How the presidential dreams of Kirsten Gillibrand unfolded

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Senator Kirsten Gillibrand was in a stalemate.

Less than three weeks away from the deadline for the fall presidential debates – which she deemed essential to keep her campaign alive – she was on the right track to fall short. She had neither the 130,000 donors she needed nor the support she needed for the polls. What she had, it was a stock of money. For example, in a whim of Hail Mary, she spent $ 1.5 million on a two-week television commercial in the doldrums of August to improve her numbers in Iowa and New Hampshire. .

"The alternative of not participating in the competition," said Glen Caplin, one of Gillibrand's leading advisers, "was not a viable alternative."

The bet would be a last miscalculation. If the advertisements caused a visible lump of Gillibrand, it would not have been detected: no poll of Iowa or New Hampshire likely to qualify it was even organized after the diffusion of its advertisements. On Wednesday, a few hours before the deadline, Ms. Gillibrand withdrew.

"It's important to know when it's not your time," Ms. Gillibrand said. said in a video announcing his decision.

Ms. Gillibrand said in an interview that she did not know what was the missing piece of her application. "I do not know," she says. "My campaign may have been ahead of its time."

Little seemed click this year for Ms. Gillibrand.

Its launch was eclipsed by the publication of the first extracts of the Mueller report, a development it could not have planned.

Yet she was also prone to self-inflicted injuries. At a fundraiser in Boston, Ms. Gillibrand, desperate for donors, asked a group of women to contact people on their Christmas cards and school parents lists to ask for a donation. $ 1 to help start the debate, according to a participant. who said she was repelled by the implication that the women gathered did not have any professional backgrounds.

Bearly August, the downward trajectory was obvious. Senator Kamala Harris of California was crossing Iowa on a leather bus with her campaign logo on it. A second bus of journalists and helpers trailed behind.

Mrs. Gillibrand's campaign had ordered a small RV with her campaign sign slapped to one side; her husband was driving.

It attracted few people (Andrew Yang, a first-time candidate, advanced his weekend rally at a rainy night this spring, both events were held in Manhattan) . She failed to gain significant support (only one member of the New York Congress supported her).

And she was plagued by questions about her past. Her prominent role as the first Democratic senator to call for Al Franken's resignation throughout the campaign. Voters and reporters periodically referred to it during the election campaign. Democratic donors and social media posters denouncing her. And Ms. Gillibrand's case included policy reversals to which liberal cable hosts and others had drawn attention, such as her previous support for gun rights and her opposition to "amnesty for immigrants illegal immigrants "- pleading hard for progressors concerned with purity and coherence.

His exact ideological attitude may be elusive. Was she the member of the North State Congress who overthrew a heavily Republican seat more than a decade ago? Or the Liberal torch that has rejected almost all of President Trump's candidates?

"There is a false debate in the party right now," Gillibrand said at a recent meeting. Washington Post event. "Either you have to be an ultra-progressive who can inspire the base, or you have to be a moderate who wins those red and purple areas. I think you have to do both. And my application is at a time. "

Ms. Gillibrand never managed to take off and, at the end of her candidacy, she began to invest more and more money in Facebook ads, looking for donors who offered losing offers, such as than t-shirts for a dollar. She spent $ 2.8 million on the site. This is double what she collected from all donors who gave her less than $ 200 until the end of June.

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In total, she spent more than $ 20 on Facebook for each contributor to her campaign. She finished with less than 130,000 donors and less than $ 800,000 in campaign funds.

"Exorbitant expectations for his candidacy were also a handicap," said Jon Reinish, a former assistant to Ms. Gillibrand. "When she did not shoot at the top right away, the perception game became an albatross, she could not shake anymore."

Ms. Gillibrand's candidacy did not have a good start. She had a big booking on her first full day in the race, a place on Rachel Maddow's much-loved show on MSNBC. The show is normally a friendly space for Democrats, but Ms. Maddow thanked Ms. Gillibrand for her "transformation". "She got the A grade from the NRA," said Maddow, referring to Ms. Gillibrand's ten years. positions. "She said that she wanted to make English the official language of the United States."

This would be Mrs. Gillibrand's only appearance on the Maddow show. But it was the first of many interviews devoted to questions about his file.

