Here's how the battle for Trump's tax returns could unfold

President Donald Trump's lawyer said Friday that the Internal Revenue Service is expected to reject a request from the Democratic Chair of the House Tax Drafting Committee to produce the president's tax returns.

"If the IRS acquiesced at the request of President Neal, it would create a dangerous precedent," said William Consovoy in a letter to Treasury Department General Counsel Brent McIntosh. "Once this Pandora's box is opened, the resulting damage will inflict lasting damage to our country."

The president said that he thought "the law is 100% on my side".

But is it?

Steve Rosenthal, Principal Investigator at the Urban-Brookings Non-Partisan Tax Policy Center and Tax Lawyer with 25 years of experience, said the law was opposed to the President and in favor of the Speaker of the House Committee of Representatives, Richard Neal, D-Masse.

For Mnuchin to simply say "No," I am sure he would say that he is there to protect the privacy of every American, but that is B.S.

According to Section 6103 (f) of the Federal Tax Code, an obscure provision dating back nearly 100 years and cited by Neal in his application, the Secretary of the Treasury "will provide to this committee any return or return information specified in this application" .

Rosenthal said the law could not be clearer.

"As a lawyer, it's a pretty easy question to plead," he said. "President Neal has the power to obtain this information through this provision, which unambiguously uses the word" must "."

The key question, Rosenthal added, is whether Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has a legal basis to deny Neal's claim.

"I think the strategy of the administration," continued Rosenthal, "is to exceed the time allotted to try to pass the elections, but the question is whether there is a legitimate legal basis to which resist, and how long will the legal process last? "

"For Mnuchin to simply say" No, "I'm sure he would say that he's there to protect the privacy of every American, but that's B.S.," Rosenthal said. "The Congress is here to oversee the executive branch, and President Trump is the most important player in the executive branch."

The goal is to oversee the IRS and ensure that the IRS ensures that the rules are applied fairly, including the president.

The very purpose of the tax code provision that Neal wants to exercise was written with the express purpose of overseeing executive power, following the scandal of the 1920s dome theater, Rosenthal said. "If you look at the legislative context to find out why this law exists, and why Neal wants it, there is no credible argument to refute the claim."

But although this provision has been in law books for nearly a hundred years, Neal's claim is in unknown territory. There is no precedent in which the Ways and Means Committee has ever used this provision to request the President's tax returns, even though Rosenthal believes Neal's claim is legitimate.

Trump also broke with modern practice by not voluntarily returning his tax returns as a candidate. Since the 2016 campaign, Trump systematically invoked a continuous audit to not make his statements public.

The president's lawyer detailed in his letter to the IRS the reason for the invalidation of Neal's application, stating inter alia that these claims "must have a legitimate legislative purpose" and "must be related to a legitimate task of Congress ".

But Rosenthal retorted that Congressional control over the executive power is, in his opinion, a legitimate legislative justification in this case.

"The supervision of the IRS is the most essential function of the Ways and Means Committee," said Rosenthal. "The goal is to supervise the IRS and ensure that the IRS applies the rules fairly, including the president.Has the president is above the law or is he audited? equitably, as would any other American? "

Neal, in his letter requesting the President's statements, pleaded his case by saying that the Committee "reviews legislative proposals and exercises oversight in relation to our federal tax laws, including, but not limited to, how far the IRS verifies and enforces federal tax laws against a president. "

But the president's attorney, in his letter to the IRS, says Neal has an ulterior motive.

"His request is a transparent effort by a political party to harass a leader of the other party because he does not like his politics and his speech," wrote Consovoy.

The president made a similar argument Friday in his remarks to reporters.

"I was elected.They elected me, and now they continue.I'm under audit.When you are on audit, you do not do it.Other people are under audit, nobody would not do it when you're going through audit, and I'm still under audit, they're controlling me all the time, "Trump said after his lawyer's statement.

Aside from the legal arguments, the chart is now ready for the expected scenario that the Treasury Department will refuse to comply with Neal's request, after which Neal will have to issue a subpoena to compel the Treasury Department to hand over statements.

If the Treasury refuses again, a legal battle would almost certainly follow, probably going as far as the Supreme Court.

Another plan for Neal, said Rosenthal, would be that the House could potentially vote for Steven Mnuchin, who oversees the IRS as Treasury Secretary, to be held in contempt of Congress.

If Neal finally succeeds in obtaining the president's tax returns, it is conceivable that these statements will eventually be made public.

Although Neal is initially required to keep the statements confidential, the Ways and Means Committee could vote to share the information in open session. If this vote is successful, which is probably the case for the parties, the results could be made public.

The White House declined to comment on this report. The Treasury Department has not responded to a request for comment.