

"We are waiting for the same model of meeting and for today, as we approach the restructuring of the MSCI indicators," she said in her own estimates. Beta Sec.

Back to the Athens Stock Exchange and from there The bank, It should be noted that the total indicative actions of the Bank and therefore of their sectoral index have evolved permanently with a positive sign.

The CPP, which permanently pbades to the "green", reached 458.38 points (+ 9.46%), at 17:00, it decreased slightly to 455.8 (+ 8,84%) and, during the last auction, closed the meeting at 452, 69 units, with a daily profit of 8.10%.

Note that today + 8.10% of the banking index, This is the largest increase of the last 26 meetings, the highest being recorded on 24/10 (+ 9.45%).

It should be recalled that the daily "stop short" for the banking index is 483 points, for the Alpha Bank (+ 7.59%) to € 1,228 over the year National (+ 4.21%) to 1.13 EUR for the year Eurobank (+ 13.03%) to 0.585 EUR and in EUR Piraeus (+ 2.11%) to 1,048 euros.

Moreover, it is understandable that 13.03% of today's Eurobank also took over Grivalia (+ 11.07%) due to the announced exchange rate.

Remaining in the banking sector, a binding agreement with Apollo and IFC for the sale of unproductive debt of an amount of one billion ("Jupiter" project), as well as the recovered property, Alpha Bank.

On the other hand, we can not say that the present image of Agora, surprised almost all national badysts, which, in their convergent estimates, indicated as predominant scenario this increased volatility and the "rotation" of large cap stocks, so that the overall index remains above the psychological limit of 600 points.

Forthcoming Non-bank 25h and with the exception of Grivalia, the impressions obtained today of + 8.21% for Mytilineos, following the presentation of the group in ETH.

The share after six meetings is back higher than the psychological limit of 7.00 euros. In case of return of the sellers, the last, strong, resists 6,08 euros. At 8.28 euros, the newspaper "stops short".

It has completed 8 meetings with closing prices of less than EUR 7.00 per share. Sarantis (0%), while today and despite the "feudal" climate that prevailed in the ATHEX, it has not come into contact with the positive sign. At a significant support of € 6.60, at € 7.18 a day, "stop short".

Decrease in capitalization today, but for opposite reasons, the attention of traders has attracted the movement of Intralot (+ 20.37%) and Intracom (+ 14.73%) after the announcement of the old compared to the excessive decline in the share price.

According to the announcement of the listed company, "the significant decline of the stock it is not justified by negative commercial development, or any other event to the knowledge of the company and according to our estimate is due to unrealistic rumors. The company will consider taking additional measures to defend its credibility and defend the interests of its investors against non-existent rumors. "

At the same time, QCM categorically denied having "opened a short position" on Intralot. Recent press speculation is pure imagination. "

Stay in the "lower layers of the plateau", steadily declining from 59.4 euros (closing on 13/11) Mermeren (-2.75%), the announcement of the next AMC. with cash payment has not received a positive welcome for her Motodynamique (-5.66%), second in the presence of a seller for Q & A (-3.93%), if he's not technically in a hurry, the problem worries him Kekropa (-2.70%), before 4 December (Court), while in Trafficking in human beings (0%) remained "blocked" customer order 392923 pcs. at the price of 0.0795 euros, with the title to end the session with zero transaction (!)

On the other hand, buyers have returned to Mouzakis (+ 9.93%), but a "paper" to acquire "fans" should show consistency and continuity in the table and not just react to -8.44% yesterday.

Technically, as for the main ATHEX indices, General Index If it closes more than 619 units, the short-term charts indicate a margin of 658 times with an intermediate resistance of 636 units.

Instead of that, "withdrawal" with a close below 602 points, will open the "hatch" to retreat to 593 and 580 points.

According to the daily charts, the "stop short" fell to 619 and the next resistances to 640 and 670.

For the index uppercase (+ 2.20%), the upward evasion confirmed higher than the 1587-1600 band, returns 1675 units in the frame of the badyst. The approach and, above all, the move above 1675 points will result in a significant closing of the closed portfolios, which will therefore require a significant increase in demand in order to absorb the supply.

Conversely, retirement with closure less than 1548 – 1534 units worsen the technical situation by restoring the 1400 approach scenarios.

According to the daily charts, intended for more "fast" players, for the high capitalization index, "stop short" reached 1623 units, but because of the "special circumstances" that prevailed today, the meeting tomorrow must also be confirmed. The next resistance at 1654 and 1675 units. In case of return of the sellers, the first supports to 1575, 1549 and 1515 units.

What do market badysts comment?

"The current technical reaction to the Greek Stock Exchange does not change the long-term picture of the money market and the Greek economy, it's just a necessary glimpse of the recent pressure of valuations," he said. he declared. Loukas Papaioannou.

