How the Steelers could be in the top 10 of the NFL 2019 draft

The big exchanges occur in the NFL project. But how is this possible if everyone uses the same table to measure the value and that a simple arithmetic says that someone has lost the contract? The answer is simple They do not use the same graph. Teams that have many needs to fill or who can do it as late in the drafting of the project will assign a very different value to very large choices compared to a team looking for a star or a shot at a QB franchise. The well-known Jimmy Johnson NFL temporary graph of commercial value examines transactions from the point of view of stars. To see the other side, you have to look at the darker side Harvard NFL Career Value Charter.

This article tries to explain how these different graphics allow the Steelers to figure in the Top 10 much more viable than most people think, and why a Top 10 team might be eager to compel. I will look at two scenarios to show how it works. The first is a hypothetical (and somewhat far-fetched) mega-trade in which the New York Jets trade their entire project in exchange for the Steelers. I want to say at the outset that I doubt that this one is realistic without much tweaking, but the resulting false project could not better illustrate the problem. The Jets are killed on Johnson's board, win a clear victory on the Harvard board and, of course, leave with a much better draft class than the team would get while standing. If nothing else, the exercise proves that the Harvard approach makes a lot of sense and that Jets fans should value potential deals from this angle.

The second, more limited, exchange is an exchange in which the Detroit Lions give up their only choice at 1:08 in exchange for Steelers' choices at 1:20, 3:19 and 5:02. Again, the resulting model gives the two teams more of what they want than to stay upright.

The bottom line is: Both trades make sense because both teams win; the Steelers from a Johnson Chart angle and the Jets and Lions from a POV from Harvard Chart. Pittsburgh gets this defensive Grade A superstar missing in both cases; New York would be able to fill the core of its list with starting talent in at least half a dozen essential positions; and Detroit would get a pretty good pass at 1:20 while adding two key selections in the rich Round 2-5 hunting grounds where his other targets reside.

Honestly, I think this discussion will duplicate what the three GM organizations are doing right now, as they start not-so-shy negotiations ahead of the next release. Read on and share your thoughts in the comments.

NOTE. I have done my best to represent each team's point of view as precisely as possible. C & # 39; do not an idle fancy trip, oriented Steelers. I grew up in the 1970s as a fan of Jets heroes like Emerson Boozer and later Joe Klecko, and I have absolutely nothing against the Lions. The needs of the team were obtained by consulting with our peers from Gang Green Nation and Pride of Detroit.

Jimmy Johnson's NFL Preliminary Commercial Value Chart

Jimmy Johnson was a very good football coach and a systematic thinker of football. He does not get away with it so easily – he still sold his soul services to one of the demons of the NFL[[[[I am going to tell you Cowboys…]- but it deserves the credit of building the first table I know that tries to give an idea of ​​the value of a selection of projects. Legend has it that he built the painting as a quick reference to master his instinct when offered a tempting exchange, but it has since become a monster he never wanted. At least in the hands of amateur designers like yours, who used it as a measure for who "won" a particular job. Here is a version that I have coded in color to illustrate the project choices involved for the Steelers, Jets and Lions, respectively:

Go back and think about it. Johnson set the value of choice # 1 (1:01) to three thousand (3,000) points and the value of the final choice (7:32) to one (1) point. Really? People in the Harvard Economics Department did not think so. They looked at Johnson's painting and said something like this:

It can not be right! For each Peyton Manning there is a Jamarcus Russell. Do you really think that you could filter the top ten careers of thirty thousand selections from the end of seventh and that they would be on average less good than the corresponding careers of ten random 1:01 types? No way! I could do better with UDFA alone!

We can all agree with that, but how to test it? And what would be a more precise approach?

The Harvard NFL Career Value Board

The math types started by building a complex metric (but pretty sound) that they called "Average career value" who examines completed careers, assigns value to various successes and failures, then overwrites them in one number. With that in hand, they drew each player's ACV never engaged against his draft position, and then built a competing table on that approach. And of course, they were right! The average LCA of a 1: 1 choice is, as expected, much higher than the end of the 7th LCA. But Outlook No. 1 is only sixteen times more productive than Mr. Irrelevants, not three thousand. Here is a color-coded copy of the Harvard map (standardized on a linear basis to include compensating selections and smooth an unexplained bump towards the end):

So, who is right? It depends on your point of view

Let's stop here for a moment to translate all this from Statistics into English. Both tables are "correct" because they measure different things.

Football is the ultimate team game and every player counts. It is a flatness that nobody would dispute. We also know that some are more important than others. RB1s deserve – and get – more money than CB3s, just as beginner QBs get more money than RB1s. But that does not change the reality but the real reality that counts, and it takes at least 30 to 40 players of grades B and C to complete a list. The Harvard card gives proper – and good – value for all these contributors. Jimmy Johnson's graph does not do it.

