How do bettors play title games?

The beautiful story of Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the soaring Buffalo Bills in the second half did not move punters too much.

Bettors generally lean towards favorites and overs, and this is the case for both conference championship games. Kansas City Chiefs and Green Bay Packers get the majority of bets, According to BetMGM data analyst John Ewing. Overs are also preferred by punters.

It’s hard to bet against Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers, after all.

Packers, Chiefs are popular bets

Here are the wagering percentages on the side and the total for each Conference Championship game, via Ewing:

74% of bets on Packers -3.5
65% of bets on Packers-Bucs at 51.5
60% of bets on Chiefs -3.5
55% of Chiefs-Bills bets over 54.5

The most interesting piece might be the line movement on the NFC game.

Even though three-quarters of the bets land on the Packers, the line continues to move the other way. The Buccaneers were +4, then went down to +3.5 and they were +3 at some pounds by Sunday morning. This kind of reverse line movement indicates that lively and respected bettors are on the Buccaneers with the points.

The Packers were a heavyweight for the latter part of the season, especially on offense. But Brady and the Bucs were also very good. There’s a good reason sharps like Bucs are more than a field target.

Bettors expect a lot of points

The common theme between the games is quality quarterback play and efficient offenses.

Even though snow is expected in Green Bay and temperatures will be in the 1920s, punters still expect an offensive show between Brady and Rodgers. This is reflected in the number of excess bets.

The battle between Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes is another fun one, with the punters on the side despite a high total. Allen has played very well as the Bills have won nine of their last 10, including two in the playoffs. Mahomes comes out of a concussion and is bothered by a grass toe, but he’s still a great quarterback and the Kansas City offense can score hastily.

The NFL will have two excellent matchups to determine who plays Super Bowl LV. If the bettors are right, we’re about to see a lot of points on Sunday.