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You are probably reading a lot of Super Bowl predictions right now. The 2019 NFL season is about to begin and a Super Bowl choice dam is coming up. Invariably, about 95% of these suggestions will belong to one of the five teams, with the remaining 5% being attributed to fashionable selections and occasional efforts. When you only have one choice, you will choose one of the favorites.
Of course, even if you think that a team like the Patriots is most likely to win, the best predictions probably include a range of results. The Patriots may be your most likely candidate, but it's also unrealistic to think that they have a 100% shooting to win the Super Bowl. Do you think they are at 15%? Maybe 25% or 50%? Is there a sleeper who, according to most people, has no chance of winning the Super Bowl, only for you to fix it at around 5%? The 2017 Eagles may have been this team for a lot of people and their long shot has earned them even after losing Carson Wentz.
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Each year, near the start of the NFL season, I try to think of the Super Bowl differently. Instead of determining which team is most likely to win an NFL title, I try to determine the most plausible path for each of the 32 teams in the league in order to claim the biggest prize in the sport. Some are almost impossible to understand. For many cellar residents of the league, there was almost always serious injury to one or more adjacent quarters. I do not want anyone to get hurt, but let's be honest: the Dolphins do not win the Super Bowl if Tom Brady is as usual.
So, let's go team by team and see what it would take for each organization to succeed and reach the LIV Super Bowl. The most important part of any championship race is simply to reach the playoffs, given how crazy the playoffs can be. So I focused on how each team can create a division title and / or a goodbye for the playoffs. Each situation takes place in its own universe, so what I mentioned in the Bengals section, for example, does not apply anywhere else. If that sounds crazy, then refer to some of the ridiculous real-life experiences I mention in the presentation notes below to remind you that the real NFL has totally unexpected events that happen every season.
Even saying this, I will admit that my starting point – the longest chances of the league for the Super Bowl according to ESPN's (ESPI) – is a bit of an exaggeration.
Jump to:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | INDIANA
JAX | KC | BAC | LAR | MIA | MIN | BORN
NO | NYG | NYJ | OAK | PHI | PIT | SF
MER | TB | TEN | WSH
Chance to win the LIV Super Bowl: Less than 0.1%
Chance to do the series3.9%
Caesars Super Bowl odds: +30000
OK, I understand why you shout. The dolphins are not going to win the Super Bowl. They are in a division with the Patriots, defending champions of the Super Bowl, and have come to exchange two of their best offensive players. The only person who does not realize that Miami is preparing to recruit a university quarterback like Justin Herbert or Tua Tagovailoa is his coach Brian Flores. FPI thinks the Dolphins are more likely to be 0-16 than to win the LIV Super Bowl in their national stadium.
Dolphins, however, are the best reminder of how something that seems obvious in pre-season can disappear once the season actually begins. Return in 2007, when the Patriots were 16-0 in the regular season and they managed to stand out from a pair of helmets. Under the leadership of first-year head coach Cam Cameron, Miami earned a 1-1 draw to finish with the worst football record. It would have been absolutely ridiculous to suggest that Miami would win the AFC East in 2008.
And yet, that is exactly what happened. The Patriots lost Brady in week 1 because of a torn ACL, and the The Dolphins rode the Wildcat and recorded a 7-2 record in games decided seven points or less for a division title. These dolphins lost to the Ravens in the first run, but something that would have seemed absurd before the season turned out to be exactly what happened during the campaign.
For the Dolphins to win their division and fall in the Super Bowl, you'll probably need Brady to get hurt or to fall catastrophically at 42. If the Jets do not realize their potential under Adam Gase and the Bills One can not do anything with Josh Allen at the quarterback, the division – at least theoretically – would be wide open. Miami has one of the least impressive offensive lines in recent memory after the sale of Laremy Tunsil, but has talent on the defensive and in the high school. Josh Rosen is basically a lottery ticket at this stage, but lottery tickets are sometimes accepted, is not it? The 2008 Dolphins illuminate the difference between incredibly improbable and impossible.
Chance to win the LIV Super Bowl: Less than 0.1%
Chance to do the series8%
Caesars Super Bowl odds: +20000
I think the probability between the Dolphins and Washington is much greater than the numbers might indicate. There is a huge disparity in terms of talent between the two teams. Washington has a legitimate offensive line with a star, Brandon Scherff, and a second, Trent Williams, who is holding on. (Williams is likely to return in September for this scenario to materialize.) Jay Gruden's defense was 20th at the DVOA last season, but she got three first-round picks along the defensive line: Jonathan Allen, Daron Payne and Ride Sweat. stars like Ryan Kerrigan, cornerback, cornerback Josh Norman and freelance agent Landon Collins at safety. A healthy defense in Washington could be above average.
Dwayne Haskins, the first-round pick, should be outclassed and played to a high level so Washington can win his division and put himself in a prime position for a playoff series after taking over for the first week. Keenum business starter. The Cowboys are about to lose ground and the Eagles one Wentz away from Josh McCown, 40, at the quarterback position, it will likely be a injury to a rival of the division and a long distance between his quarter inexperienced and sprint playoff series.
