How Beto will change the race of 2020

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On Wednesday night, Beto O 'Rourke said that he was running for the 2020 Democratic presidential election. "Amy and I decided on the best way to serve our country," said O & # 39; Rourke in a statement. "We are excited to share it soon with everyone."

This statement was accompanied by leaks from sources close to O'Rourke that he would not challenge Republican Senator John Cornyn for the Texas Senate in 2020. This leaves the race for president virtually unchallenged. option for Beto.

As I was writing some time ago, O 'Rourke would be crazy not to run for president in 2020. He is the most enthusiastic candidate in what could be a GIANT democratic field and, if he managed the race by 2020, it was unclear whether the enthusiasm it engenders among many party activists will continue over the next four or eight years.

So, what does Ore Rourke specifically make the bid for the Democratic field now? Absolutely certain, but you can never say absolutely, until he announces his candidacy. Here are my first thoughts:

1. It speeds up Joe Biden's decision-making process. O & # 39; Rourke, based on the first national polls and leading states, is a leading candidate. It is also someone who will lock up a group of important donors as well as coveted assets at both the national and state levels as soon as possible. What Biden can not pass is that O & # 39; Rourke continues to play a role too important before the former vice president officially enters the race.

2. It reduces the path for a black horse. With O & # 39; Rourke and Biden pretty sure to follow, we would have the four leaders – the two plus Bernie Sanders and Kamala Harris – all confirmed as candidates. This quartet represents an important part of the Democratic voters. Assuming that four, or three of the four, can maintain a level close to their current support level for the next year, this leaves an even smaller share of the cake for the Senses. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York or Sherrod Brown of Ohio or the former Mayor of San Antonio, Julian Castro.

3. This raises the financial bar for sustainability. O 'Rourke, on the basis of the $ 80 million (!) He's collected for his Senate candidacy in 2018, could well be the fundraising leader for the 2020 race in six months. He has a very generous, very active national donor list that is the envy of every candidate on this side of Sanders. With O 'Rourke (and his army of low-budget donors) in the race, you have a group of big fundraisers that includes Sanders, Biden, Harris ($ 15 million raised in 2016) and the Senator Massachusetts Elizabeth Warren (34 million dollars raised in 2018).

There are also other impacts on Beto. For starters: depending on how he chooses to position himself ideologically (his campaign in the Senate of 2018 was more of a matter of emotion than politics), he could invade the path of liberals or add another candidate to the sensitive center.

Point: The entry of O 'Rourke in the race is the most significant moment of the contest – and will probably remain so until Biden enters. (I might be convinced that O 'Rourke's inscription could have more immediate impacts than Biden's.) Presidential races – especially the largely open primaries – are as much a matter of momentum and energy than anything else. And O'Rourke has both shovels right now.

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