Here’s how the Tilray, Sundial, and other pot stocks stack up

While marijuana stocks have often traded in tandem when motivated by sentiment, many of these stocks have had varying degrees of success. Some investors are turning to exchange traded funds to bet on a larger basket of pot stocks. The

ETFMG Alternative Harvest ETF

(MJ), which has exposure to marijuana companies, was down 24% on Thursday, coming back close to early week levels. But this ETF does not include US multi-state operators, or MSOs, which must be listed over the counter in the US because they are selling a product where it is federally illegal. The

Advisorshares Pure Cannabis ETF

(YOLO) includes US MSOs.

Here are some of the biggest individual stocks and what analysts are predicting. This is not an exhaustive list, as there are over a hundred public actions with links to the cannabis industry.

Tilray (TLRY) and Aphria (APHA)

Tilray

and Aphria announced a merger in December. Aphria CEO Irwin Simon expects the deal to be reached in the first half of this year. An investor would receive approximately 0.84 shares of the combined Tilray for each share of Aphria they owned. Aphria has a recent market cap of $ 8.3 billion, compared to Tilray’s $ 10.1 billion.

Tilray entered the year with high short interest at around 48% of the shares available for trading, according to data from S3 Partners. It’s down to 23% recently. Aphria’s short interest is around 7.4% of shares available for trading, up from 16% at the start of the year. When investors sell a stock short, they sell a borrowed stock in the hope that they can return it by buying the stock at a lower price. When a mass of short sellers rush to hedge and avoid further losses, it can push stocks higher.

For Aphria, analysts expect the company to end fiscal 2021 in May with annual revenue of $ 534.8 million. They expect sales to reach $ 710.3 million in fiscal 2022. On the other hand, Tilray ended its last fiscal year in December. Analysts expect the company to report full-year revenue of $ 208 million, reaching $ 277.8 million in the current year. Of course, the merger will hurt all high-profile estimates.

The average analyst rating on Tilray is an expectation, according to FactSet, although the average price target is only $ 12.20. The average rating on Aphria is overweight, but the average price target is $ 12.60.

Producers of sundials (SNDL)

The sundial, which once traded above $ 11, has fallen to penny stock status. In February of last year, the core management team resigned. The company has had issues including half a ton of cannabis that a customer rejects due to poor quality, MarketWatch reported. Earlier this month, Sundial announced a capital increase that lowered stocks.

The stock rebounded this month amid interest from retail traders, it is up 403% year-to-date. Its market value is $ 4.3 billion after Thursday’s decline. Analysts expect sales to reach $ 53.1 million for the year 2020. Consensus estimates call for $ 62.6 million in 2021.

Cannabis Aurora (ACB)

Cannabis Aurora

was previously one of the most owned shares on Robinhood. But the company struggled for several quarters to achieve positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization. A new chief executive and significant cost cuts helped, but that didn’t convince analysts. None of the 17 analysts listed by FactSet received a buy rating, while four analysts recently rated it sell. The average target price of $ 9.07 is below recent levels.

The company has a market capitalization of $ 3.7 billion. Analysts do not expect a profitable financial year in the next few years. The consensus estimate calls for a net loss of $ 1.16 per share for the fiscal year ending June, according to FactSet. In terms of sales, analysts predict the company will reach $ 227.4 million in fiscal 2021, which ends in June. They expect sales to increase to $ 303.3 million in fiscal 2022.

Canopy Growth (CGC)

Canopy growth

has a recent market cap of $ 19.7 billion. Brewer

Constellation marks

(STZ) owns a majority stake in Canopy. The producer also struck a deal with Acreage Holdings that would allow it to enter the U.S. cannabis market, but the merger itself is triggered by regulatory changes that would allow it to do so.

The company has a market value of approximately $ 19.7 billion. Analysts expect sales of $ 441.4 million for fiscal 2021, which ends in March. They predict that amount will reach $ 639.9 million in fiscal year 2022.

Cronos Group (CRON)

Cronos Group

was one of the few profitable Canadian cannabis companies in 2019, and investors expect this to continue into 2020, with estimates calling for earnings of 3 cents per share. But consensus estimates project a net loss of 24 cents per share in fiscal 2021.

The company received $ 1.8 billion from the tobacco giant

Altria Group

(MO) in 2018 for a 45% stake. Unlike its competitors, the company has been conservative with its war chest. He still had $ 1.3 billion in cash and short-term investments at the end of September. On the flip side, analysts predict sales to only hit $ 43.8 million in 2020 and expect that figure to hit $ 86.9 million in 2021.

US multi-state operators

While the recent rush to pot stocks was spurred by a shift in political wind in the United States, the growers selling marijuana there have actually lagged behind their Canadian peers in recent months. Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Pablo Zuanic said Barron’s he believes that “America’s top MSOs are attractively valued from a long-term perspective, even though they will benefit from some of the Canadian top-down draw.

Big American names include

Curaleaf Fund

(CURLF),

Green thumb industries

(GTBIF),

Cresco Laboratories

(CRLBF), and

Cannabis Trulieve

(TCNNF). Zuanic has an overweight rating on these stocks, while it is neutral on most of the big names in Canada. It projects US cannabis market sales of $ 22.1 billion in 2021, $ 28 billion in 2022 and $ 49 billion by 2025.

Write to Connor Smith at [email protected]