The meeting tomorrow will be the catalyst of what will follow for 3 reasons.

November, as regards the Greek stock market, during the closing of the calendar month, is also annual closing of the book for several foreign institutes. Exceptionally, this year is also the same as the release date for the MSCI indicators, whose recent changes have affected the banking sector and not only.

For international markets, this November 30 is identical to the 13th session of the "G20" in Buenos Aires and all eyes will be on the decisions that will be taken to defuse the Sino-US trade war. Any failure to de-escalate tensions or, worse yet, to raise tariffs will directly and negatively affect not only the two countries involved, but the entire international economic system.

The Greek economy and money market, given the persistent problems of the international economic environment, remain fragile. H Italian crisis for the budget and the amount of the deficit it continues, but at lower levels due to the pressure exerted by the continued exit of the country's deposits, as well as the high interest rate of the bond at 10 years. The 10-year US bond remains above 3%, despite Powell's favorable statements. In addition, geopolitical risk was transferred to Crimea and Ukraine until it returned to the forefront.

In all these areas, the structural problems inherent in the Greek economy remain. The new budget budget continues on the same basis overpopulated and irreproachable, maintain the 10-year Greek bond at the prohibitive level of 4.30%.

So, with diligence postpone any attempt to exit the markets, in the distant unknown future. Public investment is under control for another year: for the first time since 2014, private wages fell by about -3.5%, public employees (permanent and non-permanent) continue to grow, same as public debt, which rose to 323%, 38 billion euros (6/2018).

Despite weak macroeconomic conditions, it is difficult to maintain the economic climate at current levels, and this development will hardly catch up with the projected target of 2.10% for 2018.

The "frosting" in the explosive and economical Greek "cake", are indebtedness of individuals towards the treasury historically, reaching 104 billion euros and the heavy month of December still remains.

The "Pickled" public investment program of 2018 deprives the Greek economy of valuable cash, badociated with the increasing ongoing commitments of the state towards individuals. In addition to this and the official beginning of the pre-election period, the country's macroeconomic future appears problematic.

Banks continue to be the "weakest link"despite the current reaction. They continue to be unable to directly manage the accumulated unsecured loans, inventing "imaginative" accounting solutions, such as the recent merger of Eurobank – Grivalia to escape the time pressure imposed on them. The market wants time to fully evaluate this business.

Do not forget that a few years ago followed the very opposite strategy, giving up an activity was not a "main activity" (as advised by the supervisory authorities) and even recorded significant losses.

But they do not solve their fundamental problem, which is increased liquidity (via deposits or faster collection – reduction of "red" loans). On the other hand, for the first time since 2017, the total deposits of the system decreased by approximately 343 million euros. Thus, despite the 8.1% decline in the index, the Bank remains below 465 units, splitting technical support. The band of 475 to 480 units is the first resistance. Only the split can lead to a significant next approach on 550, which is the 38.20% Fibonacci level of the last big downward move. The 400 units are the line of defense recently tested to avoid the worst situations.

The general index, with its current answer, must keep the level of 618-620 units, create the conditions to reach the next level of strong resistances from 640 to 650 units. The daily closing below 600 units will add to its already technically negative image, opening the appetite of short sellers for 590 to 580 units.

A corresponding daily break of more than 1,630 units in the FTSE25 increases the chances of redeploying units 1650 and 1670. The 1590 units are the first close support with the next in 1550.

Whereas special gravity November 30, due to the completion of the outflow of stocks out of the MSCI indices, despite the current feudal climate, we expect the completion of tomorrow's meeting as a security filter, attracting the attention of buyers potential and retaining our cautious attitude until Monday.

"Because we constantly point out that the identification of the stocks we would like to have in our portfolio and at what prices should be the main target of potential investors, we think that the share of the company MytileneAs a result of today's presentation to the Union of Institutional Investors and management announcements for the coming years, this should definitely be one of the long-term options for the years to come. After having corrected more than 30% of the recent high, the breakout of € 7.65 is a technical entry point, "says Fast Finance economist AEPEY.

International economic developments

With mixed signs, the main Asian and peaceful markets have been completed today.

Mixed environments in Europe, Wall Street corrects Wall Street yesterday.

Oil profits, less for gold and the euro.

The Swiss economy was surprisingly slowing down in the last quarter. Swiss GDP declined 0.2% qoq, according to data from the Ministry of Finance, with an annual growth rate of 2.4%. Economists were expecting a slight increase in GDP from the previous quarter and an annual growth of 2.7%.

"His building Deutsche Bank, which includes its headquarters in Frankfurt, is being investigated by prosecutors as part of a money laundering investigation, "according to Bloomberg.

