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Photo: Eclipse Sportswire
Unlikely, the Kentucky Derby's favorite after the race, ranked fourth after the disqualification of Maximum Security at Churchill Downs, will become the morning favorite for the second leg of the Triple Crown Series on May 18 Preakness Stakes at the Pimlico Racecourse.
That's what Horse Racing Nation Co-Founder Mark Midland thinks, citing Prachaness's early probabilities with Improbable – Bob Baffert's coaching coach Mike Smith – as the top 3-1 pick.
"We should also stress that maximum safety would have been a big favorite here," said Midland, who created the 1999 Kentucky Derby Future Wager by Churchill Downs. "Everyone watched him win the Derby in a compelling way, and the support he received helped him to avenge this controversial disqualification."
In addition to maximum security, connections to Country House, Code of Honor and Tacitus all contributed to the transmission of Preakness. This is the first time since 1951 that the first four lines of the Derby do not return to Pimlico.
This set up a favoritism decision between Improbable and Will warseventh place in Derby who was caught in the virulent bend of Maximum Security. Midland installed War of Will as a second choice screened by Preakness 7-2.
"We chose Improbable as a favorite because of the combination of Baffert and Smith, but it's easy to see that War of Will could also be favored here," he said. "War of Will's problems in the Derby are notorious, and he certainly seemed to have a long way to go before all the problems started."
"It's a close contact between Improbable and War of Will, and I could see them as co-favorites in betting, or maybe War of Will could be favored."
The main challenges of the Derby duo are expected from Alwaysmining, a prolific Maryland man who stretched his speed by two laps to win six consecutive races at Laurel Park. He is the third choice early at 5-1.
Owendale, who defeated his Preakness rival, Anothertwistafate, in Keeneland's Lexington Stakes (G3), also seems to be making progress. He is 6-1 with Bourbon war, who ran close with Code of Honor in the best preparations for the Derby Gulfstream Park, the Fountain of Youth (G2) and the Florida Derby (G1).
"The Kentucky Derby's speed numbers have come down, while the" new shooters ", Alwaysmining and Owendale, have both recorded a Brisnet 99 speed index in their last races," said Midland. "There is reason to believe that one of the newcomers to the Triple Crown could upset the Derby riders in Baltimore."
With all other prizes priced at double digits, here is a sneak peek at the early morning line for the Preakness Stakes 10 Prospective Field:
| Preakness Stakes Contenders | |
| Horse | Projected odds |
| Unlikely | 3-1 |
| Will war | 7-2 |
| Alwaysmining | 5-1 |
| Bourbon war | 6-1 |
| Owendale | 6-1 |
| Win Win Win | 10-1 |
| Anotherwistafate | 10-1 |
| signalman | 15-1 |
| Laughing the fox | 20-1 |
| Bodexpress | 30-1 |
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