Chance to win the LIV Super Bowl: Less than 0.1%
Chance to do the series3.6%
Caesars Super Bowl odds: +15000
Speaking of inexperienced quarterback! Kyler Murray has only made 519 assists in three seasons at the university, but his brilliant performance under Lincoln Riley in Oklahoma in 2018 was enough to propel him to the Heisman Trophy. We saw how much Baker Brown was looking for the Browns last season, although the needle really only moved for the No. 1 pick in 2018 after the Browns sent Hue Jackson and Todd Haley back and settled Freddie Kitchens as offensive coordinator.
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Mayfield and the Browns were 5-3 with Gregg Williams as coach. If the Cardinals are equally effective with the Murray duo and Kliff Kingsbury, they will be in the lineup to play in the NFC playoffs. Hanging halfback Patrick Peterson will be out of Arizona for six weeks, but he was skilled in defense (17th of the DVOA) last season and has the potential to be explosive in attack.
The Cardinals will need the division in front of them to clear, but we could have said that about the AFC North last year, only to see the Steelers collapse and miss the playoffs and the Ravens require late-season exploits of Lamar Jackson to win the division. If they can get an advantage on their land, the Cardinals will benefit from significant home support. they are 4-0 at home in the playoffs since moving to Arizona.
Chance to win the LIV Super Bowl: Less than 0.1%
Chance to do the series: 11.2%
Caesars Super Bowl odds: +12500
For teams ranked 32nd-30th, a quarterback is the joker that could propel the team to unexpected heights. For the Bengals, this X factor is Zac Taylor, 36, their new coach. Taylor could very well be a substitute coach who found himself sitting next to Sean McVay, but remember that the Rams were listed at +10000 to win the Super Bowl two years ago, before the next season. win 11-5 and win the title. Where is.
McVay gave life to a moribund franchise overshadowed by years of mediocrity under Jeff Fisher. Could Taylor do the same for a team of Bengals who collapsed in anonymity over the last few days of Marvin Lewis?
I would feel more confident if the Bengals were healthier, since the NFL The fifth most injured team in 2018 has already lost first-round offensive striker Jonah Williams (shoulder) for the year and has both tackle Cordy Glenn (concussion) and wide receiver AJ Green (ankle) out indefinitely . It may be better to hope for a radical improvement on the part of the defense, which has faced the toughest schedule for the league's offensive offense last season and is returning to one of the deepest lines. of the league. Each team in front of the Bengals in North AFC has red flags; Bengals are no exception, but their core is underestimated and has a higher ceiling than most people remember.
Chance to win the LIV Super Bowl: Less than 0.1%
Chance to do the series6.5%
Caesars Super Bowl odds: +7500
As in Washington, the Giants hope to have a possible injury to Wentz and a loss of the Cowboys to an unlikely division title and a playoff race. Their offensive game plan will not be quite modern, as the avowed plan is to draw the ball to Saquon Barkley and hope the second year does something magical, but they should have a good offensive line improved after warning Kevin Zeitler. New York has the opportunity for a considerable improvement at quarterback with Daniel Jones, who looked fantastic in pre-season and would not need to do much to improve Eli Manning. , 38 years old.
The most important hole for the Giants is in Pass-Rusher, where the chart of the depths is led by personalities such as Lorenzo Carter, Kareem Martin and the former Cardinals, Markus Golden. Carter debuted as a rookie, and Golden is only two years away from a 12.5-bag campaign with Arizona. The Giants must use one or more of these advanced attackers to deliver a career season to build a competent defense. Remember that the 2011 Giants won a Super Bowl when they were outclassed by six points during the regular season; This is a franchise that has won its last two championships by staying around and becoming popular at the right time.
Chance to win the LIV Super Bowl0.1%
Chance to do the series: 8.2%
Caesars Super Bowl odds: +10000
Tampa Bay is one of the teams that I hope to improve in 2019, in part because it's virtually impossible for its defense to be worse than in 2018. The Bucs have been beaten by wounds and terribly terrible in the red zone. Over the past four years, they have been three standard deviations below average field placement attempts. I would project them to be below average in these categories by 2019. If they can get lucky and finish above average in these categories this season, they have the potential to recover quickly.
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The logic, of course, is that the Bucs should attack well with their weapons and the arrival of coach Bruce Arians, who has built superb pass attacks at virtually every recent stop. It's hard to see them flourish to the point of winning the NFC South, as the Saints should be fighting for a Super Bowl and the Falcons and Panthers should improve. In a scenario in which Drew Brees weakens with age and Cam Newton struggles to stay healthy, but the Bucs could rank first in a division in which each team wins between 8 and 10 games. And if the offense is up to expectations, no team will want to play against a Bucs team capable of collecting more than 40 points each week of January. Could they be the 2016 Falcons?
Chance to win the LIV Super Bowl0.1%
Chance to do the series8%
Caesars Super Bowl odds: +6000
No less than an authority that our Louis Riddick designated the Raiders as his surprise team for 2019. Given the Riddick roadmap, we should pay more attention to what the Raiders are capable of doing in 2019. It is clear that Jon Gruden builds his attack around the line to try to protect quarterback Derek Carr , although additions to wide receivers Antonio Brown and Tyrell Williams will certainly give options to the quarterback in battle.
