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We already know who will be two of the last four teams in the NFL playoffs after the Bills and Packers advance from the divisional round on Saturday, and we’ll soon know they are full. Either defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs will make a trip home to the AFC title game for a record-breaking third straight season, or it will be the Cleveland Browns (!) Who will visit the stadium. Arrowhead today. The Browns are playing for house money after winning their first playoff game in 26 years, but that doesn’t mean they’re taking this one lightly.
Let’s break down the match.
How to watch
Dated: Sunday January 17 | Time: 3:05 p.m. ET
Location: Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Missouri)
TV: CBS | Current: CBS All Access
To follow: CBS Sports app
When the Browns have the ball
Unless they’re in a game like they did last week against the Steelers, the Browns are actually a heavier passing team than you might think. As of Week 12 (a game that followed a three-game streak where all of their games were played in bad weather), the Browns have a 59% success rate in neutral situations, according to Sharp Football Stats. This is the ninth in the league, and a little higher than the league’s 54% average during that time.
This stretch coincided with one of the most successful periods of play in Baker Mayfield’s career. Including last week’s game against the Steelers, Mayfield is 165 of 255 (64.7 percent) for 1976 yards (7.75 per attempt), 14 touchdowns and just one interception. The Browns’ extensive use of gameplay action and bootleg concepts play on Mayfield’s strengths, allowing him to streamline readings and clearer launch paths when he gets to the perimeter. He took full advantage of it, so the Browns’ offense was very successful.
The Kansas City defense hasn’t faced as many contraband action this season, with teams throwing just 51 such passes, per Pro Football Focus and Tru Media. They allowed 33 completes for 281 yards, five touchdowns, one interception and a 103.5 passer rating on those plays. Mayfield threw 68 smuggled passes (about 33% more than the number the Chiefs faced on defense), completing 45 for 702 yards, four scores, one pick and a 113.7 rating that placed sixth among qualified passers-by. He also added 57 yards on six pushes.
We started with the passing game here because just as the Browns might want to set the clock right and turn that game into a brawl, that just won’t happen. The Chiefs’ offense is too explosive and, as we will detail below, has such a match advantage in one particular area that they are bound to score a lot of points. Which means the Browns are going to have to find a way to keep up. The most likely way for them to do this is to create big plays with their playing passes, with Mayfield hitting one of his receivers on a crosser or a deep ball on the perimeter.
Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt will certainly have their opportunities. And they could even do very well with them. Kansas City’s running defense isn’t at all impressive, ranking 31st in the league in Football Outsiders DVOA and 25th in adjusted line yards. But the rules of football dictate that once you own the ball the other team will own it then, with the exception of a turnover on the punt or kickoff. You can’t just keep the ball out of Mahomes’ hands throughout the game. And we’ve seen teams like, say, the Dolphins, try to take the lead quickly and hope that’s enough to carry them, to no avail. The Chiefs can turn a double-digit deficit into a double-digit lead in moments. You know, like they did a couple of times in last year’s Super Bowl race.
The Browns should be able to lead the ball more effectively than most of the Chiefs’ opponents. First off, they’re pretty good at it, with Chubb and Hunt leading a unit that finished the season seventh in DVOA peak offense. They have a great offensive line, assuming they can get everyone healthy this weekend. (Joel Bitonio is still on the COVID-19 list, JC Tretter and Wyatt Teller have been limited in practice, and Jack Conklin has sat down.) Kevin Stefanski, Alex Van Pelt, and Bill Callahan do an amazing job designing their game. running and layering the passing attack, which contributes to the success of both sides of the game plan.
But the Chiefs have been beaten exactly twice by a team that has scored under 30 points in the past three seasons. You have to put crooked numbers if you want to compete. And that means a lot will roll over Mayfield’s right shoulder, and his ability to effectively distribute the ball in short and middle play, and to hit targeted shots on the pitch.
When the chefs have the ball
There is one player who, in my opinion, is the main reason the Chiefs will win this game. And it’s not Patrick Mahomes. It’s Travis Kelce. The Browns in recent years have not placed a very high value on linebacker or safety positions, and that has made them extremely vulnerable at the opposite tight ends.
The Browns have placed 28th in the DVOA on tight-toed shots this season, by Football Outsiders, allowing players like Mark Andrews (5-58-2; 5-78-0), Drew Sample and CJ Uzomah (11- 87-1 combined); 5-52-0 for Sample in rematch), Dalton Schultz (4-72-1), Dallas Goedert and Richard Rodgers (7-125-2 combined), Anthony Firkser and MyCole Pruitt (6-73-1 combined) , and Chris Herndon (4-34-1) to go for big games against them. Kelce, obviously, is considerably better than all of those players and poses a huge confrontation problem for Cleveland linebackers and safeties, just as he does for players in those positions on every team in the league.
Kelce has also had a completely absurd run throughout the regular season, recording at least seven catches in eight straight games, as well as at least 68 yards and / or one touchdown in each of them. His full season pace in those eight games was 130-1830-12. Yeah. It is a problem. Not that there are answers for him that exist elsewhere in the league, but the Browns really, really don’t have them.
Denzel Ward will likely be back on the pitch and that will help the Browns cope with Tyreek Hill, but A. Ward is coming out of an extended absence related to COVID-19, and he has indicated he has been hit extremely hard by the virus; and B. the Chiefs vary often enough in the way they use Hill that he ends up shaking any possible shadow cover from Ward a few times, and it only takes one big game for him to trigger. in a given match.
The way the Browns take this one off the Chiefs is to absolutely dominate the line of scrimmage on that side of the ball. This implies that Myles Garrett is showing himself to be so unstoppable that the Chiefs have no choice but to keep an extra man for protection, pulling a receiver out of the way. This involves Sheldon Richardson and Larry Ogunjobi gaining very quickly on the inside, forcing Mahomes into scramble mode as soon as he reaches the peak of his fall, and never allowing him to throw in rhythm. This implies that Garrett and Adrian Clayborn are keen to contain and not let Mahomes go into improvisation mode. This especially involves linebackers and defensive backs guessing correctly, each time, what Mahomes is going to do with the ball if and when he breaks to the outside.
Basically it implies that the Browns’ defense is playing a perfect game. And that seems to be too high an order.
Last Chances:
Kansas City Chiefs -8
Prediction: Chiefs 33, Browns 20
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