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If they could, most NBA coaches would just play their best players for 48 minutes per game, every game. After all, it’s the stars who drive a lot of team performances, and most teams are at their best when their best players are on the floor.
Of course, we know that can’t happen. The science of minute management is pretty straightforward and most teams have taken it into account. As proof, one need only look at the rapid decline over the last decade and a half in the number of players receiving more than 36 minutes per night. This was pretty standard for the best and even the second best player on a team; these days it is extremely rare.
Players who spend less time on the pitch necessarily force their teams to do without them more often. Take LeBron James, for example. During the 2004-05 season, James averaged 42.4 minutes per game, a league-high, so his Cleveland Cavaliers only had to deal with about six minutes without LeBron per night. . Fast forward 16 years, and James’ 2020-21 version averages “only” 34.7 minutes per night. So the Lakers have to figure out what to do without LeBron on the ground for just under 14 minutes per game.
Considering the Lakers’ net score drops from plus-9.9 with James on the ground to minus-4.0 without him, according to NBA Advanced Stats, that’s a pretty big issue. The same goes for the fact that LA’s net rating goes from plus-9.1 to plus-3.0 when James’ co-star Anthony Davis leaves the floor. Davis averaged 32.8 minutes per game, which means the Lakers also face around 15 minutes without Davis per night – at least until his recent injury. For at least the next few weeks, they’ll have to do without him for the 48.
To avoid overlapping the minutes without James and the minutes without Davis, Lakers coach Frank Vogel likes to shift his two stars into the rotation, as we saw when we looked at the rotation patterns across the first 29 games. of the 2020-2021 season. LeBron and AD usually start together, then LeBron comes out halfway through the first quarter while Davis stays in the game. LeBron then enters towards the tail of the first, while Davis exits. Then Davis comes in and James leaves; and finally, they sync again for the last few minutes of the second trimester. Then they do the same song and dance after half time.
Because of this amazement, the Lakers are able to downplay the number of minutes they play with James and Davis on the floor. In games, they have both adjusted, according to pbpstats.com they have only been benched together for 7.8% of the Lakers’ minutes, with most of those coming into the fourth quarter of games already underway.
LeBron and AD aren’t usually on the bench together
Field minutes and clean score for Los Angeles Lakers roster combinations involving LeBron James and Anthony Davis, 2020-21 season
| Minutes | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sure | Deactivated | Total | Share | Net score |
| Both | No | 517 | 46.4% | +14.21 |
| James | Davis | 272 | 24.4 | +5.06 |
| Davis | James | 238 | 21.4 | -0.93 |
| No | Both | 87 | 7.8 | +1.06 |
The Lakers’ Staples Center brothers, the Clippers, take the same approach with their two stars, preferring to downplay the time they spend with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George on the bench. There’s a good reason for them to do so: The Clippers were outscored by 1.59 points per 100 possessions with their two stars on the sideline, as they outscored their opponents with both players in the game. and vastly outclassed them with at least one of the two on the floor.
The Clippers Maximize Time With Their Stars
Field minutes and net standings for Los Angeles Clippers roster combinations involving Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, 2020-21 season
| Minutes | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sure | Deactivated | Total | Share | Net score |
| Both | No | 474 | 49.4% | +18.57 |
| Leonardo | George | 217 | 22.6 | +3.94 |
| George | Leonardo | 212 | 22.1 | +3.64 |
| No | Both | 57 | 5.9 | -1.59 |
Of course, stunning isn’t the only way to go. Some teams prefer to tie up their stars in the rotation, thus maximizing the time they spend together on the floor – even if that means the team has to play with both of them on the bench more often than is ideal. There is perhaps no better example of this than in Golden State.
The Warriors have stuck Stephen Curry and Draymond Green in the rotation for years – through many iterations of their squad. When both are healthy, it is extremely rare to see one of them on the ground without the other.
The Denver Nuggets approach things the same way, largely tying Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray in the rotation. The chemistry between their two stars is so great that it makes sense to have them spend most of their time on the ground side by side. The setup with the two players on the ground together is also the only one to have beaten their opponents so far this season, although the scoring margins of other units have been affected by Denver’s recent wave of injuries to support players.