A young and deep secondary could merge faster than expected now that Oakland might have something more than an embryonic pass rush. In Kansas City, he still has a lot of work to do, but with the Chargers already beset by missing contributors, it may take an incoherent or hurt season for Patrick Mahomes to bring the Raiders to AFC West.
Tom Brady began his career – and ended the first run of Gruden with the Raiders – after a playoff loss to Foxborough. Could Gruden reverse the story and return the favor 18 years later?
Chance to win the LIV Super Bowl: 0.3%
Chance to do the series: 20.3%
Caesars Super Bowl odds: +8000
The Bills had a playoff caliber defense in 2018, while Tre & # 39; Davious White & Co. had overcome a slow start to finish second at DVOA. The offensive did not hold its share of the job, finishing with the second goal of the league.worst DVOA. The good news is that Buffalo returns each of its major defense contributors and has evolved into all areas in attack, adding eight new starters to wide receiver Zay Jones, left tackle Dion Dawkins and second-year quarterback Josh Allen .
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If added talent sparks a dramatic improvement at Allen, the Bills should be a team with wild cards. To win the division, Brady would probably need a little hindsight, but if the Bills manage to dominate the Patriots' advantage and hold a playoff match for the first time since 1996, the team Sean McDermott should be in great shape. The Bills are 9-1 since the home playoff merger, but just 3-13 from Western New York.
Chance to win the LIV Super Bowl: 0.3%
Chance to do the series18.1%
Caesars Super Bowl odds: +8000
The Broncos have their own fortress in Denver, where they have gone 17-5 in the playoffs since the merger. When you look at organizations with 10 playoff games played both on the field and on the road since 1970, no team has enjoyed a bigger advantage than the Broncos on the field, which have been 10.6 points better in front of their own fans than in front of the opposition. The playoffs of the Broncos probably involve one or two games in Colorado.
The fifth-ranked DVOA-ranked league defenseman returns his key duo of Bradley Chubb and Von Miller. Although no one is excited about Joe Flacco in the middle, we all know what he did in the playoffs. The concern here is to overtake the Chiefs and Mahomes to win the division, as this would help Denver's chances; If anyone has an answer for Andy Reid 's team, it' s the new Broncos coach, Vic Fangio.
Chance to win the LIV Super Bowl: 0.4%
Chance to do the series17.4%
Caesars Super Bowl odds: +7500
The Lions did not impress during the preseason, as they are one of two teams (Jacksonville) not to win in their four pre-season games. Of course, I would not rely much on that meaning; In the last pre-season, four teams started the 0-4 season and these four teams – the Cowboys, Falcons, Seahawks and Titans – made a 36-28 regular-season combination with two of the teams. four playoff teams.
The numbers suggest that Lions should be better this season, and they have added a few key employees. Matt Patricia's defense finished 27th at the DVOA, but she traded injured striker Ziggy Ansah against Trey Flowers, defensive tackle Mike Daniels and cornerback Justin Coleman. The offensive should match the team's strengths and the new offensive coordinator, Darrell Bevell, after the team signed striker Jesse James and team TJ Hockenson – another tight end – with a first round choice. If running back Kerryon Johnson can stay healthy, the Lions have no weakness in attack beyond the left guard.
How will the Lions go beyond the rest of the NFC north to win a division title? On paper, it seems hard to believe that Lions will overtake the Bears, Packers and Vikings. Again, at the same time last year, who expected the Bears to do the same kind of jump and win the North, not to mention 3.5 wins? The Lions start with a brutally difficult schedule after their opening game against Arizona, as they face the Chargers, Eagles and Chiefs before an early start. If they manage to qualify at 2-2, they will be in better shape than their balance sheet seems.
Chance to win the LIV Super Bowl0.6%
Chance to do the series29.6%
Caesars Super Bowl odds: +6000
It's simple. The Jets are hoping – maybe even waiting – for Sam Darnold to take advantage of the kind of second-year training Carson Wentz experienced before breaking his ACL in 2017. The Eagles helped Wentz stand out by making major additions to both sides of the ball out of season, and although you have problems with some of their prizes, the Jets have added some talented veterans to running backer Veon Bell, to linebacker CJ Mosley, to wide receiver Jamison Crowder and offensive linemen Kelechi Osemele and Ryan Kalil, as well as Adam Gase, quarterback coach.
The Jets are a trendy joker choice, and although I'm not usually on board this type of team (see: 498 of 2018), the numbers are a boost for the Jets. The field advantage is a big demand considering the presence of the Patriots, but Gase and the Jets have been a source of trouble for Bill Belichick in recent years. It seems too early for the Jets, but who could have said that the Eagles were about to win the Super Bowl with Wentz – not to mention substitute Nick Foles – before 2017?
