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The presidential election will likely come down to six key states, all of which allow voters to request mail-in ballots without excuse.
Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where President Trump
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However, not all of them have the infrastructure or the experience to handle the high volume of mail ballots. Problems include the lack of staff at polling stations and the fact that the deadline on the books for submitting a ballot by mail does not necessarily coincide with the ability of the postal service to have the ballot delivered on time. .
President Trump, who won all six states in 2016, has repeatedly criticized postal voting, suggesting it leads to more fraud. There’s no evidence that mail voting increases fraud, but Trump’s repeated attacks have made it a more partisan issue.
Here’s where the six swing states fall on postal voting.
Florida
Voters in Florida have been able to vote by mail without having to cite an excuse since 2002. Trump, who changed his residence from New York to Florida last year, used Florida’s postal voting system.
Florida Secretary of State Laurel M. Lee (right) told reporters Tuesday the combined turnout was “above average” at the state’s primary this week. She said in-person voting was “light to medium” with an increase in postal ballots compared to previous elections.
The increase in postal voting coincided with the first preliminary results for most of the primary races contested.
“Today was not the finish line,” said Lee. “We still have a lot of work to do to prepare for the presidential election in November, to ensure that voters are registered and informed of their voting options.”
Florida has more experience with postal voting than some other swing states. In 2018, 30.9% of voters in Florida voted by mail, according to the Election Assistance Commission.
Election officials in Florida do not begin counting ballots until the polls close on Election Day.
Trump narrowly won Florida’s 29 electoral votes in 2016, but recent polls show Biden to be slightly ahead.
Arizona
The majority of Arizona voters have already voted by mail in previous elections, which has got them used to the process, according to Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs (D).
She announced in March that the state was sending postal ballot requests to all registered voters who are not already on the state’s permanent voting list by mail.
“We are fortunate in Arizona to have had postal voting for a long time, so the infrastructure to conduct mass mail voting is already in place,” Hobbs said during a webinar hosted by the Tuesday. ‘Democratic Association of Secretaries. of state.
According to Hobbs, 78% of 2018 midterm voters chose to vote early. In the August primaries, 88% did so. She expects early voting and general turnout to increase in November as well.
“We have to be very diligent in continuing to disseminate information about how this system works,” Hobbs said.
Like virtually every other state in this election cycle, Arizona faces a potential shortage of election workers and volunteers. In previous years, election officers were only able to work at polling stations in the county in which they resided, although the state changed its laws to allow election officers to be deployed throughout the country. State.
Arizona election officials begin counting ballots two weeks before election day.
Trump won Arizona’s 11 electoral votes by 4 percentage points in 2016, although Biden narrowly leads in recent polls.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin’s 3.4 million registered voters have been able to request a postal vote without providing an excuse for years.
In May, the Wisconsin Election Commission approved a plan to send postal ballot requests to more than 2.7 million registered voters.
The turnout for presidential elections in Wisconsin hovers around 3 million, election officials told The Hill. In 2016, 819,316 voters in Wisconsin voted in favor of absentees, but less than 18% of those absent voters did so by mail.
Most postal votes in previous years were taken at the city clerk’s office in the weeks leading up to the election, not by mail.
In April, 1.1 million of the 1.55 million ballots cast in state primaries were cast by mail. As of this week, there are already over 800,000 postal ballot requests on file for November.
Wisconsin election officials begin counting ballots after the polls open on election day. Having to process these mail-in ballots in a short period of time has led municipalities to rent or purchase additional voting machines to feed the mail-in ballots, while in-person voters still use the ballots. other machines, the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reported.
Trump narrowly won all 10 Wisconsin constituency votes in 2016.
Michigan
Registered voters in Michigan have always had to request ballot forms by mail, but this year Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) sent out all requests for registered voters ahead of the primary elections to August and November.
Benson told a webinar hosted by the Democratic Association of Secretaries of State Tuesday that Michigan expected 1.5 million citizens to vote by mail for the first time in November.
Bensen said in the August primaries more than 10,000 postal ballots were rejected, of which 6,000 were postmarked on primary day but received the next day. Trump won Michigan by 10,704 votes in 2016, she noted.
Because of this, Bensen’s office called on the state legislature to change the laws so that the state could accept postmarked ballots on election day. In the meantime, she urges voters to submit their ballots early.
“If that doesn’t change and nothing else changes, we are faced with a scenario where we may have to reject a number of otherwise valid votes that are delayed through no fault of the voter … and this number could exceed the margin of victory in any number of races, ”said Bensen.
In 2018, 24.3% of Michigan voters voted by mail, according to the Election Assistance Commission. As of this week, 2.5 million people in Michigan have registered to vote by mail, Bensen said.
Michigan election officials can begin counting the ballots at any time on election day.
North Carolina
The North Carolina general assembly changed its laws this year to allow only one witness signature instead of two on mail-in ballots.
North Carolina election officials told The Hill they expected 30 to 40 percent of voters who cast their ballot to vote by mail in 2020. In 2016, only 4.2 percent of voters voted by mail.
Like in Michigan, election officials are urging voters to mail their ballots before the deadline on the books.
“The deadline set 40 years ago hasn’t been realistic for years,” Wake County Election Council Commissioner Gerry Cohen tweeted. “Voters will have the best success if they receive a request for absence in (their) county by October 15.”
North Carolina ballots received in the mail after polling day will not be counted until they are received by 5 p.m. on the third day after the election and are postmarked on the day of the election. ballot or before. North Carolina election officials begin counting ballots two weeks before election day.
Trump won North Carolina in 2016 by 3.6 percentage points and won all 15 votes from the state’s electoral colleges.
Pennsylvania
Most Pennsylvania voters who participated in the June 2 primary did so by mail, delaying the results, the Philadelphia Inquirer reported.
An Inquirer analysis found that thousands of ballots were not counted because they arrived too late. Only 76% of the ballots mailed in the three weeks before the election were counted, according to the newspaper.
The Pennsylvania State Department released a report this month asking the Legislature to require counties to distribute mail-in ballots earlier. Election officials must begin mailing ballots to voters no later than 14 days before an election, but the ministry has now recommended 28 days.
Secretary of State Kathy Boockvar announced on July 31 that she would provide postage-paid envelopes to mailed voters using money allocated by Congress in the CARES Act.
Boockvar said she expects up to half of the state’s voters to vote by mail in November. In 2018, only 3.7% of voters in the state voted by mail, according to the Electoral Assistance Commission.
Trump won Pennsylvania by less than a percentage point in 2016 and his 20 electoral votes were crucial to his victory.
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