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Thanksgiving plans have been complicated by the coronavirus pandemic, but how worried should you be? A tool aims to give an answer.
The COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool, a project led by Professors Joshua Weitz and Clio Andris at the Georgia Institute of Technology, aims to show the risk of COVID-19 being present at a gathering given its size and of its location.
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For example, if you plan to attend a Thanksgiving rally of 10 people in Passaic County, the chance that someone has COVID-19 is currently around 18%, the tool is calculating. It is the highest in New Jersey.
On the other hand, you would be safer in Sussex County, where the probability is around 6%.
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If you’re determined to have the same type of family party as usual, with 25 attendees, the odds obviously increase. This time around, a rally in Passaic County is likely to include the coronavirus at around 40%, while in Cape May it is 13%.
But you are heading out of state, you say?
Well, a gathering of 10 people in New York City has a 7% chance of having someone with the coronavirus, and there is an 11% chance in the Empire State as a whole. In Philadelphia and Pennsylvania in general, the risk is 17%. Delaware is 15% and Connecticut is 22%.
If you’re looking for the least amount of risk, there’s Vermont (4%), or better yet, Hawaii (5%).
Or maybe just cut your veils this year, given the outbreak and travel advisories that could quarantine you for 14 days after you return to New Jersey. Gov. Phil Murphy encouraged residents to cut back on Thanksgiving plans by staying at home and hosting smaller dinners with immediate family members only.
One way to tone things down would be to enjoy the holiday meal outside, even if the weather will allow it, it’s a guess. Another way would be to quarantine all participants for 14 days in advance, in which case I hope you have spent the last two days inside.
Keep in mind that with booming cases in New Jersey and the United States, risk calculations could increase over the next two weeks as the holidays approach. In six of the past eight days, the NJ announced more than 3,000 new cases, including 4,395 new cases on Saturday, a record number.
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Nick Devlin is a reporter in the Data and Investigations team. It can be reached at [email protected].
Journalist Riley Yates contributed to this report.
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