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China's second-quarter economic growth was in line with market expectations. Analysts pointed out that China's economy has remained stable as expected in the first half, but uncertainties that are unfavorable to the economy in the second half have increased significantly.
The National Bureau of Statistics announced that China's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 6.7% year-on-year on the other, in line with market forecasts, and remained stable. From 6.7% to 6.9% for 12 consecutive quarters. In the first quarter, GDP grew 6.8% from one year to the next.
In the first half of this year, China's GDP rose to 41.9 trillion yuan, up 6.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate declined by 0, 1 point compared to the same period last year. In the "Government Work Report," Premier Li Keqiang of the State Council has set the GDP growth target at 6.5 percent this year.
In the first half of the year, the value added of industrial enterprises above the indicated size increased by 6.7% year-on-year, slightly less than expected, industrial value-added in June increasing 6% year-on-year. In the first half, the national fixed investment rose by 6%, which corresponds to expectations. In the first half, total retail sales of consumer goods rose 9.4%, which is in line with expectations, but in June, it rose 9%, which was better than expected.
GDP growth in the second quarter was in line with expectations, at 6.8% in the first half of the year, but solid investment and industrial value added declined in June, consumption rebounded slightly and pressure was down on the Chinese economy remained In particular, the current international environment is more stringent, the Sino-US trade war has just begun, and uncertainties in the second half of the year against the US economy. economy have increased dramatically, and the situation may be even worse.
The center said that even though the downward pressure on the economy has not declined, the recent announcement of profits of industrial enterprises and data on tax revenues and expenditures is still good, while the economy remains relatively stable. From a regulatory point of view, the second half of the year should focus more on the expansion of domestic demand and monetary policy should be more flexible. The Bureau of Macroeconomic Research at the National Information Center said that while industrial value added declined slightly in June, mainly because of the high base of the same period last year, the growth rate of the GDP was 6.8% in the first half. On the demand side, there are signs of slowing down and fixed capital investment has slowed down, but consumption remains good and the overall economy has remained relatively stable in the first half of the year. Due to the impact of the Sino-US trade war and increasing uncertainties, the downward pressure on the economy will increase in the second half of the year and GDP growth could return to around 6 , 6% through the remediation of PPP projects and real estate investments. The second half of the year is expected to slow down and other factors, monetary policy should moderately increase flexibility, it is still possible to reduce the deposit reserve rate.
ING Group lowered China's GDP growth forecast, saying the trade war would directly affect the continent's economic growth through manufacturing and logistics. Third quarter GDP forecast is lowered to 6 , 6%; 6.7% was reduced to 6.5%.
Xue Junsheng, head of the department of economic research and chief economist of Shengsheng Bank (00011), said he maintained the forecast of 6.6% economic growth on the mainland this year. The impact of international trade disputes on the continental economy in the first half of the year is minimal, but this factor and the continent's policy of decommissioning, destocking and high-level comparison could slow down economic growth in mainland China in the second half of the year .
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