At the same time, the Harvard table does not recognize that a list of players with 20 C, 20 B and 13 A will win a lot more Super Bowls than a list of 53 B +. You can only play eleven men at a time. Thus, special gaming leaders really deserve – and get – much more money than mere contributors. As this fascinating article sums up so brilliantly the bottom line:

In fact, many of the best teams play a pretty dangerous game: the more you spend on your top 10 salaries, the better your team will perform … until you spend too much. [The magic number turns out to be around 60% FWIW]

Jimmy Johnson was trying to put a number on the extra value that an A + player assigns to the multiple Bs already on your list. The people of Harvard described how to create a team for the future. And this difference is why big trades work on both sides of the equation.

The Mega Trade – New York Jets and Pittsburgh Steelers swap rough drafts

The Jets have an alignment with a lot of Grade A players, but they are backed by a lot of C-grade talent. New York needs more than one potential star more than B + and B +. Heck, without exaggerating the problem, I will say that the team of my childhood could easily absorb 10 solid players instead of his talented fringe, and maybe another 5 to 10 players for a solid depth. Finding these men is the No. 1 target of the New York draft, not a player who will wait at 1:03! But how to do with only six (6) choices? After 1:03, the Jets have nothing but a pair of 3rd, 4th, 6th and 7th. In contrast, the Steelers have a total of ten (10) choices: 1:20, 2:20, 3:02 and 3:19, 4:20, 5:02, three in the sixth round and one seventh. These are added to the following amounts on the Johnson and Harvard tables of values:

It's pretty simple. Anyone who wants a transcendent star should prefer the draft Jets, but anyone with a team to build should opt for the Steelers. The Steelers are the first and the Jets the second, so why not trade positions? And you know what? This mega-trade works well for both sides! Here is a pair of simulacra that I have put together to illustrate this point:

N.Y. JETS (Team Needs = Two C / G, 4-3 EDGE, OT, BC, WR, TE, RB2 and DT)

• 1:20 – Edge Rusher Clelin Ferrell or DL / Edge Rashan Gary. The Jets hired Gregg Williams as the new defensive coordinator. Steeler Nation has known him well since his stay in Cleveland. 4-3 Edge Rushers is one of his top priorities, ideally big and long guys. The Ferrell and Gary players are perfect, and one of the two should be available at 1:20. ALTERNATIVE PICK: Edge Brian Burns, Edge Sweatshirt, or C Garrett Bradbury (With whom I would leave if Edge Rushers was later available).
• 2h20 – OT Yodny Cajuste, or OT Greg Little, or C / G Elgton Jenkins. OUTLOOK FALLING: Edge Charles Omenihu or Edge Jachai Polite. ALTERNATIVES HUGELY LUCKY: C Garrett Bradbury, C / G Erik McCoy, C / G Chris Lindstrom, or OT / G / C Dalton Risker (No one will fall so far in a fair and equitable world but hey, you know the rest).
• 3:02 – Best option to CB. Gregg Williams' pressure-based defense requires versatile angles, but it also has the flexibility to cope with moderate limitations. The beginning of the 2nd to the middle of the 3rd is the [only] ideal place in this class to fulfill this order. My choices for New York would include: Julian Love (smaller than the ideal but a complete player); Amani Oruwariye (unlikely to be there); one of the big corners with only ok C.O.D. as Justin Layne, Trayvon Mullen (unlikely to be here), or Rock Ya Sin; or a slightly undersized press specialist, like your David Long.
• 3:19 – WR Emanuel Hall or equivalent. Emanuel Hall is an extremely serious threat that would give Sam Darnold a brand new type of weapon that would free Quincy Enunwa. ALTERNATIVE PICKS: JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Riley Ridley, Antoine Wesley, or Hardman mole. Do not dwell on specific names. This year's WR class is incredibly rich in 3-6 rounds this year and you should feel free to choose your favorite. There is necessarily one. SECOND ALTERNATIVE: If the Jets do not receive attacks in the second run, try this year's little school OT Tytus Howard.
• 4:20 – G / C Connor McGovern or G Nate Davis. Alternative peaks: This obviously assumes the main choices above. The WR, RB and TE are thick on the ground if the model works differently.
• 5:03 – TE Josh Oliver or TE Dax Raymond or TE Alize Mack or TE Foster Moreau or any of the other students who should be available.
• 6:02 – OT / G Max Scharping or G / OT Bobby Evans or OT Isaiah Prince. Problem. Resolute Bleeping All three are solid Grade B / C prospects that should become more than depth. I'd expect that they're entering the middle class turn 4, but this year is different because the O-Line has so many good prospects for the days 1 and 2 The triple dive on OL makes sense for the Jets for three reasons: safety, depth, and because they now have the added choice of taking the BPA flight. ALTERNATIVE PICKS: The RB cluster will be far away to be exhausted, so maybe RB Rodney Anderson (Injured Star) it's falling? There may also be a deep piece stolen from DT and probably WR if you think that a double dip is needed.
• 6:19 – RB Devine Ozigbo. "Lev Bell Lite". You can connect to many other names. The class has little RB1 to offer but is well beyond the bearings with RB2 and RB3.
• 6:34 – Boom or Bust # 1
• 7:05 – Boom or Bust # 2

