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Thursday night marks the return of the goals of the NBA, with teams entering the homestretch of their season. Some are fighting for their lives in series, while others will try to avoid a late collapse. And for a handful of other people, playing basketball again seems to be a good thing, if only to divert the conversation from the turmoil that could occur off the field.
In this spirit, we analyzed five of the league's most interesting scenarios as we prepare to dive into the second half of the season.
What will happen with the Celtics?
Even after the Raptors had Kawhi Leonard and the Sixers, Jimmy Butler, the Celtics had high expectations this season. As a club that played in Game 7 of the final phase of the conference without Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward, going back to at least this stage with the health of both seemed almost taken for granted.
However, move ahead quickly and it is clear that there is no guarantee that they will go that far. The Bucks have joined the elite league. The Sixers did everything. Raptors are solid on both sides.
The problem is that Irving, a future free agent, is no longer willing to make a long-term commitment to being a Celtic – a situation in which journalists and fans are bending every time. interviews. (Irving's exit would make it more difficult for the team to prompt Anthony Davis to stay in Boston in the long run if the Celtics rolled the dice and traded against him.)
No, Jaylen Brown was not as impressive as in his second year. And Al Horford, a loyal defender from previous years, has not been that good this season.
Nevertheless, Hayward, whose mental blocks this season had prevented him from resembling himself, has shown positive signs lately. And most importantly, the Celtics – despite all their difficulties early in the season – remain in the top 10 both in attack and defense, which usually means a real competitor.
It is essential to know if they can hold this level of promise because of the way in which their composition could change dramatically this summer, for better or for worse.
Can rebuilding the Bulls be a project for a team like the Hawks?
The Bulls season was far from excellent. They fired their coach early and saw the players thwart their first replacement. But the club has made progress in recent weeks since the negotiation of winger Otto Porter, who seems to manage well at the end with players like Zach LaVine and Lauri Markkanen.
Some fans did not like the move, as Porter's heavy contract almost eliminated the Bulls from the race for a top-level free agent this summer. But it is useful to acquire solid players that can complement your new core. The best evidence up to now: the Bulls have recorded a net score of 14 – which means that they outsell opponents by 14 points per 100 possessions – in 110 minutes that Porter, LaVine and Markkanen have shared on the terrain up to now. Not too bad for a club that was beaten 8.5 points per 100 games over the year.
The first comebacks from Chicago could serve as a model for rebuilding the Hawks, who have budding young talents at John Collins, Trae Young and Kevin Huerter. The youngsters had their moments of offensive brilliance, but the trio, challenged defensively to say it nicely, was outclassed by 5.6 points for 100 possessions.
Finding veterans who can consistently defend at a high level to play alongside them, and develop these three players in position D, will help a lot in determining when and if Atlanta can reverse the situation.
MVP race could fall on the wire
Making sense of this year's MVP race has been a challenge. Just when Giannis Antetokounmpo seemed to be the undisputed leader of the trophy, given the impressive numbers he had won for the team with the best record in the sport, James Harden broke out as a Kool-Aid Man, it's imposing in conversation with a series of historical scores.
There are a few other players, like Joel Embiid of Philadelphia and Paul George of Oklahoma City, whose outstanding play also deserves attention. But it will probably be a two-man race.
Harden's offensive dominance over the last two months has changed the narrative that promised to be a leap forward for Antetokounmpo. However, it is worth checking whether a certain level of voter fatigue (Harden won the award last year, while Antetokounmpo was never a harbinger before) comes into play. And there are those who do not. Not like Harden's iso-heavy style, even though he had little choice but to pride himself, considering the injuries suffered by his team.
It is not surprising that Antetokounmpo is finally recognized, especially if the Bucks finish first.
LeBron can the Lakers in the playoffs?
It would be shocking to see the excellent LeBron James move from the NBA Finals eight straight years to not even participate in the playoffs in his first season in the West. But it's more than just a possibility at this point: FiveThirtyEight's projection model currently predicts that the Lakers have only a 26% chance of reaching the playoffs.
We would not be surprised at all if James could put the Lakers on the line of playoffs. Aside from its own individual size, the Lakers are completing a difficult stage of their calendar this month, with seven of their nine games toppling on the road. Their fortunes seem to improve when the calendar will turn to March.
The biggest question is whether it's worth it in the end for James to move up a gear simply to rank 8th and in the first round with the two-time defending champion Warriors. As illustrated by his injury five weeks earlier in the season, James does not look younger. And while it is almost certain that he will not let go of the foot of the pedal Due to the position of the Lakers in the standings, it can be said that his energy would be better used next season, once L.A. will have another leading player to play with him.
Will Denver become the main challenger for Golden State in the West?
Denver has been near the top of the standings all year, while clubs like Thunder and the Rockets started slowly before heading back to compete for the home advantage in the first round.
The Nuggets apparently deserve the benefit of the doubt in this discussion. In addition to leading the conference standings earlier in the season, they still have the best record in the West for quality competition – even slightly better than the Warriors against teams of 500 or better. Their defense has not been as good as it was at the start of the season, but they still have enough balance – in their first and second units – to get the job done. And after Golden State, Denver is basically neck and neck with Oklahoma City ranked neat in the West.
If anything lets us pause about the Nuggets, it's their lack of playoff experience. It's rare for a team that did not play in the playoffs to win, which could explain why our model feels better against a team like Houston, Oklahoma City or even Utah.
But the beauty of all this, of course, is that Denver – having been eliminated in the last game of the regular season in 2018 – will have the chance to stand out in these last 25 games.
Discover our latest NBA forecast.
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