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The Houston Rockets had more at stake than any team entering the 2021 NBA Draft Lottery. Although they finished with the worst NBA record at 17-55 overall, the Rockets had 47.9 % chance of their pick slipping out of the top four and being passed down to the Oklahoma City Thunder going back to Chris Paul of the teams for Russell Westbrook. trade a few seasons earlier.
Houston heaved a sigh of relief when their pick ranked No.2 overall, but there was apparently still some disappointment in the air for the franchise. The Rockets are reportedly coveting Oklahoma state guard and Texas native Cade Cunningham who is widely expected to become No.1 overall. They haven’t given up on trying to get it.
The Rockets have been “aggressive” in trying to move up to number one with the Detroit Pistons, according to Shams Charania of The Athletic.
Houston’s desire to start rebuilding after James Harden with another big ball carrier who is good at pick-and-roll makes perfect sense. We’re about to see how far they’re willing to go and whether the Pistons have an interest in making a deal.
The Pistons and Rockets would always try to figure out what to do if they keep their choices. The Athletic reported that Detroit is also interested in G-League goalie Ignite Jalen Green and “could take him on Cunningham.” The Rockets are also currently taking Green on USC big man Evan Mobley in ESPN’s latest simulation project.
There is recent precedent for the first choice to be traded. In 2017, the Philadelphia 76ers went from No.3 to No.1 overall with the Boston Celtics to select top consensus prospect Markelle Fultz. While Fultz would be traded to the Orlando Magic two years later after a bizarre injury situation, Boston found their franchise superstar with third pick Jayson Tatum.
With such a crop of talent at the top of this draft class, there is a serious possibility that the No.1 pick will be traded. The rest of the league will be waiting to see what Houston does on draft night. Here are their options.
How the Pistons and Rockets can trade the top two picks in the draft
The Rockets have plenty of draft capital to use in a potential trade for the No.1. In addition to having the second pick this year, the Rockets also have the No.23 and No.24 picks. They also have a multitude. of choice of the Brooklyn Nets in the Harden Accord, Milwaukee’s first round in 2023 and Detroit’s first round in 2022 which is protected from 1 to 16 in the first year with slightly lower protections until 2027. Read all on Houston’s future picks here.
The Rockets can throw in the second overall pick plus a ton of current and future mid-round picks at the Pistons to trade the top two picks. While it may be appealing to Detroit depending on how they view Cunningham vs. Mobley and Green, it’s the infamous draft night trade between the Dallas Mavericks and the Atlanta Hawks in 2018 that may best explain how this deal could. unfold.
In 2018, the Mavericks sent No.5 overall and a protected 2019 top-five pick to the Hawks for No.3 and right to pick Luka Doncic. Atlanta would select Trae Young and pick Cam Reddish with their selection next year. If Houston is seriously considering acquiring Cunningham, a similar deal could look like this:
- Detroit gets: No. 2 pick overall, among Houston’s top five protected picks in 2022
- Houston gets: 1st general choice
It would be great value for Detroit to get down one spot, provided they think Green or Mobley is close to Cunningham in terms of value. It would also be a risky decision for a Houston team just starting to rebuild and will likely consider another high lottery pick next season.
Perhaps Houston can get the Pistons to bite on a 1-2 trade that also includes Detroit fully recovering its own 2022 first-rounder plus some additional assets. It would certainly help the Pistons try to navigate Stepien’s rule in the years to come. If the Rockets are truly desperate for Cunningham, Detroit could get a valuable 2022 Houston pick just for losing a spot.
Who would the Rockets be drafted for second overall?
If a deal between the Pistons and the Rockets doesn’t work out, Houston will still have some great options with the No. 2 pick. In a scenario where the Rockets have a choice, the choice will be between Green and Mobley.
We do not see this as a difficult decision. Mobley is the # 2 overall prospect in this draft with the benefit of potentially being even better than Cunningham if he hits his prime. For us, Cunningham vs. Mobley is a much closer debate than Mobley vs. Green.
I recently joined Estimated PD Web Project Analyst for a full description of Mobley’s game.
The Mobley over Green case looks like this:
Mobley has immense versatility for a 7ft foot at both ends of the floor. He projects as the most impactful defensive prospect in this draft as the type of tall man who can play any style of pick-and-roll cover due to his lateral mobility and agility. Mobley is quick enough to defend around the perimeter with traps and hard hedges, and has a 7’5 wingspan to challenge shots even in fall cover. Even though he sometimes struggles to hold his ground defending post-ups because of his slim frame, he can often still challenge a shot because of his length.
Offensively, Mobley doesn’t have an aggressive mindset, but still has plenty of ways to influence the game. He’s a formidable lob target having set a high screen and has started to develop as an outside shooter. after going from 12 of 40 (30%) to three as a freshman at USC. Mobley is also a tantalizing passer for the position who can always find the open man when the defense scrambles.
Mobley may never average 25 points per game, but his physical and athletic gifts combined with his soaring skill level give him plenty of opportunities to win at a high level. For a Houston team that has just started rebuilding, Mobley feels like a perfect choice as he can unlock so many different styles of play as the Rockets continue to build a team around him.
The downside with Mobley comes if he can’t add strength to his frame and the development of his offensive skills stalls. It’s always risky to take a big man so high in the draft (we gave the Warriors a C rating for picking James Wiseman at No.2 last year), but Mobley is talented enough to bet on it.
Green is also a great prospect. A 6’6 shooting guard, Green has extreme athleticism that allows him to jump through the first line of defense and quickly leave the ground to finish plays over or around the edge. His punching touch impressed in the G League, and he exhibited advanced footwork on back and side steps that allowed him to look clean in most situations. Green has questions as a playmaker and defender, but he could be a three-tier goalscorer who threatens to average 30 points per game in his prime.
As talented as Green is, Mobley has more possibilities to impact the game if he hits his cap. We would take Mobley at No. 2 overall and not think twice.
Houston could also trade with the Cavs or the Raptors
If Houston can’t agree on a deal to put Cunningham in the top spot, they may consider negotiating. The Cleveland Cavaliers at No.3 and the Toronto Raptors at No.4 would be ideal trading partners.
We think Mobley would be a perfect fit for Cleveland and Toronto. Would either franchise drop one of the top five protected picks next year to progress for it? If they did, that would be great value for Houston, provided they believe Green and / or Gonzaga goalkeeper Jalen Suggs are prospects on a similar level to Mobley. Dealing with a future pick would make more sense for No. 4 Toronto, as they’re closer to competing for a playoff berth than Cleveland.
The Rockets simply have a lot of great options with the # 2 pick
Houston may be disappointed that they didn’t grab the No. 1 overall and Cunningham’s rights, but the reality is that they’ve always come out of the lottery as big winners by coming away with the No. 2. The second choice places Houston in a privileged position to trade or trade. If they keep the choice, Mobley would be a great selection in our opinion.
There’s a ton of pressure on the Rockets to pull off this draft after losing Harden during the season. What they decide to do in a trade or making a choice will directly influence the rest of the top five. Whatever happens on draft night, Houston will be primarily involved in how the draft top plays out.
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