Has San Francisco hit its COVID peak?

“This trend is promising, but it’s too early to know for sure, so we just can’t let our guard down,” Colfax said. “Our current count per 100,000 is way higher than our summer surge when we peaked at just 15.4, but we’re still doing better than California as a whole where the average is 100.9 per 100,000.” (Note: According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the rate per 100,000 population in California was 90.3 as of January 20.)

The increase in hospitalizations after the holidays is starting to decline “barely”, with the weekly change in the hospitalization rate declining by 1%, Colfax said.

“This rate of change is important because it reflects the demand placed on our hospitals for acute care and intensive care beds to treat COVID-19 and other patients,” he noted. “Again, this is promising and encouraging news.”

As cases finally begin to decline slightly and vaccine distribution slowly increases, some may wonder: Has San Francisco reached its peak?

“I think the answer is yes,” said UCSF epidemiologist Dr George Rutherford. “We have seen the positivity rate start to go down. We have seen the cases start to go down. We are seeing the hospitalizations go down. We will start to see the ICU admissions go down, then we’ll see the deaths go down. So I say yes. , probably. I think we’re going downhill. “

Rutherford said it cautiously, noting that the numbers can easily rise if people stop wearing masks and social distancing. “You have to be careful,” he warned. “He could bounce back.”

Health officials are in a race against time, not only as patients continue to get sick and die, but the virus mutates into forms that can spread much more easily.

An L452R variant has been found in at least a dozen counties and has been identified in several large outbreaks in Santa Clara, San Francisco, and Monterey counties.

Rutherford believes the new variants are unlikely to cause a major surge in San Francisco if people wear their face masks, band together and follow public health guidelines.

“What causes epidemics are people who don’t wear masks and who don’t socially distance themselves and find themselves in situations of overcrowding,” he said. “If it’s one strain or another, they all cause epidemics. Some can transmit more than others, but ultimately it’s all behavioral.”

UCSF Infectious Disease Doctor Dr. Peter Chin-Hong agreed the numbers were slightly down, but hesitant to say SF is at its all-time high; Chin-Hong is concerned about the L452R variant, which is increasingly identified in cases.

“This rate of increase makes me fear that this is again the British variant,” Chin-Hong said. “It becomes a bigger part of the genotypic scene. It suggests that it is taking over COVID.”

He said he was also concerned that people would become less vigilant in complying with public health orders. “Just when the weather is hot and the hope of the vaccine is here, I fear we will slack off,” Chin-Hong said, noting that people will still have to wear masks after being vaccinated. “Until there is consistency in the numbers, I cannot say for sure that we have reached the top.”

Across California, infection indicators “are all showing trends in the right direction,” Health and Human Services Secretary of State Dr. Mark Ghaly said. There was fear of a wave after Christmas and New Years in addition to the wave after Halloween and Thanksgiving that drove the case levels and hospitalizations to record levels.

Just a few weeks ago, there were concerns that some hospitals in Los Angeles and other hard-hit areas might be forced to start rationing care because they lacked surge capacity as regular beds were full.

But statewide hospitalizations are down 8.5% over 14 days, with the number of intensive care patients also declining. Hospitals that received 3,500 new patients each day are now registering 2,500 to 2,900 admissions per day – still woefully high, but “a pretty significant reduction,” Ghaly said.

Statewide positivity for the virus has fallen below 10% for the first time in weeks, and each infected individual is now infecting less than one other person – a recipe for a possible decline in cases.

“These are rays of hope that shine,” Ghaly said.

The deaths, however, continue at a frightening rate. More than 6,700 people have died in the past two weeks. In Los Angeles County, so many people have died that the Air Quality Board has temporarily changed its rules to allow more cremations.

While these numbers are all promising, vaccine distribution has been daunting.

So far, 3.2 million doses have been shipped to California and 1.5 million have been administered, Ghaly said. This exceeds Gov. Gavin Newsom’s goal of getting 1 million more shots over a 10-day period, but Ghaly couldn’t say whether the state had met the deadline Newsom imposed on Friday for the do, citing late reports.

The delay in administering the remaining 1.7 million doses may be due to the fact that some have not yet arrived in the state, and some have been reserved for those in need of second doses or for vaccination sites of mass, he said.

The SF public health department said it was likely to run out of vaccine on Thursday, in part because the state withdrew from administering a batch of Moderna vaccine after several officers from San Diego health have had a bad reaction.

The county health department received 12,000 doses last week and expected the same amount this week, but only received 1,775.

“This unreliable source makes planning very difficult,” Colfax said.

Chin-Hong is hoping vaccine distribution will ramp up in the coming weeks as President Joe Biden implements his vaccine plan to increase supply.

“I think with a new administration it will clarify the issues and maybe put some money behind,” he said. “You can’t do this overnight. Public health has been underfunded for many years. You can’t just shoot a movie without getting the actors and sets ready and getting everyone to practice. . I think it reflects the lack of a health system. I think people have been disappointed. I hope everything will be better. “”

The Associated Press contributed to this story.