How Kawhi Leonard’s partially ripped ACL could affect his free agency outlook and next contract

When Kawhi Leonard initially joined the Los Angeles Clippers, he did so under a contract that only lasted two years with a player option for a third. It was a wise move, which perfectly balanced his financial and professional autonomy. The short duration of the deal held the Clippers accountable for their product on the pitch and meeting its demands off the pitch, but it sacrificed very little in terms of safety. Players like LeBron James and Kevin Durant have made year-long deals in the past to take full advantage of this organizational responsibility, but it has exposed them to a reasonable degree of financial risk. Leonard found a better balance.

In the short term, he secured $ 103 million … if he wanted. As a superstar in his prime, he surely believed that another max contract would be waiting for him at that point, and he wanted to maximize his value. He strategically placed the option after his 10th NBA season. When a player reaches 10 years of experience, they become eligible for the highest possible maximum contract, one that starts at 35% of the salary cap. This prize would be available not only for the Clippers, but also for opposing teams in free agency. If he had decided to leave the Clippers after two years, he would have done so without leaving too much money on the table.

If he wanted to stay with the Clippers, he still left himself several options. A four-year contract from that 35% figure would almost certainly be available to him, but if he wanted a fifth year on that contract, he could have secured one by staying with the Clippers for an extra season. Teams need full Bird rights to donate this fifth year, and it takes three years to earn those rights. Leonard could have reached this third year thanks to his player option. The deal, as a whole, gave Leonard the flexibility to pursue virtually any team or scenario he wished.

This flexibility still exists to some extent. We only have to look at Kevin Durant in 2019 to see how eager most teams are to sign injured superstars. A torn Achilles is far more dangerous than a partially torn ACL. Leonard will likely return to the floor at some point next season. Durant missed the entire 2019-2020 campaign. It didn’t matter. He was still arguably the best player in the NBA last season. Teams will expect the same from Leonard. The advantage of an MVP candidate is going to outweigh the risk of injury most of the time.

But that might not last forever, especially for a player with as many injuries under his belt as Leonard. He’s only played 70 games in one season twice in his career, a number that is unlikely to change next year. It’s still unclear exactly what drove him to play just nine games in the 2017-18 season as Spur, and the same mystery shrouded his knee injury during the playoffs before the Clippers took off. reveal his torn ACL following an operation. Players tend to become less durable as they age. Leonard could still be worth a max contract today. How many years and how many injuries will it take to change that? If he returns next season only to injure his knee again, will the contenders still be so keen to maximize him then?

That’s the question Leonard will need to answer before deciding what kind of contract to sign this offseason. If he had come out of the playoffs unscathed, the financial answer would have been obvious. If he had wanted to stay with the Clippers, the prudent path would have been to reconsider his option before securing the five-year maximum for the next offseason. Prior to this injury, there was little doubt about his influence to demand such a deal.

Now, it’s worth considering whether he’s willing to take such a risk, and what the financial ramifications might be in doing so. If he wants the security of a long-term deal now, it’s probably still available to him. The Clippers can use Leonard’s Early Bird rights to pay him his maximum on a four-year contract that includes eight percent annual increases. In total, such a deal could earn him up to $ 176 million below the planned cap of $ 112.4 million.

2021-22	$ 39,344,970
2022-23	$ 42,492,567
2023-24	$ 45,640,164
2024-25	$ 48,787,761
Total	$ 176,265,462

If Leonard wanted to leave the Clippers, he could do so with a very similar deal from another team. The only difference would be that the opposing team could only offer them five percent annual increases, lowering the total compensation to around $ 169 million.

2021-22	$ 39,344,970
2022-23	$ 41,312,218
2023-24	$ 43,279,466
2024-25	$ 45,246,714
Total	$ 169,183,368

That’s a lot of money, especially for a player like Leonard, who hasn’t won as much as you might think. Remember, he wasn’t a lottery pick, and he signed his rookie extension a year before the cap climbed in 2016. Either of the above deals would more than double his. Career earnings estimated at $ 149 million, but in theory that would also come back to go. quite a bit of money on the table.

If Leonard can keep his superstar standing for another year, his earning power is skyrocketing for a variety of reasons. The cap will increase again during the next off-season. He will become eligible for a fifth season on his contract and an eight percent raise that came with it last season. But perhaps more importantly, he will delay signing the contract for a year, essentially giving himself a sixth season.

It would cost him a bit in the short term. Early Bird free agents have to re-sign for at least two years, so if Leonard wanted to sign up for just one, he would have to choose that $ 36 million player option (the deadline would be August 1). That’s about $ 3.3million below his peak for next season, but he would more than make up for that loss at the back. Assuming the cap rises again 3% in the next offseason and signs a five-year high in 2022, Leonard could secure $ 271 million over the next six years. That’s almost $ 100 million more than he would get by signing a four-year contract now.

2021-22	$ 36,016,200
2022-23 (new agreement)	$ 40,525,319
2023-24	$ 43,767,344
2024-25	$ 47,009,369
2025-26	$ 50,251,394
2026-27	$ 53,493,419
Total	$ 271,063,045

There is a tipping point with injuries, however. It is not an exact science. Durant managed to get the maximum despite his torn Achilles. When DeMarcus Cousins ​​suffered the same injury, he was relegated from an almost automatic max player to one whose bids were low enough that he decided to take the middle tier exception from Golden State. This tipping point relies on hundreds of variables. How old is the player? What is his style of play? How many other injuries has he suffered? Is it good when it is healthy?

But it does exist, and leg injuries tend to snowball. Just ask Klay Thompson how relieved he is to have locked up a maximum of five years when he only had to worry about a ripped ACL. If he had hit free agency after tearing his Achilles apart, such an offer might not have been available to him. As far as we know, a similar injury could have such an impact on Leonard’s market value.

This is what he will have to weigh this offseason. Is he ready to bet on his own health and hit the jackpot? Will he play it safe and lock down the safe thing? Or will it continue to favor flexibility over short-term agreements?

There are credible arguments on all sides. Remember, the Clippers gave up Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and five first-round picks just to secure Leonard’s signing. They’re there for a dime, they might as well stay for a pound no matter the risk. They will still be capped and will not have the assets to exchange for a replacement. Their only path to a championship for the foreseeable future involves Leonard. He knows it. He can extort them accordingly.

But different players have different risk appetites. We know so little about Leonard’s priorities that guessing them would be pure speculation. The last time he ventured into free will, he tried to find the right balance between risk and reward. His personal risk level has increased dramatically since that injury. It’s just not clear how much of an impact this will have on the desired reward.