According to reports, about 170 prosecutors, police inspectors and tax inspectors are involved in the investigation.

Its downward trend continued in November the economic climate in the euro area. The economic climate in 19 euro area countries slipped to 109.5 points in November, against 109.7 in October, according to the European Commission. Economists were expecting a bigger drop to 109 points.

Inflation in Germany, harmonized so that it could be compared to the rest of the euro area countries, it stood at 2.2% y / y in November, according to preliminary data from the Statistical Service. Forecasts accounted for 2.3%, up from 2.4% in October. However, it remains above the target of the European Central Bank.

"The increasing intensity towards him Italian budget, could affect other highly indebted euro zone countries ", according to the European Central Bank, which warns of a sharp rise in borrowing costs.

Italy's high spending, the potential end of the US growth cycle and the signs of an overestimated real estate market are among the concerns.

New claims for unemployment benefits in the United States reached 234,000 last week, ended November 24, increasing by 10,000. Analysts estimate the lower number (220,000) at their highest level since May.

Consumer spending rose 0.6% in October, the strongest this year. As reported by Reuters, personal income rose 0.5%.

At the same time, inflation remained unchanged at 2%, based on the personal consumption index (PCE), which the Fed is monitoring closely. O δομικός δείκτης PCE, ο οποίος δεν λαμβάνει υπόψη τα Τρόφιμα και την Ενέργεια, ενισχύθηκε κατά 1,8% σε σχέση με τον Οκτώβριο του περασμένου έτους.

Οι επικείμενες πωλήσεις κατοικιών υποχώρησαν τον Οκτώβριο στις ΗΠΑ. Με βάση τα στοιχεία της Αμερικανικής Ένωσης Μεσιτών (NAR), ο δείκτης επικείμενων πωλήσεων σημείωσε πτώση 2,6%, στις 101,1 μονάδες. Το επίπεδο αυτό είναι το χαμηλότερο των τελευταίων τεσσάρων μηνών. Οι αναλυτές που συμμετείχαν σε δημοσκόπηση του Reuters, προέβλεπαν άνοδο κατά 0.5%.

Μένοντας στις Διεθνείς Αγορές και για όσους ασχολούνται με τους διεθνείς δείκτες, η στήλη παραθέτει τις απόψεις – εκτιμήσεις του Απόστολου Μάνθου (AENAON MARKETS):

Π ο ο ο ν ν ν ν χ χ ο Γερμανικός δείκτης DAX 30, δοκιμάζοντας κατά διαστήματα την είσοδό του στο εύρος διακύμανσης μεταξύ των 11400 με 11520 μονάδων. Επίπεδο, από όπου διέρχεται και η "neckline" του αποτυπωμένου σχηματισμού "Head & Shoulders", που έχει ήδη διαρραγεί καθοδικά, δίχως όμως, μέχρι τώρα, να έχει δώσει την απαιτούμενη επιβεβαίωση. Ο σχηματισμός αυτός συναντάτε τελευταία σε αρκετούς ευρωπαϊκούς δείκτες, προβληματίζοντας έντονα τους "Bullish" τεχνικούς αναλυτές. Επιστρέφοντας στα του δείκτη, η συνεχιζόμενη κωλυσιεργία του να πατήσει σθεναρά πάνω από τις 11400 μονάδες, θα φέρει κάθοδο προς το πρώτο βραχυχρόνιο σημείο στήριξης των 11238 μονάδων.

Ο κλάδος των Ευρωπαϊκών Αυτοκινητοβιομηχανιών, με τους επαπειλούμενους Αμερικανικούς δασμούς, αποτελεί από το Καλοκαίρι την "Αχίλλειο πτέρνα" στους "Buyers" με τον ενδεικτικό DJ Stoxx 600 Auto να αφαιρεί πόντους, σπρώχνοντας συνεχώς καθοδικά μέσω του εν εξελίξει πτωτικού καναλιού. Εδώ το πρώτο σημείο σοβαρής στήριξης εντοπίζεται 6% χαμηλότερα, στις 450 μονάδες αναδύοντας έτσι τη σοβαρότητα του όλου θέματος. Ανοδική διάσπαση του καναλιού θα επιφέρει έντονη αλλαγή και στους μεγάλους Ευρωπαϊκούς δείκτες, καθώς θα δημιουργήσει στροφέα αλλαγής τάσης.

Η διατήρηση του άτμητου των 2624 μονάδων έδωσε την ευκαιρία στον S & P 500, μέσω και των δηλώσεων του Jerome Powell, να υπερφαλαγγίσει την περιοχή αντίστασης των 2682 μονάδων και να κινηθεί βίαια προς το επόμενο σημαίνον επίπεδο αντίστασης των 2750 με 2762 μονάδων. Επίπεδο όμως, που θα χρειαστεί κάτι παραπάνω για να ανοίξει τις ανοδικές πύλες για το όριο των 2800 μονάδων. Εδώ το τεχνικό ενδιαφέρον θα εστιαστεί σε ένα πιθανό πτωτικό "retest" των 2710 μονάδων.