Chance to win the LIV Super Bowl0.6%
Chance to do the series: 24%
Caesars Super Bowl odds: +4500
Obviously, the Colts are in a different situation after Andrew Luck's retirement. They were favorites to win the AFC South and 15-1 to win the Super Bowl before Luck's breathtaking retirement, but the good news is that there is a logical way for them to regain their previous status. Prior to Colts' retirement, many spectators were among Luck's top-rated players. Although quarterback Jacoby Brissett may be downgraded, there is still a chance Brissett is playing at a similar level. The ex-Patriotes passer has played as a top-tier replacement in 2017, but with a better offensive line and a year to learn under Frank Reich, he has a chance to significantly improve his previous scores.
Indy also hired Brian Hoyer earlier this week, which improves his floor if Brissett struggles or hurts himself. With 10 first-round or second-round picks written by general manager Chris Ballard on the roster and an open match for AFC South, the Colts could easily get back on the playoff radar. The 1999 Rams form a team that lost its quarterback in August and that seems to have been left for dead, but only for an excellent coaching staff and a remarkable talent for helping an inexperienced quarterback – a 28-year-old player with 11 career pass attempts under the name of Kurt Warner – to unleash its full potential.
Chance to win the LIV Super Bowl1.2%
Chance to do the series34.1%
Caesars Super Bowl odds: +4000
The 49ers follow this year's Colts by chance, a team whose underlying numbers are looking for improvement and who have virtually (virtually) nothing from their expensive quarter-out the previous season. Jimmy Garoppolo had an uneven pre-season, but I suspect he'll be fine by the end of September after having representatives against sets of assists for the NFL. It's useful for the 49ers to start with the Bucs, Bengals and Steelers before getting paid.
Garoppolo will almost certainly start more than three games and the 49ers should be well improved in defense after their acquisition. Dee Ford and Nick Bosa to rebuild their pass. They will also have more than two interceptions, their total for the entirety from 2018. They seem to be buried in the western NFC behind the Rams and the Seahawks, but the Rams are one of the most likely teams to decline, and the Seahawks defended their defense with unsustainable efficiency in thirds. tests and in the red zone until a place in series.
The 49ers are probably the best choice of the surprise division winner in the league, which could propel them to a Falcons race in 2016, in January.
Chance to win the LIV Super Bowl1.4%
Chance to do the series35.2%
Caesars Super Bowl odds: +5000
Mike Vrabel's team has the right to feel disrespected. The Titans ranked last in terms of probabilities for the Super Bowl in South Africa until retirement, despite the fact that there were 17 at the beginning of Blaine Gabbert's 17th week. Tennessee has been hard to understand from week to week, but it's a team that beat the Eagles, Patriots and Cowboys after-Amari Cooper by a total of 41 points last season. In the last three seasons, the Patriots are the only team to have won more series wins than the Titans 11 in the playoffs. The best of Tennessee is awesome.
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Of course, the Titans have a playoff spot and a playoff win to show for three consecutive seasons from 9 to 7. The goal must be to capture Tennessee's high-level form for a longer stretch of the season, which would probably require a healthy campaign from quarterback Marcus Mariota and a stable offensive match plan for a team that seems to fall in love with his weapons. General Manager Jon Robinson has rebuilt the defensive pass for the off season. The Titans are now turning to Cameron Wake and Harold Landry, the second player of 2018, as starting striker. If they can survive the suspension of left tackle Taylor Lewan early in the season, they should be competitive in a wide open AFC South.
Chance to win the LIV Super Bowl1.6%
Chance to do the series35.1%
Caesars Super Bowl odds: +5000
The Panthers have always played as an above-average team over the last six seasons, their balance sheets fluctuating almost entirely due to their performance in tight games and quarterback Cam Newton's health. After the Panthers lost 2-7 in games to a score last season as Newton struggled with a sick shoulder, Caroline would expect to be better in tight games and find a healthier Newton after surgery. The foot injury that Newton suffered in pre-season does not seem likely to bother the former league MVP at Week 1.
Is Carolina well positioned to lead NFC South? Perhaps. The Panthers have certainly not had the sexiest season in the league, but after adding serious depth to both sides of the ball, they could be the second deepest team in the line of scrimmage in the NFC after the Eagles. If the Saints slip, Caroline is better placed than the Falcons to win eleven wins and win eleven games. A defense that was a problem already before the injuries dragged them into 2018. The depth of Carolina should extend in winter.
Chance to win the LIV Super Bowl1.7%
Chance to do the series35.8%
Caesars Super Bowl odds: +3000
It seems impossible that the Jaguars beat the Patriots and reach the Super Bowl less than two years ago, but after taking a 10-point lead in the final quarter of the 2017 AFC Championship game, Jacksonville's 39, collapsed last season. His dominant defense has only weakly slipped, falling from first to sixth in DVOA, but the Jaguar's attempt to strengthen their attack around the current game has collapsed in front of the injuries and the game under quarterback Blake Bortles, who was finally defeated after the season.
Matthew Berry thinks WR Dede Westbrook is a good choice, noting his strong connection to new Jags quarterback Nick Foles.
