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The author sums up the research experience of nearly 30 years: there are only two points to share with you: (1) Any research is good or bad, what is the value and not the beauty and elegance of its badytical structure. Predict standard deviation (2) To make accurate predictions, the researcher must first explain the current situation before trying to predict the future.
Because if you can not understand why the situation is so unpredictable, any prediction will only add more uncertainty, overwhelming ambiguities and existing errors. The expected gap in the future is even greater. Only objective and global data can significantly reduce blind spots and directly increase the understanding of the reality and predictability of the prediction.
The recession will be resumed again or later
If the situation is examined objectively and holistically, the author understands that the people of Hong Kong are facing three critical points. Extremely important tipping point problems: (1) Most developed economies will again experience economic recession in the next 3 to 5 years; (2) Hong Kong's capacity is seriously inadequate, affecting people's lives; Lack of land has led to the issue of justice, the disparity between the rich and the poor, "private property has appreciation of Vs, and altruistic building can not share the economic results." These three issues have transcended the critical point: the damage to society and people's livelihoods can not be avoided: any political decision today can no longer prevent pain and tragedy, but there are still opportunities to reduce grievances and public anger. This chronicle has been repeatedly explained about housing issues, so today we mainly discuss two other issues:
(1) Recession of the 2008 Economic Recession Financial Tsunami, That's the World Western these past ten or twenty years The huge bubble explosion of private debt. The solution to the economic dilemma should be to fix the balance sheets of the government and the private sector and to repay the debts. But unfortunately, people in these economies are not ready to endure the chains that come with debt repayment, their way of dealing with the debt crisis is to borrow more debt! According to the International Finance Association (IIF), the total debt of developed economies rose from about 340% of GDP in 2007 before the crisis to nearly 400% in 2016! Most developed countries are still in deficit for 10 years after the financial tsunami and the aging population will increase by almost 50% in the next 10 to 20 years. Borrow is only a chance to increase.
Originally, although the prospects for the global economy were not good, Hong Kong enjoyed opportunities for structural growth in the motherland economy and needed to fend for yourself However, Hong Kong itself has faced serious problems in two major areas: it has already pbaded the critical point: the scarcity of the medical system and the disparity between rich and poor caused by the low rate of private housing!
The waiting time for consultation is too long, the life expectancy decreases
(2) The medical system is on the verge of collapse: in addition to the annual peaks of influenza visible every year and even in winter and summer, public hospitals are "hampered" and the occupancy rate of hospital beds far exceeds 100%. The situation is well above the 85% safety limit in the UK, and the number of waiting times for new specialized diseases can also clearly highlight the strong pressure on the public health care system. health. If we take as an example the Department of Internal Medicine, the median wait time for new cases is almost doubled, from 31 weeks in 2011-2012 to 57 weeks in 2016-2017! In comparison, the overall figure for Singapore is only 4 weeks! The National Health Service, which has just celebrated its 70th anniversary but is sorely lacking in money and understaffing, is also much smaller than ours, with 92% of patients waiting no more than 18 weeks.
Indeed, according to the hospital authorities in 2012, the care required for a person aged 65 and over is six times more than those under 64 years old and more than 12 times for people aged 85 and over. more; In 2016, in just 5 years, the numbers have indeed deteriorated by at least 50% to 9 times and 20 times! The numbers also reflect the aging process of our seniors, which makes the health situation so bad in no time! We need to promote "preventative care" and strengthen the health awareness of the elderly population, including the establishment of the "community center for active aging" in the government's special platform to keep older people healthy and active. To slow down aging. Otherwise, Hong Kong may embark on the road to the United States, where life expectancy has fallen for two consecutive years: the health of the population and the level of medical care are deteriorating!
Of course, we also urgently need to enter the medical staff to meet urgent needs. By returning the newspapers, we always hear the news of medical accidents! The violation of the seal of gauze by the medical committee caused the contradiction between the doctor and the nurse: the workers of the site were inserted in the left arm by the steel bars, but the hospital was endowed with an anesthesiologist. Insufficient, unable to arrange surgery after 6 hours late, the patient can no longer bear the pain and was forced to go to a private hospital for medical treatment.
The population tends to age and the medical supply is inadequate
All of this shows that, regardless of the system, the front-line staff is conscientious and conscientious. Will bring a tipping point that will crash the system! After all, people are the people, and the concentration of medical personnel will inevitably be interrupted by the workplace and the special incidents that occur from time to time, they will also worry about children at home, sick parents and old. When a doctor has to treat 40 to 50 outpatient outpatients in the morning, it may take too little time and there will naturally be a mistake in the middle of the job. More importantly, if we only have 1.2 million seniors today, the medical system is so "high risk," what will happen when the number of Seniors will double to 2.4 million in the next 15 years? Especially when it takes 13 years to train a specialist and 15 years to build a large hospital, has such a system crossed the tipping point? I believe that readers can judge for themselves.
More than a year ago, one of the main reasons why the British Conservative Party was so hot and almost lost the election was that the resources of the medical system were inadequate. In fact, any responsible government and society, when objective data and facts have proved that the original sound system has begun to seriously degrade, "critical danger", the public should not believe that the system can still sustain for many years. Comments such as "deaf" and "no death" should not allow the director to do nothing. Because at that time, all star fire inside and outside the system – such as the economic recession, the aging of the population, global warming, the Commercial wars and other issues can certainly be punished! In fact, the tipping point should be the cause of immediate grief and sorrow, and this should not be a blind eye, and you must try to approach the test. consequences!
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