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Not too many surprises, the US Trump Administration has added a 25% tariff to the $ 34 billion worth of CCP goods in time on July 5th, local time. The Chinese product of $ 16 billion with a tariff of 25% will be confirmed in the next two weeks. Beijing has followed the same retaliatory measures, which impose the same tariff on American goods of the same value. The Sino-US trade war was officially launched, and before the opening of the game, the defeat of Beijing has already manifested.
beat one: the Chinese stock market fell again. The eve of the start of the Sino-US trade war, the Chinese stock market fell again: the Shenzhen component index reached a new low of 8,844 points, falling below the 8986 level to the end of January 2016. Not to mention the GEM, the stock market collapsed at the end of 1779 points, and the bottom of the fuse was at 1900 points.
And before the first trading day of A shares in July, there was a power outage. According to the news of the mainland financial sector on July 2, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped to its lowest level in two years and the SSE 50 index fell nearly 4%. In addition to the collective collapse of real estate stocks, the four major labor and peasant banks also fell collectively. Among them, the Industrial and Commercial Bank fell 4.51%, the Bank of China fell by 3.88%, the Agricultural Bank fell by 3.49% and the China Construction Bank fell 5.04% . The four main values of the market evaporated nearly 250 billion yuan a day.
Faced with the stock market crash, Beijing quickly established the new State Council Financial Stability Development Committee, as well as senior officials of financial and financial institutions, such as the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and the Central Propaganda Department. The Internet Information Office, the Ministry of Public Security and the Ministry of Justice also participated in the meeting, whose functions are to cooperate and cooperate, which suggests that Chinese financial risks have reached a moment critical and can no longer be solved. C & # 39; is. The governor of the central bank, Yi Gang, has also publicly stated that the international community of investors believes that the Chinese stock market has shown better results. Value of Investment
The question is how many people will believe the words of Yi Gang and Guo Shuqing? After the intervention of the two financial teams, the stock market has not stopped falling: it can be speculated that after so many years of gambling, investors no longer believe in the guarantees of the authorities . In other words, the CCP authorities are the initiators of the feeling that affects investors: investors lose confidence in such a dark market and the stock market is overwhelming. Some stock market investors have ridiculed this way: "It's only now that the stock market is inhabited, and the house is used for speculation."
How does the stock market with confidence in the Chinese financial system affect the Chinese economy? This goes without saying and the financial crisis is hidden there.
defeated two: strict control of capital outflows. In 2016, the Beijing authorities took strict control measures, resulting in a net outflow of US $ 60 billion This year, with the escalation of Sino-US trade problems, Beijing has tighter control over the capital. He Qingyi, American academic, pointed out that there are three ways to strengthen capital control in Beijing: control foreign investment of Chinese enterprises, the main way out of capital (flight of capital), and repatriate profits at the end of each year. Headquarters, the third is for Chinese domestic workers to use ants to exchange currency for US $ 50,000 a year to change currencies, increase the difficulty of trading, reduce the amount is the main method for this small stock market .
For more than a year, Beijing authorities used Ampang and Wanda to force Chinese private companies to reduce foreign investment and return capital to the country. On the other hand, artificial barriers prevent foreign companies from repatriating the profits of the parent company, which affects the confidence of foreign companies in China and diverts large amounts of foreign capital. The difficulty of changing the exchange rate of the Chinese people has given birth to more underground silver houses, and it has also deepened the perception that the Chinese are not optimistic about the Chinese economy.
The defeat of the third: the continuous depreciation of the renminbi. Before the start of the Sino-US trade war, the renminbi against the US dollar has shown a dynamic. Some badysts pointed out that it is the wish of the Beijing authorities to reduce the losses caused by the Sino-US trade war. But the fact is that the consequences of the depreciation of the renminbi are very serious, not only will accelerate capital outflows, but will also make domestic liquidity more tight, and it is very likely that this will increase the pressure on the credit market.
defeated four: a large number of foreign capital evacuation, behind is not optimistic about China's poor market environment. Since the implementation of the tax reduction policy by the Trump administration, the number of companies that have pulled out of the continent has exploded. On December 29, the New York Times published "conditional tax cuts abroad to prevent corporations from returning profits to the country. This report highlights that Beijing has tried to stop the flight of capital, the currency has strengthened last year. The audit has already sparked complaints from foreign companies doing business there, so that more companies – and perhaps individuals – have the intention of reducing losses in foreign companies. transferring funds from China. Jake Parker, vice president of Chinese affairs at the US-China Business Council, said some of its member companies have expressed their desire to bring China's profits back in the context of tax reforms, and consider prompt action to minimize the risk of controlling capital.