The Nuggets keep their stars together
Field minutes and net standings for Denver Nuggets roster combinations involving Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray, 2020-21 season
| Minutes | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sure | Deactivated | Total | Share | Net score |
| Both | No | 811 | 59.2% | +9.85 |
| Jokic | Murray | 185 | 13.5 | -5.34 |
| Murray | Jokic | 171 | 12.5 | -2.81 |
| No | Both | 202 | 14.8 | -2.59 |
Naturally, building a rotation becomes a bit more complicated if your team has more than two fundamental players. With three pillars of rotation, a trainer has more options. Matching the minutes of three players seems a little silly. If you can get somewhere in between most and all of the game with at least one of your top three guys on the floor, why wouldn’t you? Still, coaches can take different paths to get there.
The Milwaukee Bucks, for example, employ something like a three-way staging between Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, and Jrue Holiday, who each average between 32.5 and 33.8 minutes per night. Antetokounmpo usually comes out halfway through the first and third quarters, leaving Middleton and Holiday on the floor. It also usually begins the second and sometimes fourth trimesters alongside the bench units. Meanwhile, coach Mike Budenholzer appears to mix and match that of Holiday and Middleton returning to play alongside Giannis for a few minutes before the others return. Thankfully, all of the iterations of these units outperform their opponents, except for the one that has all three stars off the bench, which was rarely used outside of the already decided fourth quarter of games.
Compare this strategy with that of the Jazz, which correspond to Mike Conley and Rudy Gobert, and stagger this duet with Donovan Mitchell. Conley and Gobert leave the floor in the middle of the first, while Mitchell stays. A few minutes later, they switch, Mitchell taking his first remainder of the match. Mitchell then returns to play a few minutes without his leader and his cross, who join him on the ground to end the half. This process usually repeats after halftime and works extremely well for Jazz, who dominate Conley / Gobert’s minutes against second units and do very well when Mitchell has to play without either of them in the game. Utah can do it because they trust each of Joe Ingles, Jordan Clarkson and Derrick Favors to take over in the rotation.
The Raptors go even further. Toronto seems to believe it has four base players, with Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby averaging between 33.8 and 36.6 minutes per game.
Raptors coach Nick Nurse usually matches Lowry and Anunoby and fails this duet with VanVleet and Siakam, who are also paired. He will also use different combinations of these four players on occasion, although he prefers to have at least two of them in the game almost at all times. It might be advisable for Nurse to mix things up a bit, as Lowry / Anunoby-only units and Siakam / VanVleet-only units have net negative ratings so far this season.
Raptors juggle their top four players
Field minutes and net standings for Toronto Raptors roster combinations involving Kyle Lowry, Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet and OG Anunoby, 2020-21 season
| Minutes | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sure | Deactivated | Total | Share | Net score |
| All | No | 262 | 41.9% | +4.01 |
| Lowry • OG | Siakam • FVV | 82 | 13.1 | -10.29 |
| Siakam • FVV | Lowry • OG | 73 | 11.7 | -21.05 |
| Siakam • FVV • OG | Lowry | 57 | 9.1 | -19.10 |
| Lowry • Siakam • FVV | AND | 30 | 4.8 | +13.96 |
| Lowry • Siakam | FVV • OG | 28 | 4.5 | +10.56 |
| Lowry • FVV • OG | Siakam | 20 | 3.2 | +29.62 |
| Lowry | Siakam • FVV • OG | 17 | 2.7 | -12.73 |
| FVV • OG | Lowry • Siakam | 15 | 2.4 | +40.00 |
| Lowry • Siakam • OG | FVV | 15 | 2.4 | -32.26 |
| FVV | Lowry • Siakam • OG | 13 | 2.1 | -25.00 |
The Raptors still have plenty of time to turn things around if they want to. It will be fascinating to see if or how that rotation changes now that Anunoby has returned from the calf injury that kept him from playing 10 games, especially considering how Norman Powell has performed as a starter in his absence. Because barring injury or some sort of roster change (like a trade or a free agent signing), those changes just don’t happen that often – at least not for star players.
Sometimes it takes years for coaches to convince players that a rotation needs to be changed, and sometimes it even takes a new coach to implement that change. Players are creatures of habit, after all, and that extends to the way they get in and out of the game. This is, among other reasons, why it’s extremely important for coaches to make these good decisions.
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