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The Sino-US trade war has not only begun, but is being improved. The United States has announced additional tariffs of $ 200 billion on Chinese imports, but China has not followed that date. In addition to the rational answer, the most important thing is that the total amount of goods imported from the United States only amounts to $ 130 billion, which is not enough. The trade war comes from the Thucydides trap, which many people have talked about, but the trade war is not just a trade war, but a currency war, of which we talk less.
The United States is a financial country, and China, Japan, Germany, etc. are trading countries. On the surface, trading countries earn a large amount of foreign exchange and trade surpluses. The US dollar is the world's leading trading and settlement currency. After the trading countries earn US dollars, most of the world's dollars are lost. between them are used to increase US debt. Because if you do not lend money to the United States, the US silver paper will fill the fiscal gap, the dollar will depreciate and the dollar earned by the trading country will have currency losses. In addition, the weakening of the US dollar will also hurt the export of trading countries.
The creditor is forced to seize the debt
As long as the dollar's status is fixed at one, the trading nation will have to work around it, try to maintain its stability and pray for that she does not depreciate. That's what the former US Treasury Secretary, John Connolly, said: "It may be our motto, but that's your problem." (True almost did Bankruptcy: "If I borrowed enough, the problem is The bank, not mine." Won three.As a result, the creditors were forced to follow the direction of the debt.
In any case, China is an excellent player in the US dollar game, if not, how can it become the second largest economy in the world after joining the WTO?
Since the onset of the tsunami, the M2 broadcast in China is almost every year ranked first in the world with nearly two for one (water immersion in Jinshan) and about one for one in the United States (even after three rounds of quantitative easing). Can the continent issue as much currency and the RMB exchange rate can remain stable?
opulent from China first absorbs US dollars into the hands of businesses and individuals before releasing the RMB. That is, the RMB issue is based on credit in US dollars. Currency accounts for the central bank's currency issue, the highest has reached 80%, and now it is close to 60%.
The US capital returns to the top of China
US Federal Reserve at three rounds of QE, the US M2 did not rise, that's because the money came to Asia. On this basis, the People's Bank of China has made China's M2 growth the world's number one. Not only has the mayor lifted and risen, but diplomacy, armaments and overseas mergers and acquisitions all have money. But the problem is that now that the Fed has started QT, Trump has caused fires everywhere and has led the funds to the United States. If funds actually withdraw from Asia in large quantities, the mainland's money supply will face a severe test.
There is no hammer for the RMB, one is to reduce the money supply, or find a new credit base. The United States to contain the rise of China is first a trade war, not only to raise tariffs, but to unite other countries to contain China. The United States has already discussed with other developed countries to put in place a new trading system and exclude China (I found that in the WTO system, how not to win the China?). In addition, the United States may have disputes with Europe and Japan, but there should be no disagreement in the areas of protection of intellectual property rights and restriction of technology transfer.
The second is technology. The continental network has advantages in the economic model, scale and application, but the key hardware technology is still in the hands of European and American companies. Lack of memory is the biggest test for companies in the continental network.
The third is money. After the financial tsunami, everyone said that the United States would go down, but as long as the renminbi and the euro would not challenge the hegemony of the dollar, the United States could continue to ask questions to China.
The stock market adjustment has been deep and the third quarter is worthy of optimism, but in the medium and long term, the Nasdaq will post 10,000 points, and it will likely be faster than the average. Hang Seng index of 40,000 points.
Filler: Several years ago, my good friend was a high school student at Fudan University Law School, in the most prosperous street of Nanjing West Road, Shanghai, where I stood in front of the commercial building. A few years later, I got to know the direction of the real estate developer and after a few years, when I published the book, I was helped by the preface. When I stood in front of the mall 10 years ago, how could I think of what happened after? Destiny is really incredible. I wish Mr. Chen a happy retirement and a long life.
(Editor's Note: Hao Chenglin's book "Get Rich New Generation 2 – Science Network Junlin World" is now available )
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