The case here is pretty simple, right? We know what Nick Foles is capable of doing. Upgrade from Bortles to Foles, let this incredible defense act to his advantage, hope for a resurgence (or maybe just an overpressure) of defenseman Leonard Fournette, and find double-digit wins.
I am skeptical. Foles will stay healthy or productive long enough for this to happen, but with former Eagles quarterback coach John DeFilippo, offensive coordinator, Foles should benefit from more help than under Jeff Fisher during his brief mandate with the Rams. . Luck's retirement just clears the way from Jacksonville to AFC South, and I do not need to remind you of what can happen if you give Foles a chance to play in the playoffs.
Chance to win the LIV Super Bowl1.8%
Chance to do the series: 39%
Caesars Super Bowl odds: +3000
The biggest hole in the Seahawks' lineup at the start of week 1 appeared to be on the board after the team traded Frank Clark and lost the free agent Ezekiel Ansah and the first-round rookie choice, LJ Collier, à des blessures à court terme. Maintenant, tout à coup, Seattle a Jadeveon Clowney. Une fois que Ansah et Collier sont revenus à la forme, la défense devrait être un atout supplémentaire. Le club secondaire pèse toujours avec de jeunes joueurs presque partout, mais si quelqu'un dans la ligue peut entraîner de jeunes défenseurs, c'est bien Pete Carroll.
À l’heure actuelle, la faiblesse la plus évidente pour Seattle semble être celle du receveur, où il va falloir que l’on passe devant Tyler Lockett. Si les Rams glissaient, les Seahawks se considéreraient comme l’équipe la mieux placée pour en tirer avantage et gagner le NFC West. Il est difficile de les voir remporter 12 victoires et revendiquer un avantage sur leur terrain lors des séries éliminatoires, mais le meilleur chemin pour Seattle consiste à obtenir deux matches de séries éliminatoires à domicile pour profiter de sa foule.
Chance de gagner le Super Bowl LIV: 1,9%
Chance de faire les séries: 40,3%
Caesars Super Bowl cotes: +4500
Les Corbeaux s'attendent à suivre un chemin remarquablement similaire à celui des Seahawks. Exécutez le ballon efficacement, appuyez-vous sur une défense dominante et profitez de ce qui a toujours été un excellent avantage sur le terrain. Baltimore est un peu plus incertain, étant donné qu'il semble prêt à utiliser le programme le plus lourd de la ligue derrière le quart de deuxième année Lamar Jackson et à perdre plusieurs joueurs importants en défensive, dont le secondeur CJ Mosley et le demi défenseur Terrell Suggs. .
Aucune équipe ne parvient toutefois à former des joueurs défensifs comme les Corbeaux, et ils pourraient faire face à un chemin plus facile vers leur titre de division et à un possible laissez-passer au premier tour que les Seahawks, compte tenu de la nature extrêmement lourde de l'AFC. Les Ravens se sont inclinés 6 à 1 avec Jackson comme partant après le départ de la saison dernière, leur seule défaite étant en prolongation face aux Chiefs après que Jackson se soit blessé. Pour se classer parmi les deux premières têtes de série, il leur faut probablement 16 matchs de Jackson et un de Brady ou de Mahomes.
Chance de gagner le Super Bowl LIV: 2%
Chance de faire les séries: 46%
Caesars Super Bowl cotes: +1400
Vous noterez l'écart considérable entre les chances des Browns par FPI et celles des parieurs de Caesars. Une fois que vous vous êtes ajusté à la vigueur des probabilités de chaque équipe, les probabilités des Browns au Super Bowl de Caesars sont de 5%. Une seule équipe de la NFL a un écart plus grand entre sa projection FPI et ses chances implicites à Caesars, et nous y reviendrons un peu plus tard.
Je dirais que FPI sous-estime l'impact de l'ajout de joueurs tels que le receveur large Odell Beckham Jr., Olivier Rusher et le plaqueur défensif Sheldon Richardson. D'un autre côté, je soupçonne que les Browns sont probablement un peu surexprimés dans le public, étant donné qu'ils n'étaient pas vraiment dominants la saison dernière. Cleveland a inscrit une fiche de 7-8-1, et même si vous voulez vous débarrasser de la première mi-temps dirigée par Hue Jackson, elle a été 5-3, tout en surclassant ses adversaires par un total de huit points, ce qui correspond à un score de 0,5. Les victoires des Browns au cours de cette période ont été presque exclusivement contre des équipes qui ont été détruites par des blessures (Atlanta, Carolina, Denver et Cincinnati à deux reprises), et ils ont perdu contre trois équipes des séries éliminatoires – les Chiefs, les Texans et les Ravens – par un total combiné de 34 points. .
Laissant cela de côté, les Browns devraient pouvoir augmenter leur niveau de jeu de base cette saison, surtout compte tenu de leurs ajouts des deux côtés de la balle. Finir troisième dans l’AFC Nord facilite également leur emploi du temps; Alors que les Corbeaux font face aux Texans et aux Chefs et que les Steelers ont les Colts et les Chargers, Cleveland affronte les Titans et les Broncos. Dans une division qui pourrait finir par être décidée par un match entre les trois équipes au sommet, un calendrier légèrement plus facile à lui seul pourrait faire la différence.
