How many large companies are agreeing with Trump on interest rates? Not one



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Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell

Saul Loeb | AFP | Getty Images

Before the trade war took control of the markets, President Trump against the Federal Reserve was the most important battle with the ability to create or break stocks.

Some market experts speculate that if Dow's plunge provoked by the outbreak of the trade war between the United States and China continues to weigh on the wealth of Americans, it would go against the old goal of pushing the Fed to further reduce its rates.

But the market itself – the listed companies that represent billions of dollars in stock market value – will not line up to support further Fed rate cuts, according to a recent CNBC survey.

CNBC has asked CFOs of some of the largest companies in the United States and around the world to agree with Trump on the need to further reduce current interest rates. Not a single US-based CFO endorsed Trump's view for further rate reduction, and overall only 4% of CFOs agreed with Trump's position on Fed policy .

CNBC's Global Council of Chief Financial Officers represents some of the world's largest public and private companies, collectively managing a market value of nearly $ 5 trillion in a wide range of industries. The survey for the second quarter of 2019 was held from April 23 to 30 with 45 board members.

Globally, 69% of CFOs said that interest rates were "about right"; 24% said rates were "too low;" and only 4% said the rates were "too high".

The percentage of CFOs expecting the Fed to take no action on rates for the remainder of 2019 jumped from 30% in the first quarter to 69% in the second quarter. The percentage that is still expected to rise in rates has gone from over 40% to 22%, while only 2% of CFOs indicated that they thought a rate cut would be imminent before the end of the year.

If the surge in trade turns into a protracted trade war and the Chinese economy collapses, and consumer prices in the United States rise so much that the pain is severe at home, a reassessment can to prove necessary. Financial managers surveyed raised their view of the Chinese economy from "declining" to "stable" in the second quarter survey.

However, the CFOs interviewed by CNBC also said that it was not necessary to end tariffs to end the trade war.

CFOs, like almost everyone else, may have been surprised by the sudden change in what appeared to be a trade war that was about to end. In the survey, only 10% of US CFOs said that the trade war was the biggest risk their company faced. But more (15%) said China was their main external risk factor.

One of the most complicated elements of the Fed's policy is inflation, which has been below the Fed's target of 2%, but that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell recently described as a "transitional" type of low inflation.

Friday morning, Trump tweeted during business meetings with China in California and the latest consumer price index data, "Really good, very low inflation! We have a great chance to" switch! "

US consumer prices rose in April, but underlying inflation remained subdued, suggesting that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates unchanged for some time.

Note: The CNBC Global CFO Council survey for the second quarter ran from April 23 to 30, 2019. Of the 124 global members, 45 responded to the survey (20 in North America, 15 in North America and 10 in Asia Peaceful).

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