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Scientists and market experts, the course of random action has a broken estimate of pain, the price of real estate has momentum: a rise in the market in recent years, the market has dropped a few years. In estimating the price of the property, it is very easy to get a break from the estimate: it is estimated to rise and fall.
On August 17, 2014, Apple Daily released a report entitled 'Investment Navigation: Eight real estate market experts to follow the impulse education strategy'. Of the eight experts, only Lin Yiming was clearly rated and only Luo Jiacong was clearly rated.
According to the first, it should increase by 5% in the same year: "The real estate market has been competitive at a high level.This depends on the strong demand of the government.The second hand supply has been reduced to In addition, the government has accounted for only about 10% of speculators prior to the move and has only affected the demand of small buyers over the past two or three years. In recent years, due to the huge demand accumulated due to the rapid rise of the real estate market, the real estate market has no conditions to fall, and the latter should fall to 50%: "The price of real estate will certainly fall below the current three seasons.The real estate price is due to the fact that the Reserve Office has indicated that the interest rate would rise.The price of the Hong Kong real estate market would be the first to suffer the shock . "A year later, the index Central Plains City increased from 123.67 to 143.46, an increase of more than 10%. Today, 50% of the standard is 50%!
Two doctoral experts felt that the central argument was supply and demand, and the argument on the wrong side was interest. Thorny measures reduce second-hand supply and second-hand demand. The argument of supply and demand does not explain why the increase of 5% is imminent. In addition, the Fed began raising interest rates at the end of 2015. After two years, real estate prices continued to rise, but the statement of interests did not explain why this 50% drop had occurred.
January 6, 2016, the owner of Jiahu, Lin Tai, told the reporter "Apple": "The real estate market experts have eaten!" The drop was estimated, and his girlfriend Babe asked me not to be afraid of cockroaches, and I ended up with a PhD estimate: "The pulse is too scientific. Real estate has gone up and down.In fact, it's statistically significant, "said Babe. I answered in an expert tone: "It 's been asked me to estimate the interest, with the exception of the rate of interest of the company. 39, supply and demand, and the recent market situation.The ratio of real estate prices: the ratio is falling, and the market is talking. "
Xu Jiajian
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Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Clinson University, USA
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Http://fb.com/economics3.0/
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This column is published every Wednesday.
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