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In the first half of the match between Ohio State and the 11th state of Michigan on Sunday, the Buckeyes seemed more than capable of getting angry. After leading most of the first game of the season against the Spartans before suffering a defeat, they once again took the advantage at half-time, retaining a six-point advantage this time.
But early in the second period, Michigan State quickly tied the score. At 7:40 of the end, Judge Jackson hit a 3-pointer to tie the score at 42 points each. It was the last goal of the Buckeyes match. The Spartans then went on a 20-2 run and had a 62-44 victory.
Consider the upset opportunity of the wasted Ohio State. Nevertheless, the long-term goals of the team remain intact.
Despite the lowest total points in the program for almost 10 years and the worst offensive performance since KenPom.com was founded 18 years ago, the Buckeyes still have a solid chance to become a team of NCAA tournament. They are downright on the bubble and right for the moment.
This does not mean that Chris Holtmann will discuss the possibility of going on the field with his team.
"We will not talk about it," Holtmann said following the Ohio State's defeat against Illinois on Thursday. "We will talk about improving ourselves. Many teams would like to be in the bubble, including the one we played tonight. I think for us, right now, our goal is not the bubble or anything like that. Our goal is to improve, improve and grow. It's our goal as coaches. "
During his weekly radio show Monday, Holtmann said he "would spend some time watching" tournament screenings in a week or two if the Buckeyes were in position. Following the defeat against Illini, he admitted he was entering the season, he hoped his team would be up to the situation, so talking about the bubble did not bother him.
A victory over Michigan State or Illinois would certainly have helped, each for different reasons, the positioning of the Ohio tournament but the Buckeyes can do nothing to change these results. So, let's see where they are and what to do to get into the field.
Where they stand
Most projections indicate that the Ohio State is ranked ninth, 10th or 11th out of a total of 68. Bracket Matrix, which includes 119 brackets, ranks the Buckeyes as the ninth seed, averaging 9.39. in all slices. Only one of the 119 media collected by Bracket Matrix gets them out of the NCAA tournament.
Although the Buckeyes have certainly made their course more difficult by dropping a home game against Illinois and missing what seemed like a half chance, they are in a good position to win an auction.
Ohio State is 16-9 overall and 6-8 in the Big Ten, placing the team eighth in the conference. He had a record of 12-1 out of conference, which allowed a little room for maneuver with losses in conference.
The Buckeyes are no longer No. 1 in the NET ranking, as when the first publication of its ratings in the fall, but they are still valued by the metric that replaced the RPI. They are n ° 44 in the NET ranking, n ° 38 in KenPom, n ° 35 in the Sagarin ratings and n ° 44 in the KPI ranking, which all correspond to rankings taken into account by the selection committee.
Until the defeat against Illinois, all losses of the Ohio State were in quadrant 1 or quadrant 2.
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Quadrant 1: 4-6 record with wins against Cincinnati, Nebraska, Indiana and Creighton and losses against Michigan State (twice), Michigan, Purdue, Iowa and Maryland
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Quadrant 2: 3-2 record with wins against Minnesota, Illinois and Penn State and losses to Syracuse and Rutgers.
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Quadrant 3: 4-1 record with wins against Rutgers, UCLA, Samford and Bucknell and a defeat against Illinois.
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Quadrant 4: 5-0: victory over Purdue Fort Wayne, High Point, Youngstown, Cleveland and South Carolina
Although Ohio State's off-conference program seemed solid enough to start the season, it was relatively weak. The non-conference part of the program ranks 129th in the country, and its overall strength is 47th, reinforced by the strength of the Big Ten.
Still, the win of the season against the Bearcats outside the conference is the team's best win this season.
Recently, the Buckeyes have covered important sections during games and weeks during the season when they did not look like an NCAA tournament team. They went 1-6 in January and lost two straight games after a series of three straight wins. That could hurt them in the eyes of the selection committee, so they have to finish the season in style.
What's left
The rest of the state of Ohio can be considered in two ways. Either there are many difficult confrontations to win against ranked teams, or it offers many opportunities for important CV boosters. Whatever the case may be, the home stretch will determine the final result of the team season and determine if it can reach the NCAA tournament.
The Buckeyes have four games against the remaining 25 top teams, as well as a round-trip series with Northwestern, the penultimate place of the Big Ten.
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February 20 vs Northwest (12-13, 3-11 Big Ten)
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February 23 at number 24 Maryland (19-7, 10-5 Big Ten)
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February 26 vs No. 21 Iowa (20-5, 9-5 Big Ten)
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March 2 at No. 15 Purdue (18-7, 11-3 Big Ten)
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March 6th at Northwestern (12-13, 3-11 Big Ten)
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March 10 vs No. 22 Wisconsin (18-8, 10-5 Big Ten)
Could the state of Ohio register without sweeping the two games against the Wildcats? May be. But there is no reason to discover the difficult way. These two games can be considered as matches to win, because of the level of difficulty of the other four opponents.
Facing the Northwest on the road is a Quadrant-2 game and facing the Wildcats at home is a Quadrant-3 match. The Buckeyes have just suffered a defeat in Quadrant 3 against Illinois and can not afford another. The games against each of the other four teams will consist of Quadrant-1 matches and a win against any of them, but the Hawkeyes will replace the win against Cincinnati as the best performance from the Ohio State this season.
The Buckeyes are already two games under .500 in the Big Ten. In order to try their luck at the NCAA tournament, they will likely have to beat the Northwestern twice and win one or two more regular season games.
Two wins against the Wildcats and two wins against two other opponents to come would allow Ohio State to finish with an overall record of 20-11 and a record of 10-10 in conference. If the Buckeyes beat the North West on both occasions and are 1-3 in the other games, they would finish 19-12 with a 9-11 Big Ten record. That would not eliminate them outright, but would weaken their case, probably requiring at least two wins in the Big Ten tournament.
As a team on the bubble, there is a piece of the puzzle that is simply unknown to Ohio State. But to strengthen the tournament's position, the Buckeyes must end the season better than they have played recently, as they should be looking for imbalances and not risk being the victim of the northwestern beating.
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