Les Browns sont une équipe plus variée que n'importe quelle autre équipe de football. Ils ont beaucoup de recrues jeunes joueurs comme le quart Baker Mayfield, le demi arrière Nick Chubb, le demi de coin Denzel Ward et le passeur Myles Garrett, qui pourraient très bien être en mesure de devenir l'un des meilleurs joueurs à leurs positions respectives en 2019. (Garrett n'est pas déjà loin.) Ils risquent de décevoir sous les attentes et nous considérons que 2019 est une année de consolidation avant d’entraîner une poussée en 2020, mais il se peut qu’il n’y ait pas d’équipe dans la NFL avec une amélioration plus évidente aux positions clés que celle-ci.
Chance de gagner le Super Bowl LIV: 2,4%
Chance de faire les séries: 47,5%
Caesars Super Bowl cotes: +1500
Les Cowboys sont une autre équipe dont les chances semblent plus prometteuses dans les paris sportifs que dans la simulation. Ils sont à égalité avec les Rams pour la huitième place la plus courte à Caesars, ce qui n’est pas surprenant compte tenu de l’énorme base de leurs fans et de la confiance qui règne autour de leur noyau de talent. Comme je l’ai écrit dans la colonne des équipes susceptibles de décliner, l’histoire donne à penser que les Cowboys ne seront pas aussi efficaces dans les matchs serrés et devraient faire un pas en arrière en 2019.
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If they're going to be the exceptions to the rule, the Cowboys will need a healthy season from their offensive line, which would include a return to form from star center Travis Frederick after missing all of 2018 while battling Guillain-Barré syndrome. With running back Ezekiel Elliott signed to a new deal and the Cowboys bringing back just about everyone of note from last season, Jason Garrett's team could be one of the league's best if its core stays healthy. Dallas has built around a stars-and-scrubs approach for the last 15 years, with the high points — 2007, 2014 and 2016 — coming when its best players have mostly stayed healthy. This season should be no different.
Chance to win Super Bowl LIV: 2.5%
Chance to make the playoffs: 43.6%
Caesars Super Bowl odds: +1800
The arguments get more and more plausible as we approach the teams with better odds, and imagining the Packers as Super Bowl contenders doesn't require much imagination. Aaron Rodgers is on the roster, and with Matt LaFleur coming in as coach, the hope is that the Packers will employ a more modern offense to rely less on Rodgers improvising. Naturally, he'll need to stay healthy for the Packers to do their thing.
What's more important, realistically, is improvement from a defense which ranked 29th in DVOA during Mike Pettine's first season at the helm. His track record had previously been impeccable, and the Packers were waylaid by a dramatic series of injuries to their secondary. Throw in a pass rush which had stagnated behind outside linebackers Clay Matthews and Nick Perry, and there simply wasn't any infrastructure to work with in Green Bay.
Marcus Spears thinks it was a mistake for the Packers to sit Aaron Rodgers during the preseason, because Matt LaFleur and Rodgers need to work on their communication.
Now that should be different. The Packers signed edge rushers Preston Smith and Za'Darius Smith to reinvigorate that pass rush, then added a high-upside prospect in first-rounder Rashan Gary. The Packers used their other first-round pick on safety Darnell Savage, who should start alongside Bears import Adrian Amos. The key player, though, might be a holdover; if Jaire Alexander can deliver on the promise he showed a year ago, the Packers might have a legitimate No. 1 cornerback. If the pass defense returns, the Packers should be in the thick of a crowded NFC race for the top two seeds.
Chance to win Super Bowl LIV: 2.7%
Chance to make the playoffs: 41.4%
Caesars Super Bowl odds: +2800
We also know what the Falcons can do, at least during the postseason. We need to see their defense maintain that level of play for a long stretch of time during the regular season. They have ranked 26th, 22nd and 31st in defensive DVOA during the regular season over the last three seasons, only to create 10 takeaways and piece together dominant stretches of play over five postseason games. As good as they were in 2016, consider that the 2017 Falcons held the Rams to 13 points in Los Angeles and an Eagles team that rolled over the Vikings and Patriots to 15 points in Philly.
If that version of Dan Quinn's defense shows up for a full season, the Falcons might have a good shot at finishing with the league's best record. Even if they can just stay healthy and get to league average on defense, their offense should be good enough to carry them to the postseason. Atlanta's path would be even clearer if the Saints slip.
Chance to win Super Bowl LIV: 2.8%
Chance to make the playoffs: 51.4%
Caesars Super Bowl odds: +1800
Plenty of Super Bowl winners have lost big names and still managed to improve the following season. The 2007 Giants come to mind, as they lost Tiki Barber to retirement after the three-time Pro Bowler posted 2,131 yards from scrimmage. The Giants did manage to hold on to Michael Strahan after the fellow future broadcaster considered retirement, which came in handy during Super Bowl XLII, but there's going to be life for the Steelers after trading wide receiver Antonio Brown.