She became so adept at apologizing for her previous positions – at her disadvantage, firearms and immigration became two crucial issues of the Democratic primary – that she tried to turn that skill into an asset, into comparing favorably to the lack of contrition, the signature of Mr. Trump. However, she did not concede anything about Mr. Franken, stating that he was not entitled to "silence" after several credible charges of sexual misconduct were brought against him.

"She really paved the way for a shameless feminism," said Ilyse Hogue, chair of the NARAL abortion rights advocacy group. But, Hogue added, "those who are the most ferocious and who choose to live with deep-rooted misogyny are rarely rewarded."

Ms. Hogue said that the Franken episode had sometimes "overshadowed her campaign," but she predicted that "history will show that what she was doing was in the country's best interest."

Mrs. Gillibrand's campaign had made the early bet that she could win little by little over a small audience in the lounges of Iowa and New Hampshire. His $ 10 million Senate war chest provided him with a financial cushion to pursue this strategy. But the first eight months of the 2020 race have shown the national narrative that is played on social media and on television. This dynamic began to lead the first states, not the reverse.

"I did not see her present as I knew it so well," said L. Joy Williams, President of Brooklyn N.A.A.C.P. and a Democratic strategist. "I do not know why to be honest with you."

His campaign failed to align his main supporters in New York, from party officials to congressional activists. A dinner planned for New York lawmakers at her home in Washington was canceled. Some New York donors said that they wrote him a check, but refused to organize fundraisers for her. Charlie King, a member of the Democratic National Committee of New York who is not aligned in the 2020 race, said that he had never heard from Ms. Gillibrand or anyone else of her team.

"I've heard about several other campaigns," King said. "Several times."

The lack of support from Gillibrand, a small funder – the lifeblood of democratic fundraising – was evident from the start. Until June, she had reached 2,500 donations in just one day; Senator Elizabeth Warren, on the other hand, was over 100 days old.

In May, Ms. Gillibrand's campaign began at breaking ties with Anne Lewis Strategies, the political firm where she led $ 5.6 million in 2017 and 2018, in part, to create a list of digital supporters. Few of these people have become 2020 donors.

A few months later, Mrs. Gillibrand was bleeding. In the second quarter, it spent nearly $ 2 million more than it had raised – by far the worst ratio of all candidates who did not fund their race.

The rival campaigns took note. In private, some began to debate that it would be too early to try to recruit some of the talents gathered by Ms. Gillibrand at her Troy, N.Y. headquarters.

Ms. Gillibrand had some good points. She sipped whiskey with voters, dressed drag-queens in Des Moines, followed spin classes all over the place and fought with a student from Iowa. His team quickly incorporated these vignettes into videos posted online.

Gillibrand's campaign knew that the second debate was her last, her best shot to break through. And they thought they had found the perfect solution to attacking the leader and former vice president, Joseph R. Biden Jr .: his opposition to a child tax credit in 1980.

But Mrs. Gillibrand telegraphed the attack a few days before the debate. So, Mr. Biden came prepared for his premeditated wrap, dismissing his questions on his women's advocacy case as being solely motivated by the fact that she was standing against him.

"At the time when she tried to go on the offensive during the second debate, it was unfortunately too late to speak," said Mr Reinish, his former assistant.

Ms. Gillibrand received her first qualifying poll of 2% shortly thereafter, which helped inspire the unfortunate blitz. His advisers had hoped that more eligible polls would inspire more informed donors to participate.

In recent weeks, his campaign filled with inboxes with money requests up to three times a day. Gloria Steinem even signed e – mails asking for money more than once. The t-shirts were sold for $ 1.

"At this point, it's now or never," pleaded Monday the Gillibrand campaign.

It would be his last day on the track. She took a spinning class near San Francisco, canceled fundraising events in Southern California and then returned to New York, where she snuggled with her family on Tuesday night.

"I went home and talked to my husband, my two boys. We had a very, very thoughtful and wonderful conversation about the role of the public service, "she said. "And this mom is dedicated to serving others or in any role. "

On Wednesday, she announced the news to Troy's staff in person. They ended the night together at the bar drinking whiskey.

Alex Burns contributed to the report

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