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The Sino-US trade war began on Friday and the United States imposed duties on the first batch of Chinese goods worth $ 34 billion Friday, according to President Trump. It is also possible to tax a total of $ 200 billion and $ 300 billion of goods in lots. If the trade war intensifies, Washington could eventually "cut the knife" to Chinese goods valued at 550 billion US dollars (about 4.29 billion US dollars), the equivalent of the total value of Chinese exports to the United States last year.
China has already threatened to retaliate with the same tax rate, namely to impose a tariff of 25% on US imports of about 50 billion US dollars (about 390 billion dollars Hong Kong), of which about 34 billion are synchronized on 6 July. Implemented The outside world considers the continued depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar as one of the counter-strike strategies, but the role this movement can play in the trade war remains to be seen. The official media, the Xinhua News Agency and the People's Daily as well as other Friday criticized the United States for advocating economic aggression, protectionism against floods and the mentality of the Cold War.
Barton Biggs, badyst of Wallfather on Wall Street, discusses in the book Wealth, War and Wisdom: The stock trend dominated by collective intelligence can effectively predict the outcome of the battle. If this is true, in the current Sino-US trade war, the continental stock market has declined several times, and the US stock market is still firm. Shareholders have already voted for a vote. It goes without saying that the former has the top. ETF capital flows also reflect investors moving closer to the United States: at the end of June, the cumulative net inflow of US equities over the last 10 weeks was 29.2. billion dollars and the non-US stock market took 222. In the US $ 100 million, emerging market cash outflows continued to deteriorate.
Since the beginning of the trade war, the impact of future development on global economic growth and even on inflation will greatly affect the sentiment of the market. According to the last minutes of the June meeting, most members believe that the risks badociated with US trade policies have intensified and that the situation is worrying: the business sector has notably suspended its investments because of tariff concerns and spending. in capital started to decline. Will the financial market repeat the situation after the break-up of the 2015 "Big Times", that is, Hong Kong and other emerging markets will be hit first and shares Americans will eventually escape? The Hong Kong indexes sandwiched between China and the United States turned into a reversal of the trend: the Hang Seng index fell by 28,000 points and reached 27,925 points after the official "war" of noon . Down and up, up to 372 points, up to see 28,544 points, but then weaken again, closing at 28,315 points, 133 points (0.47%), the figure of business of the board of directors increased to 98.49 billion yuan.
Last week, the Hang Seng index has competed at 28,000 points, as shown in the column of the previous week, starting point of the sharp rise in the Hang Seng end 2017 and the the first place of Zhongmu District in 2017. From the point of view of technical trends, the Hang Seng index has the opportunity to test 27 700 points (the cumulative growth rate of gold ratio of 38.2 % from early 2016 to early 2018), as shown in the figure, very close to the bottom of the transaction. By extending the support position of the trend line, the Hang Seng index is expected to have a strong bearing capacity of 27500 to 27700.
It should be noted that although the current Hong Kong stock index shows an extreme overselling, the average market (price of the stock above 50 antennas) has fallen to less than 20%, but oversold is not a signal of purchase. The extent to which it is sold is more likely to rebound, waiting for the market to give an answer.
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