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Even if the offense does take a step backward, there's reason to believe Pittsburgh should improve on its 13th-placed finish in DVOA. It had sub-replacement players taking meaningful snaps at inside linebacker and cornerback last season, spots which should be filled by new additions like Steven Nelson, Mark Barron, and first-round pick Devin Bush. An out-of-character 27th-placed finish in special teams DVOA is also unlikely to recur. The league's eighth-easiest schedule should leave the Steelers well-positioned to win 10 or 11 games in 2019, which could be enough to win the North and host at least one playoff game.
Chance to win Super Bowl LIV: 3%
Chance to make the playoffs: 49.4%
Caesars Super Bowl odds: +3500
Did I like Houston's pair of stunning trades on Saturday? Absolument pas. Do they make the 2019 team better? It's entirely possible. The draft pick compensation is what makes those trades a disastrous mess. By essentially trading defensive end Jadeveon Clowney for offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil and wide receiver Kenny Stills, though, the Texans filled their team's biggest hole from its greatest point of strength. The missing draft picks will hurt, but that's out of the purview of this analysis, which is strictly considering what will happen this upcoming season.
It's clear that Bill O'Brien thinks the Texans can win a Super Bowl with this core of talent. Andrew Luck's retirement certainly helps their chances. With Nick Foles and Marcus Mariota ever-present injury risks, there's a reasonable possibility that Deshaun Watson and the Texans walk to an AFC South title by virtue of having the only healthy, effective starting quarterback in the division. Like their in-state rivals, the Texans need their core of stars to stay healthy throughout the season. If they can go 6-0 in the South and keep J.J. Watt & Co. on the field all season, Houston has a viable path to a first-round bye.
Chance to win Super Bowl LIV: 3.3%
Chance to make the playoffs: 48.6%
Caesars Super Bowl odds: +900
Here's your team with the largest gap between the Vegas odds and FPI's projection. The post-vig odds for the Bears imply that they have a 7.6% shot of winning the Super Bowl, likely owing to an enthusiastic and excited Bears fan base. It might be telling that bookmakers who are longtime Bears fans themselves have suggested that the public support for Mitchell Trubisky's MVP odds has been "ridiculous" and produced an "insane number."
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The Bears might not be quite as dominant on defense in 2019 after losing coordinator Vic Fangio to the Broncos, but they have more room to improve on offense than it might seem, given that Chicago finished ninth in points scored but just 20th in DVOA. Why the discrepancy? The Bears' defense scored six touchdowns and handed their offense the league's the sixth-best starting field position.
Trubisky mixed moments of brilliance with inexplicably bad decisions last season, which likely owes to his inexperience. If he does take a step forward, the Bears will be in great position to repeat their performance, even if the factors which lead Chicago there are slightly different. Remember that the Bears also won those 12 games with shaky kicking from Cody Parkey even before that fateful miss against the Eagles. If the Bears have solved their kicking issues with Eddy Pineiro (or find an in-season replacement), the NFC playoffs could go through Soldier Field.
Chance to win Super Bowl LIV: 3.7%
Chance to make the playoffs: 49.7%
Caesars Super Bowl odds: +2000
Swapping out Case Keenum for Kirk Cousins last year seemed to raise Minnesota's floor to the point in which the absolute lowest possible outcome should have been competing for a playoff berth. Instead, the Vikings went 8-7-1 and missed the playoffs. Cousins took some of the blame, but a middling offensive line and subpar seasons from some of Mike Zimmer's defensive stars also deserved criticism.
The Vikings hope they fixed the line by drafting center Garrett Bradbury and importing Gary Kubiak as an offensive adviser to returning coordinator Kevin Stefanski. Zimmer wants his team to be run-first; if Minnesota can get that right under a scheme that has built successful run games seemingly for decades, it has the versatility and upside to rank in the top eight in both the pass and the run on offense and defense. You could count on one hand the number of teams that can even dream of being that good across the board in the NFL.
Chance to win Super Bowl LIV: 4.9%
Chance to make the playoffs: 57.7%
Caesars Super Bowl odds: +1400
One of those teams, though, is the Chargers. Los Angeles might have the most talented roster, 1-53, in the AFC. The problem has always been getting those players onto the field at the same time, and 2019 is no exception. L.A. is already down safety Derwin James until November, left tackle Russell Okung is out indefinitely, running back Melvin Gordon's holdout is stretching into the regular season, and wide receiver Keenan Allen is already banged up. We haven't even made it to real football yet.
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The key point for the Chargers comes after their Week 12 bye, when they should hopefully have James back for a late-season push. They get two winnable road games against the Broncos and Jags and then host the Vikings and Raiders before a Week 17 game against the Chiefs. The Chargers aren't healthy now, but if they can stay afloat in the playoff picture until James gets back in December, they could ride a hot stretch for the second consecutive year into a playoff run. If that Week 17 game is for the division, the Chargers shouldn't have that same fear of the Chiefs after topping their rivals in Kansas City last season.
