How the image of the playoffs has already changed

As baseball writers, we are forced to start every April article with "It's still early", is so early. Bryce Harper has a .500 average, Chris Sale has an average of 8.00 and the Mariners are ready to win 142 games. As the Mets from last year – you remember, those who won 11 of their first 12 games, then a dozen less than .500 – there are so many things that can and will happen .

The fact is that you should not worry too much about individual player statistics. But it's not too early to start looking at what the team's winning / losing records are doing until the end of the season. It's not that the 2-6 Red Sox are guaranteed to have a losing season, of course, as they are very good and should still be contenders. But, despite what the end-of-season story tells you, a match in April counts as much as a match in September. It may sound different. But it's still one of the 162.

However, even a week of games has changed the odds, especially for teams that have experienced particularly fast or slow starts, or who play in divisions where both things have happened.

We can also show you what it looks like. On FanGraphs, they maintain daily odds in series, based on "the current leaderboard, the remaining calendar, [and] the projected performance of the team, "all averages averaged after 10,000 simulations.This is not a perfect prediction, because nothing can be. Consider it more like" an enlightened speculation ".

Looking at the difference between March 19th and Friday morning, we can see what has changed. In some cases, not much. In some cases, a lot.

Again, we do not watch much of the season. But it's better to win games than do not win games, right? Last season, the Cubs and Brewers were tied at 95-67 at the top of the National Central League, requiring a tiebreaker. And the Dodgers and the Rockies are tied at 91-71 at the top of the NL West, which requires a tiebreaker. In 2017, the Rockies beat the Brewers of a Wild Card slot of a match. The Red Sox beat the AL East Yankees in two games. Every game really matters.

What's interesting in the graph above, is that there is a decent correlation between the record of losses earned so far, but not perfect. That is to say that the Orioles took a surprising start of 4-1 and that their chances did not falter even before two defeats. That's because they're always supposed to be a non-candidate, while any reasonable fan would always expect the Yankees, the Red Sox and the Rays to outperform them. Meanwhile, the Twins took a 4-1 start and their chances jumped 10 points as the only other competitor in their division, Cleveland, stumbled.

Twenty-one teams did not see their odds change more than six points back and forth, as might be expected. There is only so a lot of damage you can do in a week.

Let's try to explain the other nine.

SIX ON THEIR ROAD

+20 points (28 to 48%), spokes

The rays are for real. After all, they have won 90 games in 2018, despite losing 13 of their first 17 games. They are now starting at 5-2 (they could very well have been 6-1 if they had managed to convert a first and third with an exit in a ninth goalless run on Wednesday). Obviously, it helps to know that the Red Sox and the Yankees have started slowly, and that Blake Snell and José Alvarado are leading what seems to be an excellent staff.

But that figure of 48% is still barely 50/50, of course, and we're just talking about doing the playoffs, not winning the division (9%). The two big animals in the East are still standing.

+16 points (28% to 44%), Brewers

Good start, no? Six wins in seven games, thanks in part to Christian Yelich, who kept the MVP pace of last season. The reason this number seems a little low is simply because the NL is full of teams vying for playoff spots. There is a reason why only one team, the Dodgers, has a qualification rating of over 85%. Again, the Brewers are currently the only NL core team exceeding .500.

+10 points (48% to 58%), Phillies

You may have noticed that the Phillies had won four of their first five games, but it is equally important to do it directly against their divisional rivals in Atlanta and Washington. It's great to win games. It is also interesting to lose your immediate competitors games. Philadelphia is now a 60/40 bet to make the playoffs, and that number could continue to rise.

+10 points (40% to 50%), Mets

The Mets are 5-2 after losing to the Nationals on Thursday, and again, they started 11-1 last season. No fan base should know that a good start guarantees nothing. However, this gives you a little more track, which pushes them to a 50/50 playoff throw. It's a coin. This is more than a lot of teams have.

+10 points (36% to 46%), twins

Minnesota hit only one home run, but they won four of their first five after surprisingly strong shots. In this case, the chances of the Twins winning a Wild Card have increased little (four points), but their chances of winning the division have increased by almost eight points, or 29%. It's because they won and Cleveland – partly because of a season opener with the Twins – did not do it.

+7 points (2 to 9%), browsers

Sailors' fans will not like it, and we understand it. They are 7-1! They have the best baseball record! What has been done is that their chances of playing in the playoffs are virtually non-existent, which seems good. If this figure is not bigger, it's that the good start has not changed the opinions on talent, perhaps outside Tim Beckham or Domingo Santana. Continue like this, and the numbers will move in favor of Seattle.

THREE BEGIN

-12 points (20% to 8%), angels

Losing six of your first seven is a problem, of course. It's the same for Justin Upton for weeks or months because of a foot injury, which hurts your predictions. The Angels were already struggling to qualify for the playoffs, with the Astros in their division and the Yankees or Red Sox widely expected to qualify for the Wild Cards. Start the good starts with Rays and Twins, and you'll understand why this is 9-1 against.

-16 points (90% to 74%), Red Sox

It should be noted that 74% of the chances of participating in the playoffs are still very good. This is the fourth best in the American League. But it was also hard to describe the opening of the Red Sox season as a disaster, thanks to six losses in eight games. the Chris Sale's ongoing speed concerns may not focus directly on projections, but they are hard to ignore. That being said, it's still the same composition that won the World Series last season. They have not even had a home game yet. They will be fine. Probably.

-18 points (64% to 46%), Cubs

PECOTA, the Baseball Prospectus projection system, said the Cubs would finish in the final center of the NL. This will probably not happen and is more indicative of a division that has five competitive teams than anything else. But it is difficult to say that the beginnings do much to alleviate these concerns, especially with a pen that does not seem to be able to get anyone out. A projection of the odds of playing in the playoffs by 46% remains a coin, which is not bad in a loaded LN. But that's not the beginning that they wanted, of course.