[ad_1]
Welcome to the Conference Championship Sunday! Our first game is the one with two of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, with Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers hosting Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. There are of course other stars all over the field, from Davante Adams and Aaron Jones to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and from Jaire Alexander and Za’Darius Smith to Shaq Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul. There are even some incredibly intriguing clashes on the offensive and defensive fronts, as this game also features some of the best linemen in the league.
It should be a fascinating game, so let’s break it down.
How to watch
Dated: Sunday January 24 | Time: 3:05 p.m. ET
Location: Lambeau Field (Green Bay, Wisconsin)
TV: Fox | Current: fuboTV (Try for free)
To follow: CBS Sports app
When the Buccaneers have the ball
Let’s cut out a few sections from last week’s Rams-Packers preview, which are equally relevant here:
Green Bay has posted a fairly solid 18th in DVOA race defense this season, but a more disturbing 23rd in adjusted lines, indicating that the Packers have lost the battle more often in the trenches …
In their three losses this season, the Packers have yielded 158, 173 and 140 rushing yards to opponents who averaged 4.5, 5.1 and 3.8 yards per attempt. The Colts made a comeback in the second half, pushing their way into field goals and tightening their defense. Tampa’s first lead came via a pick-six and another interception came back to the 2-yard line, so it was only Minnesota that really came out and just passed the ball down Green Bay’s throat since. the jump. But even the Vikings didn’t take the lead for good until the third quarter and didn’t put things aside until Dalvin Cook made a screen pass 50 yards from home .
Can the Bucs take an early lead this time around, if they just run Leonard Fournette and / or Aaron Jones down the Packers’ throat? The Rams tried to do it with Cam Akers, but fell behind because their defense allowed two touchdowns and a basket on Green Bay’s first three drives of the game. They’ve managed to keep Akers involved the rest of the way, but once you come down two points your whole offensive pace gets messed up.
The Bucs tried to race the Saints early and often in the last week, and it hasn’t really worked out for them. It wasn’t until they switched to a more pass-centric offense that they started snagging crooked numbers on the scoreboard – but even that required a lot of help from the defense, the putting up with short fields. Tom Brady didn’t really tear things up, throwing just 199 yards on 33 attempts.
But Green Bay’s pass defense isn’t as strong as the Saints’. The Packers have Jaire Alexander to potentially follow Mike Evans and the combination of Za’Darius Smith, Preston Smith, Rashan Gary and Kenny Clark up front, but there are more places to enjoy Green Bay cover than there are. New Orleans. If Alexander overshadows Evans, it places Kevin King on Antonio Brown on the opposite side and Chandon Sullivan on Chris Godwin in the slot machine. These seem to be the most likely confrontations. Godwin over Sullivan would be a strong advantage for the Buccaneers, as would Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate against one of the linebackers the Bucs can match them on. (This is less of an obvious benefit if packers use their safeties in the blanket.)
However, to harness any of these advantages, you have to win the battle along the line. Tampa has one of the best offensive pass-protection lines in the NFL this season, largely preventing the rush from Brady’s face and allowing him to throw from a clean pocket. If they give him time against that secondary Packers, he’ll find openings. But if the Smiths and / or Gary start forcing Brady out of his place and he has to buy time or reset after maneuvering in the pocket, this is where the Packers could have the advantage. Tampa can keep the passing stroke off balance with play passes, but the Packers would probably be fine if the Bucs decided to run rather than pitch. They preferred to be beaten by Fournette and Jones rather than Brady, you’d think.
When the Packers have the ball
The Buccaneers have finished this season, just like last season, with one of the best defenses in the NFL. Tampa placed sixth in yards allowed, eighth in runs allowed and fifth in defensive efficiency, according to the Football Outsiders DVOA. But like last year, the Bucs’ defensive success hinges on their ability to stop the race: They have placed first in defense against the DVOA race in each of the past two seasons. For this reason, it seems unlikely that it will be a game controlled by Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams and AJ Dillon – even though Alvin Kamara has come off the pitch several times in the past week.
Due to this focus on racing, however, the Bucs can be beaten in the air. In fact, they apparently encourage opposing attacks to throw, depending on their alignment. According to Pro Football Focus and Tru Media, the Buccaneers have used at least seven defensemen in the box for 59% of their defensive shots, about 5% more often than the average team in the league (54.2%). The same goes for their use of eight-player boxes: Tampa has lined up this way 31.6% of the time, compared to a league average of 25.5%.
The more defenders there are in the box, the more advantageous it is for the opponent to pass instead of running. That was true against the Bucs, with opponents posting their best EPA per game rate against the Tampa eight-man boxes, according to Tru Media.
Well, do the Bucs really want to play a defense that encourages the Packers to hand the ball over to Aaron Rodgers, rather than Jones, Williams and Dillon? I certainly wouldn’t. But that’s the Tampa philosophy for most of the past two years. They managed to be successful because they are doing such a good job of stopping the opposing racing games. and put pressure on the opposing quarterbacks. The Bucs have pressured the QB 36.3% of withdrawals this season, a rate that far exceeded the league average of 30.7%.
Can they keep the pressure on the Packers? Generally, this is easier said than done. Rodgers was the second least rushed quarterback in the league this season, with rushers only entering his face 23.8 percent of the time. And it’s not like he got rid of the ball too quickly for the rush to get there. His 2.78-second average pitching time, per PFF, was just around the league average of 2.76 seconds. He just has incredible pass protection. Of course, the team’s best passing protector has been left tackle David Bakhtiari, who is now out for the season after tearing his ACL. The Packers held up very well without him last week, but A. the strength of the Rams’ pass rush is on the inside, not at the edge; and B. Aaron Donald was injured and clearly not himself. This week may pose a bigger challenge for the guys up front, with Shaq Barrett, Jason Pierre-Paul and others taking off.
The Packers are also expected to have considerable confrontational advantages in the passing game. Davante Adams is pretty much nowhere to be found, as he showed last week against Jalen Ramsey. The Bucs may or may not use Carlton Davis to follow him, but that doesn’t seem to matter. Adams will beat whoever Tampa puts in front of him. But Green Bay should also have advantages with Robert Tonyan in the middle (the Bucs ranked 25th in DVOA against close-toed shots), as well as Jones and Williams out of the backfield (only two teams allowed more passes to running backs) . With so many options for Rodgers, the Packers should be able to move the ball.
Naturally, the answer to that is that every word was equally true when the Packers and Bucs played earlier this season, and the Bucs worked their way to a 38-10 victory. A repeat, however, seems unlikely. The Packers actually led this game 10-0 and looked to be a bit on a roll, only for Rodgers to be unusually picked by Sean Murphy-Bunting, and then almost by Jamel Dean on the next possession. He would go on to throw just three more interceptions year round. Chances are he takes care of the ball and sculpts things.
Last Chances:
Green Bay Packers -3.5
Prediction: Packers 27, Buccaneers 21
[ad_2]
Source link