Chance to win Super Bowl LIV: 7.6%
Chance to make the playoffs: 73%
Caesars Super Bowl odds: +1300
The Eagles have staggering depth on both sides of the ball. Their backup offensive line — which would require two practice-squad starters — is better than Miami's starting five. Their second-string defense — a group which could include players like defensive linemen Vinny Curry and Tim Jernigan and defensive backs Andrew Sendejo and Johnathan Cyprien — might very well not be the worst defense in football over a full season. No team is better positioned to deal with the impact of injuries than Doug Pederson & Co.
Should they be higher in these rankings? May be. The only obvious concern for the Eagles is quarterback Carson Wentz, who still hasn't suited up for a playoff game after missing each of the last two postseasons with injuries. We know they're capable of winning a Super Bowl without their franchise quarterback, but their most likely path to Miami involves keeping Wentz healthy and the top seed in the NFC. If the Cowboys decline, a middling division should put the Eagles in great shape to claim home-field advantage throughout the postseason. Owing to that friendly schedule, they have the best shot of any team in the NFC at winning 13 games.
Chance to win Super Bowl LIV: 10%
Chance to make the playoffs: 71.2%
Caesars Super Bowl odds: +1500
You'll note that the Rams are ahead of the Eagles by FPI, but behind them in terms of Caesars odds. I wonder how much of that is the uncertainty surrounding Todd Gurley. You can make a case that the concerns are overblown; if you want to argue that C.J. Anderson's run in a Rams uniform proves that Gurley isn't essential to their offensive success, they should be just fine with or without a healthy first-round pick at running back this season.
Of course, the Rams are more than Gurley. Los Angeles lost a handful of stars this offseason, including defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh and guard Rodger Saffold, but it brings back coach Sean McVay and a menagerie of receiving weapons for the newly extended Jared Goff. The Rams only lost three games last season, and they were to playoff teams that went a combined 34-14. McVay has lost one meaningful game to a team with a losing record in two seasons, and that was against Washington in his second career game as a coach.
If the Rams keep beating every team they're supposed to beat, they're going to keep rolling off 11-plus win seasons. They should have no trouble getting back into the postseason with 11 wins, and once they're there, Los Angeles has the offensive wizardry and the defensive genius — thanks to coordinator Wade Phillips — to put a scare into anybody.
Chance to win Super Bowl LIV: 12.3%
Chance to make the playoffs: 73%
Caesars Super Bowl odds: +800
You and I both know the Saints should have been the NFC team to advance to Super Bowl LIII, given what Nickell Robey-Coleman did on third down. Their roster is arguably better than the one that went 13-3 without any obvious holes last season, given that they've imported tight end Jared Cook, defensive tackle Malcom Brown and linebacker Kiko Alonso while retaining everyone notable short of running back Mark Ingram and retired center Max Unger. New Orleans is the best team in the league if the Drew Brees from the first half of 2018 shows up again this season, and even if Brees craters at 40, the Saints should still be a viable Super Bowl contender with their defense and running game. How many teams could realistically get a middling season from their Hall of Fame quarterback and still win a Super Bowl?
My biggest concern with the Saints is that their division is probably going to be tougher. Then again, I would have projected the Saints to face a competitive time in the NFC South last season, and both the Panthers and Falcons ended up with sub-.500 records. The Falcons haven't been good on defense for any meaningful stretch of regular-season time under Dan Quinn, and Cam Newton is already struggling with a foot injury. It's not out of the question that the South fails to test New Orleans in 2019, which would leave the Saints in great shape to approach 13 wins again. This time, they'll have a pass interference review waiting.
Chance to win Super Bowl LIV: 15.2%
Chance to make the playoffs: 86,4%
Caesars Super Bowl odds: +650
The Patriots are the defending Super Bowl champions and face the easiest schedule in the league, per FPI and Football Outsiders. They can win the Super Bowl by continuing to be the Patriots.
Chance to win Super Bowl LIV: 15.5%
Chance to make the playoffs: 82.8%
Caesars Super Bowl odds: +600
The Patriots aren't the favorites, though, as the Chiefs return every important piece of their offense and upgraded on defense by acquiring pass-rusher Frank Clark and safety Tyrann Mathieu. We know the Chiefs can beat the Patriots, given that Alex Smith led Kansas City to a victory over the Pats in New England during Week 1 in 2017, but you also figure that Kansas City's best chance of winning a Super Bowl involves some other team dispatching the Patriots.
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Since we're here at the end, let's dream out a little scenario. The Chiefs go 12-4 but lose in the regular season to the Patriots, who also go 12-4 and claim home-field advantage in the AFC. The Chiefs host and beat the Texans in the divisional round, but when it looks like Kansas City's about to head to Foxborough, the Chiefs are saved by an upset win from the same Jaguars team that dominated the Pats in 2018 and came within a quarter of beating them in New England in the 2017 AFC Championship Game.
That leaves the Chiefs at home for the AFC Championship Game and a matchup of Nick Foles against Andy Reid, the head coach who saved Foles' career. Just for fun, let's say that the Chiefs advance and face the Eagles in the Super Bowl, giving us Reid vs. protégé Doug Pederson and an organization which still has Reid's fingerprints all over it after a 14-year stint as head coach. Could be fun, right?
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