Growing share of coronavirus tests coming back positive in Texas fuels fears of another wave

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With less than half of Texans vaccinated and the highly contagious delta variant of the coronavirus spreading, the percentage of COVID-19 tests coming back positive in the state has reached an unprecedented rate since the winter.

As of this weekend, Texas’ positivity rate has been above 10% – a level Governor Greg Abbott and the Trump administration identified as a red flag earlier in the pandemic. Meanwhile, the number of new daily confirmed cases and hospitalizations are increasing rapidly, but are well below their winter peaks.

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On Saturday, the seven-day average of new confirmed cases in the state was 2,119. That’s nearly triple the average on the first day of the month, when it was 757. Meanwhile, the number of people hospitalized with the coronavirus in the state fell from 1,591 on July 1 to 2,834 on Friday.

More than 14,200 people with COVID-19 were hospitalized on January 11 – the highest number of pandemic hospitalizations in Texas to date.

But the positivity rate stands out among the rising numbers as experts see it as a leading indicator.

“The first signs are similar. They’re all there, ”said Benjamin Neuman, virologist and professor at Texas A&M University. “Epidemiologists are reading positivity statistics from tests like low tide, and it looks like we’re in for a big wave.”

In the past seven days, approximately 144,000 molecular tests, such as nasal or throat swab tests, have been administered in Texas, and 10.2% of them came back positive, according to the Department of Health Services. Texas State Health. The last time the state’s positivity rate was above 10% was in February, and the rate hit an all-time low of 2.8% in mid-June.

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The positivity rate does not clearly measure the prevalence of the virus in the state, as it depends on the number of tests administered, Neuman said, but “what it indicates is that we are missing a lot of cases.”

“Ten percent of the state is uninfected right now,” he continued. “But 10% of people sniffing have COVID, which means we’re at the start of something like another wave. We have seen the numbers increase in the rest of the United States and Texas has fallen a bit behind, but it looks like we can catch up quickly. “

It comes as the highly contagious delta variant has become the most prevalent version of COVID-19 in the country, which – with relaxed preventive precautions – Neuman cites as the reason for the increased positivity rate.

“It shows how far we are from ending it,” he said. “It’s an indication of how far ahead the virus is in this race, relative to what we understand about what the virus is doing. The virus is circling around us right now. “

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Public health experts have sounded the alarm bells about the delta variant in recent weeks, especially in places like Texas where vaccination rates are low. About 43% of Texans are currently fully vaccinated.

Vaccines have been shown to be very effective in preventing new cases of coronavirus, although there have been a few rare cases of breakthrough infections – which Dr John Carlo, CEO of Prism Health North Texas and president of AIDS Arms Physicians, said. explained is when someone who is fully vaccinated contracts the virus anyway.

“The reason this is happening more and more is that if we still have unvaccinated people circulating with those who are vaccinated, it still poses a risk of breakthrough infections, even if the risk is minimized,” said Carlo.

Evidence also suggests that the small number of people vaccinated but infected tend to face less severe versions of the disease.

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“The good news is that while we are seeing breakthrough infections, these are only mild cases,” Carlo said. “Vaccines show great protection but we knew it was never going to be perfect, it’s not 100%. And the great thing to know is that the vaccine eliminates the high risk of serious symptoms if you contract the virus. “

In a statement, the DSHS said the delta variant “has a significant effect on unvaccinated people, leading to an increase in the number of new cases and hospitalizations.” Texas officials have not indicated how many new cases are among those vaccinated and unvaccinated, but national and local health officials say the most severe impacts appear to be largely among the unvaccinated.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention director Rochelle Walensky said this month that preliminary data from several states over the past six months suggests that 99.5% of deaths from COVID-19 have occurred among non vaccinated. National hospital chain HCA Healthcare Inc., which has more than 40 hospitals in Texas, told the Wall Street Journal that less than 1% of its COVID-19 patients are fully vaccinated.

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Recent figures have led some local officials to call for further restrictions to prevent the spread. Last week, Travis County officials warned that the average number of new daily cases had tripled and asked unvaccinated residents to avoid gatherings, travel and dining out, and to mask themselves when leave their homes.

But city and county leaders can only urge residents to follow those guidelines, as Abbott has limited their power to impose local restrictions. Abbott lifted the state’s mask mandate and trade restrictions in March.

A year ago, Abbott identified the positivity rate as a measure he would follow to determine if further restrictions were needed. But later in the pandemic, he focused more on hospital capacity, creating a system where restrictions intensified if more than 15% of a region’s hospital beds were occupied by COVID-19 patients. No region is now approaching that metric, and COVID-19 patients occupied 4.3% of total hospital beds on July 16.

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Yet many experts remain focused on vaccinations above all else. Reducing the number of people the virus could infect is the only way to slow its spread, Neuman said.

“The virus is just going to grow because it’s the only thing it can do,” Neuman said. “And as humans we have more options on how we can react, and that’s really our only advantage over things like viruses and bacteria. We can see, plan and react, and when we give up the only advantage we have, then we are really at the mercy of viruses. “

Disclosure: Prism Health North Texas and Texas A&M University financially supported The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, non-partisan news organization funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial support plays no role in the journalism of the Tribune. Find a complete list of them here.

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