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(Central News Agency) The United States and China began imposing tariffs of 25% on their respective goods by $ 50 billion in stages, and the trade war began. The global economy should not be affected by short-term short-term, but if the trade war intensifies and global trade that has weakened its kinetic energy is damaged, Taiwan will not be able to stay at home. # 39; gap.
According to the plan, the United States imposed a 25% tariff on Chinese products financed by China with high-tech products from 0: 1 am. China responded "with equal force" and imposed tariffs on the same tariff for US $ 34 billion of US agricultural and automotive products. The two countries will announce details of tariffs on their $ 16 billion worth of goods.
From the threat of the word to the imposition of the issue, it is now considered that the US-China trade war begins, but as both governments have announced in the mid-1990s June, the global financial market was prepared psychologically. The current variable lies in the next step in the United States and China.The scale of the trade war is still far away and continues to expand.At the same time, US President Trump has threatened that the United States will continue to impose tariffs on China as long as China retaliates. The question mark in the mind of the investor will not be able to calm down until the day has not been eliminated.
However, as the trade war between the United States and China is over, the global economic engine is still running at full speed. The New York-based Conference Board released the 2018 Global Economic Outlook report in June, which estimates that the global economy will grow 3.2 percent this year, maintaining last year's level.
Bart van Ark, chief economist at the Economic Council, said that trade tensions are not likely to immediately change the economic trend, and the current economic state may last at least half a year. Even if trade disputes increase, countries compete to impose tariffs or tariff quotas to limit the volume of imported goods, the world economy will not turn sharply.
But he warned that trade policy has already overwhelmed other financial risks and poses the greatest threat to global economic growth: if companies delay investment or recruit talent, growth world economy will slow down and the risk of a recession will slow down. Improve.
In fact, world trade has shown signs of cooling well before the entry into force of US-Chinese tariffs. The Wall Street Journal reported that surveys published this week show that strong growth in global exports has almost stagnated last year, becoming one of the reasons why recent stock markets such as South Korea and Japan are losing ground.
JPMorgan's new Manufacturing Purchasing Manager (PMI) export index fell to 50.5 in June, reaching its lowest level in two years. These data are greater than 50, which means that export orders continue to increase, but since the peak of the band reached 54.2 in January this year, it has dropped every month.
What is the impact of the Sino-US trade war on Taiwan?
Taiwan, which relies heavily on foreign trade for its economic growth, is naturally a big warning. In particular, the United States continues to increase its interest rates, stimulating the return of global funds. Emerging markets have recently become "vending machines" funded by foreign investors. Today, the high tariff is added and Taiwan is even more under pressure.
According to the World Trade Organization (WTO), Taiwan's participation in the global value chain (participation rate) reached 67.6%. In the complex and intertwined international environment of the international supply chain, the two largest economies in the world are fighting against trade, especially when the United States will impose tariff targets on the Chinese science and technology industry, integrated circuits accounting for almost 30% of exports. Taiwan is hard to be alone.
"World Magazine" reported that Patek Asset Management ranked 10 areas hardest hit by trade war according to the degree of integration of countries and global value chains, and Taiwan has ranked second in tragic terms. Countries that supply raw materials to other countries will suffer the most. According to Patek Asset Management, Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, and Iceland are hard to escape.
Taiwan's capital and technology are intensive and the degree of globalization is extremely high. Major exports include semiconductors, computers and plastics, while electronic components and semiconductor wafers account for 40% of total exports to Taiwan.
The Hong Kong Economic Times reported that with the participation rate of global value chains, Luxembourg ranked at 70.8%, slightly above the 67.6% of Taiwan. South Korea, Singapore and Malaysia ranked respectively 6 and 8, with a connection rate of 62.1%, 61.6% and 60.4%. For example, Taiwan is a center of electronic products production and synthetic circuit exports account for 40% of total exports. Hungary is an important automotive production base, exporting a large number of cars to the United States and the United States. ;European Union. In 2016, auto exports accounted for 15% of total exports.
"News media" reported that the recent survey of the Chinese Institute of Economic Research on Taiwan's manufacturing industry, more than half of the manufacturing industry studied should have a different impact on the orders or operations of the company, may affect three main levels The price of materials has increased, the purchase policy and orders have been adjusted, or the customer has been lost.In fact, on the list of the first tariffs imposed by the United States, most are grocery stores that have little impact on Taiwan. Transfer order effect. "
However, in the future, Taiwan's stocks must always pay attention to the expansion of the trade war, because in the current globalized environment, countries and regions are dependent on the Economic and trade dependence and Taiwan can not escape the trade war.Sun Mingde, director of the Prosperity Forecast Center of the Taijing Institute, said that Taiwan was more concerned about the next wave of Trump shares, c & rsquo; Is the $ 200 billion product part, will it be drawn? Will it be included in the cross-strait electronic supply chain in the Taiwan Strait? it is spreading to the electronics industry, it will affect not only Taiwan's exports, but will also increase the implementation of tariffs. "Taiwan's electronic stocks will fall first."
"Central News Agency" has reported that if the trade war e US-Chinese will trigger the transfer effect of the technology industry, the economist Fan Aike believes that it must still be observed. He predicted that the impact of the US-China trade dispute over the supply chain will not appear until 2019-2020.
The reason Washington refers to the Chinese technology industry is to punish Beijing for forcing US companies to transfer technology to Chinese partners and block "Made in China 2025" to subsidize the unfair behavior of large corporations. companies. The United States will raise tariffs on Chinese high-tech exports, which will limit the ability of the Chinese technology industry to expand its market in the United States, but it remains to be seen if Washington will succeed in forcing Beijing to change its industrial policy.
On the other hand, on the list of tariffs imposed by the United States in the United States, soy is the most eye-catching. China imported about US $ 14 billion worth of soybeans from the United States last year. In addition to raising prices, Beijing recently turned to Brazil to buy .C & # 39; is obviously to punish the big American agricultural state and let the fire burn in the warehouse. Brad Setsers, senior researcher at the New York Association of Diplomatic Relations (CFR), said during a conference call on US-China trade disputes last week that the first wave of US-US mutual tariffs China was mainly limited to certain industries. The economic shock is limited, but if the US imposes duties on 450 billion US dollars of Chinese goods, the impact should not be underestimated.
Because China is a super-national in the United States, if Trump continues to raise tariffs, Beijing will not be able to pay a good job in tariffs. It is widely believed that China could build hidden barriers at the time, such as hampering US companies operating in China, encourage people to turn down US products and even threaten Washington with nearly $ 1.2 trillion of US US public debt.
Seiser pointed out that the magnitude of the tariff threat to the United States will make it difficult for China to react without damaging its own economy. If the trade war between the United States and China accelerates, it will significantly harm the global economy, and it will no longer be just a trade issue.
News Source:
Nuclear Project Editor: Yang Zhiyu
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