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

• 1:03 – Edge / Buck ILB Josh Allen or Mack ILB Devin White. Drop. The. Hammer. Either or both would push the Steelers' defense above all else.
• 03:04 – BPA outside the CB or FS with coverage capacity. Pittsburgh needs one of them, but the second is much more desirable. The Steelers will target either a corner that passes in front of the Jets at 3:02, or one of the Safety as Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Darnell Savage, Deionte Thompson, or Amani Hooker. ALTERNATIVE PICK: FS Will Harris or an offensive weapon.
• 3:29 – WR / TE or TE / WR. ALTERNATIVE PICKS: If the team leaves with Josh Allen at 1:03, I'll get the Mack ILB here: Ben Burr-Kirven, Blake Cashman, Terrill Hanks, David Long, Bobby Okereke, Germaine Pratt, or Cameron Smith.
• 4:03 – TE / WR or WR / TE.
• 6:23 – RB3
• 7:03 – Edge Malik Reed. Because.

Targeted Trade – Lions get 1:20 and counterpart AB; The Steelers get 1:08

Rumor has it that Lions would aggressively seek to meet the essential needs of the team, where this year's talent tends to come together. The number one priority is probably a successful pass, but the Matt Patricia program will accommodate an Edge player or a penetrating DT and requires only a good talent for that work rather than an excellent one. 1:20 should be about right for this description (see below). After that, the Lions want help in the defensive field, a very good C / G and a receiving weapon. Good points for these positions? Just around, where Pittsburgh chooses in the ranks of 2/3. Add at the beginning a 5th sweetener and this trade is very useful for Lions.

Meanwhile, Steeler Nation understood that the exchange between Antonio Brown and Pittsburgh would have been a mere exchange of choices at 1:20 and 1:09. What poetry to end up with 1:08 instead. You can not complain about that!

But does the exchange still make sense when we look at "the numbers"? Again, it depends on the value you give to the choices:

Johnson's graph says: "Not quite Steelers yet …" The Harvard graph says: "You are going to steal Lions …" It sounds like a classic win-win for me. Oh yes, and the model says pretty much the same thing.

DETROIT LIONS

1h20 – DT Christian Wilkins or DE Clelin Ferrell or DE / DT Rashan Gary. One of them should be there at 1:20. If the Lions had been satisfied with one of the three at 1:08, they would let themselves go at the price of the additional consideration. nothing and provides two good shots to B + and B- perspectives later. ALTERNATIVE PICKS: CB Greedy Williams, CB Byron Murphy, or CB Deandre Baker.

2:11 [Currently owned] and 3:02 [from Oakland via Pittsburgh] – Just like the Jets, Detroit wins in this trade because the start of the 2nd to the middle of the 3rd is the good compromise for the CB and C / G talents of this project, and also marks the beginning of the long career of the WR talent. I will say that Lions go with … C Garrett Bradbury, C / G Erik McCoy, C / G Chris Lindstrom, or OT / G / C Dalton Risker at 2:11 (Steal City for big cats!), then use the 3:02 pick from the same Corners list: Julian Love, Justin Layne, Trayvon Mullen, Rock Ya Sin, or David Long. ALTERNATIVE PICKS: CB Amani Oruwariye at 2:11; a good deal at 3:02 like Deebo Samuel or one of the other ten that I could list. See the BTSC Big Board if you want more names.

3:24 [Currently owned] – Best option at WR. There should be a really good one.

4:09, 5:03 [from Oakland via Pittsburgh] and 5:08 – Rich pickings! Corners will soon be lacking, but it's the perfect place to catch a B + ILB, a TE to compete with Jesse James (good luck in the young man from Detroit!), Another player from the O-Line or the next. level of penetrating DL players like DT Khalen Saunders, DT Daylong Mack, or DT Trysten Hill. Perhaps even DT Gerald Willis. And do not forget the four (4!) Series 6 and 7 selections that should allow Detroit to selectively swap or attract all the players Patricia might want to exchange C players with potential starters of grade B.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

1:08 Mack ILB Devin White. And that's the rub! I'm not sure that I would do this job to pass for Devin Bush, but I would do it for White. So it's a day-to-day exchange and not something you would do in advance, as it could be with the Jets / Steelers transaction.

2:20 [No need to continue]

This article has been extremely long, but it boils down to a simple point with two examples. The Jimmy Johnson Trade Chart is just one of many ways to judge gross value and, in many cases, tends to overestimate the value of first choice. Teams like the Jets (who need more than one A + and various 7 to 10 years of Grade B) and Lions (almost 1:20 barely equal to 1:08 and a second extra day is huge) explain why. They are going to have more of a Harvard perspective on this class than Johnson's.

Steelers fans have viewed Big Trade as incredibly expensive. This is simply not the case. It's all about finding the right partner.