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While the US is debating adequate levels of immigration – and if, as President Trump has suggested, there is still plenty of room for this – new census data show that international migration maintain population growth out of water in much of the country.
Although international migration declined in 2017 and 2018, it accounted for almost half of the overall US population growth in 2018, as a result of the declining birth rate and rising mortality.
International migration has helped rural countries to record their second consecutive year of growth, according to local population estimates for 2018 published by the Census Bureau on Thursday. And immigrants have strengthened urban counties that have lost residents to more affordable areas. Despite this, the three largest metropolitan areas of America – New York, Los Angeles and Chicago – have all declined slightly.
Without these international movements, 44% of the country's population would be in declining counties, instead of the current 27%. Dense urban counties and sparsely populated rural areas, although generally on the opposite side of the political spectrum, share the economic concerns of declining population.
In rural America in particular, Reducing populations can lead to a vicious circle, leading to the bankruptcy of local businesses and the departure of young people looking for opportunities, imposing local services on people who still have a small tax base.
Some small communities have made as much progress in international migration as a percentage of world magnets.
The metropolitan areas where international migration contributed the most to growth in 2018 include Miami's large and diversified metros; Orlando, Florida .; and San Jose, California. But this growth has been competing with academic cities such as Brookings (State of South Dakota), Pullman (Washington State), Ames (State of Iowa) and Champaign-Urbana (University of Illinois). ;Illinois), center of Huron, S.D., and Transcendental Meditation Center of Fairfield, Iowa.
Although it is an eclectic list of places, the geographical distribution is clear. International migration contributes more to population growth in larger metros than in smaller ones or in rural areas – and especially in the dense urban counties of the big metros. These urban counties lose their population due to internal migration, as travel to the United States tends to be outside of dense urban counties and suburbs or smaller subways.
In 2018, the growth of these areas has slowed to reach its lowest rate since 2006, just before the collapse of real estate. These urban counties rebounded in the following years to a peak in 2011 and 2012 that looked like a demographic reversal of the long-time suburbs of America. But then the growth of urban counties slowed down and, in fact, was not as impressive as thought about the origin. The latest census data have downgraded previous estimates of urban growth.
Americans leave urban counties as a whole, while rising house prices and inadequate construction push people to suburban counties, subways and more affordable subways.
In total, nine of the 51 metros of more than one million people lost their lives in 2018. Ten more metros, such as Miami, Boston and San Francisco, reportedly lost the population without international migration. And, for the first time since 2007, the population growth rate in major metros has fallen below that of medium-sized metros.
But it's not just big cities. Counties outside metropolitan areas – mainly small towns and rural areas – draw and lose about the same numbers of internal migration. But because of their older local populations, deaths were almost equivalent to births in non-metropolitan counties. Although international migration has contributed less to population growth in rural counties than elsewhere, international migration has contributed more in rural counties than internal migration or natural increase.
According to the latest estimates, lagging rural America would be optimized, with 2018 posting population growth for the second year in a row, and at a faster pace than in 2017. This acceleration of rural growth has resulted in the Americans living in declining counties – which rose sharply from 14% in 2010 to 30% in 2017 – dropped to 27% in 2018. This aid, too, came from international migration.
Jed Kolko is the chief economist at Indeed.com. You can follow him on Twitter at @JedKolko.
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