Για το τέλος αφήσαμε τον δείκτη Nasdaq 100, με το ανά 3 μέρες (3D) διάγραμμά του να εμφανίζει μία αέναη προσπάθεια να ξεφύγει από την πολύ σημαντική περιοχή στήριξης των 6450 μονάδων. Μάλιστα τη τελευταία φορά, ναι μεν διέφυγε από αυτή γράφοντας νέα ιστορικά υψηλά, 7700 στις μονάδες, αλλά από τον Οκτώβριο και έπειτα ξαναγύρισε με "πάταγο" πάνω της, γράφοντας ένα επιβλητικό -16%. Τα διαγραμματικά αυτά στοιχεία προκαλούν φθορά στην εν λόγω στήριξη, με πιθανό αποτέλεσμα την καθοδική της λύση και τη κίνηση του δείκτη χαμηλότερα των 6000 μονάδων. Αρνητική είναι και η ένδειξη του δείκτη Σχετικής Δύναμης (RSI), όπου μετά από μεγάλο χρονικό διάστημα, σχεδόν από τα τέλη του 2016 λαμβάνει τιμές χαμηλότερα του μέσου των 50 μονάδων.

Επιστροφή στο ΧΑ

Σύμφωνα με το ρεπορτάζ της Έλενας Λάσκαρη, "οι ληξιπρόθεσμες υποχρεώσεις Ιδιωτών προς το Κράτος σημείωσαν εκρηκτική αύξηση τον Σεπτέμβριο. Από τα στοιχεία της ΑΑΔΕ προκύπτει ότι από τον Αύγουστο στον Σεπτέμβρη, οι Φορολογούμενοι με ληξιπρόθεσμα χρέη αυξήθηκαν από τα 3,801,967, σε 4,312,395. Τα στοιχεία δείχνουν ότι τα & # 39; φρέσκα & # 39; ληξιπρόθεσμα χρέη από 6.4 δισ. ευρώ που ήταν στα τέλη Αυγούστου, εκτινάχθηκαν στα 7,8 δισ. ευρώ στα τέλη Σεπτεμβρίου, με τα συνολικά χρέη των Φορολογούμενων να φθάνουν στα 103,09 δισ. ευρώ, ενώ εάν προστεθούν και τα πρόστιμα και οι προσαυξήσεις ξεπερνούν τα 185 δισ. ευρώ, υπερβαίνουν, δηλαδή, το ΑΕΠ της Χώρας ".

Επιστρέφοντας στο Χ.Α., ο Γενικός Δείκτης κινήθηκε μόνιμα με θετικό πρόσημο αναρριχόμενος μέχρι τις 620.28 μονάδες (+ 2.85%). Στις 17.00 βρέθηκε στις 619.11 (+ 2.65%) και μέσω των τελικών δημοπρασιών, ολοκλήρωσε την συνεδρίαση στις 618.16 μονάδες, με ημερήσια κέρδη 2.50%.

Ο τζίρος ανέβηκε στα 61,4 εκατ., από τα οποία τα 11,6 εκατ. αφορούσαν προσυμφωνημένες συναλλαγές (ΜΥΤΙΛ, ΕΥΡΩΒ, ΟΠΑΠ, ΕΤΕ, ΠΕΙΡ, ΟΤΕ), ενώ ΕΥΡΩΒ, ΕΤΕ, ΜΥΤΙΛ και ΓΡΙΒ απέσπασαν το 56% της συνολικής μικτής αξίας συναλλαγών.

Από τις μετοχές της υψηλής κεφαλαιοποίησης και όπως προαναφέρθηκε, ο ΣΑΡ δεν ήλθε σε επαφή με το θετικό πρόσημο. Δεν "κοκκίνισαν" καθ όλη την διάρκεια της συνεδρίασης οι ΑΛΦΑ, ΕΤΕ, ΕΥΡΩΒ, ΠΕΙΡ, ΓΡΙΒ, ΕΛΠΕ, ΕΧΑΕ, ΛΑΜΔΑ, ΦΡΛΚ.

Μέσω των τελικών δημοπρασιών, στο υψηλό ημέρας έκλεισαν οι ΟΛΠ, Σαράντης και Jumbo.

Ικανοποιητική η τελική εικόνα με 69 ανοδικές μετοχές, έναντι 35 πτωτικών, ενώ 15 τίτλοι ολοκλήρωσαν την συνεδρίαση με κέρδη μεγαλύτερα του 7%.