Hang Seng Index next week or now "Death Cross" | AIMPACT

The People's Bank of China went beyond market expectations to operate a medium-term loan facility (MLF) to release 50 billion yuan. On the same day, Premier Li Keqiang proposed that active tax system is more active. Prudent monetary policy is expected to be moderate and moderate, in line with recent official remarks and measures from the mainland of mainland China, which show that the mainland's monetary policy is gradually becoming more and more evident. From the point of view of recent policy signals, the marginal easing of monetary policy is a gradual correction of the pre-tightening financial deleveraging policy in the current macroeconomic environment, but the gradual easing of policies does not mean the emergence of financial deleveraging policies. Turn.

Pedestrians suddenly released water and pushed the Chinese and Hong Kong stock markets to improve. The Hong Kong shares will host the "Death Crossing" reflecting the signal of the bear market as early as next week. At present, antennas 50 and 250 HSI are currently 100 antennas and 250 antennas HSI, which means "dead" short term. Cross. "Hong Kong stocks fell to a record low of 18,000 points in February 2016, following the last round of deaths triggered by A's violent rescue in August 2015. In July 2013 and March 2014, the shares of Hong Kong were 39; Hang Seng index also had a cross of deaths, but no major adjustment occurred.

With regard to the sector, the State Council meeting clearly indicated that the Fiscal policy should be more active and demand fast results in promoting the construction of infrastructure projects.With the introduction of the rules of the new badet management and credit operation in the medium term (MLF) of 502 billion yuan from the central bank, the situation of capital tightening will improve and the prospect of cement and building materials will become positive.

From January to June 2018, the cumulative production of cement of u country was 997 million tons, down 0.6% year on year on the other, Heilongjiang dropping 29.8%, the largest decline for three consecutive months. Zhejiang's earnings are all above 10%. According to the Cement Research Institute's prediction, cumulative cement production in the country from January to July 2018 will reach 1.193 billion tons. Affected by an increase in rains on the continent in recent days, the demand for cement has decreased, the month of July should be the off-season of cement, but as some companies have stopped production, the price of cement is relatively stable. In fact, affected by the severe environmental policy of mainland China, small factories that used the kiln were ordered to suspend production, and general cement plants had to produce peaks. Under the protection of the environment, after the decline in cement production, prices are supported at low levels. Cement companies generally expect performance growth in the first half. The mainland cement industry achieved a cumulative profit of 51.5 billion yuan in the first five months of the year, an annual increase of 117%, a record high. Currently, the price of clinker in East China has increased: clinker production in Anhui and elsewhere has limited environmental protection, the decline in local clinker production is more obvious than in the other regions and the decline in production. The Cement Conch cement faucet (914) in East China can be collected in the recall.

Mai Jiajia is a licensee of the Securities and Futures Commission and does not hold the aforementioned shares.