US, Japanese, Korean, German and other companies also accelerated their withdrawal from the Chinese market. For example, Lotte, Samsung in South Korea, Olympus in Japan, etc. According to incomplete continental media statistics, foreign-funded enterprises in Suzhou have in turn turned to Southeast Asia, including Nike, Adidas, Lianjian, Honghui, Philips, Puguang, Huaerrun, Nokia, Zixing, Seagate and so on. Many foreign companies are companies with tens of thousands of people.
In 2017, there was a hot article on the Internet in China: "You may not know the list of foreign withdrawals: 45 million people will lose their jobs." The withdrawal of foreign investment in Suzhou, where Japanese companies are concentrated, is almost catastrophic. This caused the loss of a large number of local and the rapid decline of the real estate sector.
We know that the main factors taken into account in foreign investment are costs, market risks and investment risks, the costs of labor have increased sharply and the market environment has deteriorated. The risk naturally increases.
For Beijing authorities who consider foreign investment as an economic "troika", the reduction and withdrawal of foreign investment is undoubtedly a blow to its economy, and social unrest caused by the high unemployment rate Factors are also increasing.
defeated five: the export is weak, domestic demand is not strong. In addition to investment, exports and domestic demand are the other two elements of the troika. On July 2, Chinese Customs showed that China's exports to the United States decreased by 13.9% in the first half of 2018. In June, growth was only 3.8%, down 23.8% from the same period last year. External badysis indicates that Chinese data show that the impact of trade friction on China began to appear. With the start of the trade war, China's export situation is even more severe.
Domestic demand expected by the Beijing authorities has been squeezed out of almost every other domestic consumption space due to real estate. At this time, improving domestic demand has become synonymous with # 39; real estate improvement. As a result, we have seen that while various communities have regulatory policies in place, real estate is only growing. Once the capital chain breaks, the financial crisis, the collapse of Chinese real estate is also a nod to the eye. At that time, the narrowing of ordinary people's badets with multiple properties was not unimaginable, and boosting domestic demand has become a slogan.
conquered the sixth: the hearts of lost people, people voted with their feet. Recently, the general strikes of trucks and Chinese train drivers and the protests of veterans defending their rights have shown that those who can not survive have begun to choose to resist, the authorities have not responded to the errors and n & # 39; They did not eliminate the fire of protest. In a Chinese society in crisis and in complaints, the future will never be like stagnant water.
According to the July 6 report of the Voice of America, the Hurun Research Institute and the immigration consultants who followed the wealth of the wealthy jointly released the White Paper on Investor Immigration in China. The white paper was published in the fifth year. The results of the survey on the white paper are based on 224 rich Chinese with an average wealth of 29 million yuan, they were immigration, asked for immigration and considered immigration from March to June of this year.
The survey shows that nearly 80% of wealthy Chinese have made the United States the preferred destination of immigrants, followed by Canada, Australia, and the United Kingdom. Seventy percent of respondents have badets abroad. The quality of education and environmental pollution are still the main reasons for the migration of rich Chinese, with a proportion reaching 83% and 69%, an increase of 7 and 5 percentage points respectively compared to last year. In addition, food security, medical standards, social welfare, property security and the political environment are also among the reasons for immigration.
According to the white paper, in January 2017, the number of households with tens of millions of badets in China reached 1.47 million and the number of households with billions of badets reached 99,000, respectively 9.7% and 11.6% more than the previous year. In other words, more than 700,000 rich Chinese have chosen to flee China, which has hit the Beijing authorities.
There is no doubt that the CCP authorities with so many defeats will no longer be able to throw. For the high level of Beijing, if you can not see the situation, you can not follow the trend, and the end is hard to say.
– Transferred from "The Epoch Times" This article represents only the opinions and statements of the author.
(Publisher: Li Mingxin)
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